Well-Informed-Ischemia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$4.29K

Hit rate

96.5%

Resolved

507

Trades

1,488

lifetime

Volume

$1.94M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.31K

Open exposure

$35.9K

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 10-27 20:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

55% 90% +$25,329

Politics

26% 67% -$1,727

Crypto

13% 83% +$61,562

Sports

3% 68% +$4,435

Tech

3% 100% +$7,605

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+100,000	$29,000	26¢	$26.5K	-$2,500	10-07 21:17
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+9,726	$5,712	52¢	$5.1K	-$654	10-21 19:26
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+3,405	$2,263	64¢	$2.2K	-$101	10-21 19:26
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	+2,998	$753	49¢	$1.5K	+$726	10-17 00:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+2,506	$1,722	12¢	$313	-$1,409	06-19 18:00
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	+817	$308	37¢	$303	-$5	10-17 15:38
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	+50	$26	51¢	$25	-$1	10-17 03:06
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	+625	$351	2¢	$10	-$341	10-10 21:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?	24	$218.9K	218,948	320,033	-101,085	No	+$939	05-18 02:22
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	42	$192.3K	189,293	40,136	+149,156	No	+$11,774	06-04 00:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$158.6K	80,100	80,100	+0	Yes	+$1,440	05-09 18:40
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	15	$89.9K	90,000	0	+90,000	Yes	+$90	06-07 22:09
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	22	$75.6K	75,704	0	+75,704	Yes	+$76	05-16 00:02
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	3	$74.9K	74,976	0	+74,976	No	+$75	05-30 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	18	$46.5K	101,166	25,000	+76,166	Up	+$47,179	10-06 20:36
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$30.9K	16,349	16,349	+0	No	+$1,721	05-15 17:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$29.9K	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	+$90	06-17 18:00
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	17	$29.7K	34,144	4,958	+29,186	Yes	+$1,353	07-07 19:30
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	1	$29.0K	100,000	0	+100,000	open	—	10-07 21:17
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	5	$26.2K	26,318	0	+26,318	Yes	+$125	05-16 20:06
efa por2 ard 2026 08 11 first half total 1pt5	5	$25.9K	27,154	0	+27,154	Over	+$1,291	08-12 13:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$22.9K	27,606	0	+27,606	Yes	+$4,669	07-25 16:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	3	$21.2K	10,773	10,773	+0	No	+$313	05-30 12:15
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	15	$20.2K	20,354	354	+20,000	Yes	+$211	07-20 16:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$40	06-17 01:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	2	$19.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$290	05-30 12:15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	3	$17.7K	17,731	0	+17,731	Yes	+$18	05-23 03:41
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	19	$17.7K	22,179	0	+22,179	Yes	-$1,450	05-16 00:04
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	2	$17.6K	17,610	0	+17,610	Yes	+$20	05-19 18:06
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	1	$16.5K	17,549	0	+17,549	Yes	+$1,053	09-07 21:35
Bitcoin above 84,400 on October 6, 10PM ET?	2	$15.1K	15,350	0	+15,350	No	+$204	10-07 02:06
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	1	$13.8K	13,823	0	+13,823	Yes	+$16	05-19 18:05
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	8	$13.6K	14,721	0	+14,721	Yes	+$1,105	06-27 12:59
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?	4	$13.0K	13,022	0	+13,022	No	+$13	05-14 20:34
Spain/USA vs. France/Germany	4	$12.7K	13,701	0	+13,701	USA	+$1,026	09-13 17:23
Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	1	$12.4K	12,365	0	+12,365	No	+$13	05-30 20:26
nvda close above 200 on june 30 2026	2	$12.0K	12,267	0	+12,267	Yes	+$221	06-30 20:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$12.0K	15,000	0	+15,000	No	+$3,000	09-14 04:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:37:53	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 9.5% to 10.5%?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x5322db…
10-27 20:37:45	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%?	No	BUY	14	40¢	$5	0x71b360…
10-27 00:00:54	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	BUY	505	77¢	$387	0xaee74e…
10-26 23:56:48	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 11%+?	No	BUY	457	84¢	$382	0xeb9992…
10-26 13:34:24	Will "Wildwood" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	616	100¢	$615	0x7c4621…
10-26 13:34:15	Will "Wildwood" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	630	100¢	$629	0x25157f…
10-26 00:01:48	Ethereum above 2,330 on October 25, 8PM ET?	No	BUY	86	94¢	$81	0xa0dec1…
10-23 19:45:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x06a155…
10-22 16:09:20	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	No	BUY	1,008	79¢	$795	0x7de2e2…
10-22 16:03:20	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	No	BUY	3,907	43¢	$1,671	0xc09fdc…
10-22 14:41:15	Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0x470e40…
10-22 12:57:09	Will Legalise Cannabis win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x631a31…
10-22 02:40:24	Will Confluent (CFLT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xf2126f…
10-22 02:40:14	Will Confluent (CFLT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	99	73¢	$72	0x2f841c…
10-21 22:48:32	Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9c9ff8…
10-21 22:48:29	Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	344	1¢	$3	0x8e33cf…
10-21 19:43:51	Halle Berry as Storm?	No	BUY	1,800	83¢	$1,493	0x02eb86…
10-21 19:35:09	Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	841	74¢	$620	0x6d71b8…
10-21 19:31:29	Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	2,836	80¢	$2,259	0xc92b30…
10-21 19:26:39	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9,726	59¢	$5,712	0x237b8a…
10-21 19:26:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,405	66¢	$2,263	0x32db3f…
10-21 19:21:51	Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	41	87¢	$36	0x496e37…
10-21 19:20:24	Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	99	91¢	$90	0xe86fbb…
10-21 01:10:48	First Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xb33710…
10-21 01:10:11	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.5B?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$7	0xaa4ed9…
10-21 01:10:11	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.5B?	No	BUY	320	90¢	$288	0x95689e…
10-21 01:10:05	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.25B?	No	BUY	112	84¢	$94	0x87a911…
10-21 01:07:17	Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	157	76¢	$119	0xf79b69…
10-21 01:06:12	Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	830	87¢	$719	0xe374d1…
10-20 16:18:00	Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	BUY	2,682	80¢	$2,154	0x1313f6…
10-20 16:12:59	Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	8,646	82¢	$7,095	0x602bff…
10-20 15:15:12	Will João Costa record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	129	89¢	$114	0x2b33ae…
10-20 15:13:20	First Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?	Yes	BUY	59	73¢	$43	0x565583…
10-20 08:30:56	Will Göztepe be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	BUY	135	10¢	$14	0xbc60d0…
10-20 08:12:32	Will Göztepe be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xdd8105…
10-20 08:12:26	Will Muamer Tankovic score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xf9397b…
10-20 05:59:06	Will Muamer Tankovic score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x6d2be5…
10-20 03:52:27	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	46	9¢	$4	0x9ca11d…
10-20 02:10:47	Will Muamer Tankovic score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	326	1¢	$3	0x98e90a…
10-20 00:21:24	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	125	9¢	$11	0x9de734…
10-19 18:31:05	Will Göztepe be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	No	BUY	796	77¢	$613	0x4de323…
10-19 18:28:36	Will Muamer Tankovic score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	1,556	86¢	$1,334	0x9546f5…
10-19 18:02:33	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	9¢	$2	0x22f19e…
10-19 18:02:32	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	105	80¢	$84	0x8d234e…
10-19 18:02:32	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	4,955	78¢	$3,877	0x672dbe…
10-19 15:05:05	Will Rasmus Andersson win the 2026-27 James Norris Memorial Trophy?	No	BUY	181	88¢	$160	0xb270c1…
10-19 14:49:45	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xc05f13…
10-19 14:24:29	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x3500f5…
10-19 13:08:32	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5% to 5%?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xbd520f…
10-19 13:06:12	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	720	91¢	$658	0xef3b3a…
10-19 07:46:11	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x4f2144…
10-19 04:23:39	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc45300…
10-19 00:44:42	Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be between 13% and 14%?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x6d5b50…
10-19 00:34:47	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?	No	BUY	234	72¢	$168	0x7064a0…
10-19 00:12:48	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	103	79¢	$81	0xfc5fac…
10-19 00:12:39	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	No	BUY	760	90¢	$684	0x6204ce…
10-19 00:10:56	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	212	69¢	$145	0xce33ba…
10-19 00:02:44	Will Stranger Things rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	No	BUY	1,242	62¢	$766	0xb4aaa7…
10-18 23:59:29	Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be between 13% and 14%?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xc60431…
10-18 23:58:47	Will Seagate (STX) Q1 hard drive exabyte shipments be above 250?	No	BUY	99	83¢	$83	0x891508…
10-18 23:56:44	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	176	70¢	$123	0xb44431…
10-18 23:53:02	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5% to 5%?	No	BUY	409	73¢	$298	0xfc1ac2…
10-18 23:47:11	Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 70% by November 2?	No	BUY	315	69¢	$218	0x8bf6d5…
10-18 23:44:39	Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be between 13% and 14%?	No	BUY	625	89¢	$555	0x505e90…
10-18 23:43:53	Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be below 13%?	No	BUY	192	82¢	$158	0xa23a35…
10-18 23:17:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	105	89¢	$93	0x8bebc1…
10-18 23:17:17	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	1,005	89¢	$894	0x368616…
10-18 23:08:20	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xf1d574…
10-18 23:05:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	256	43¢	$110	0xeefe85…
10-18 23:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	257	43¢	$110	0x3c454c…
10-18 23:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	267	43¢	$114	0x5149e0…
10-18 23:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd6ba5d…
10-18 23:04:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	310	42¢	$130	0x1ecd5e…
10-18 19:56:17	Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	353	14¢	$51	0x244044…
10-18 19:54:02	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	551	64¢	$355	0xe04003…
10-18 17:04:20	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	SELL	162	100¢	$161	0xf83f79…
10-18 16:06:30	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	BUY	1,626	1¢	$16	0xb9162d…
10-18 16:05:08	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	413	70¢	$290	0x3a840f…
10-18 16:03:23	Will "Wuthering Heights" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1,207	75¢	$902	0x5b67d8…
10-18 16:00:05	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	2,952	74¢	$2,184	0x7887f7…
10-18 15:56:57	Will Shrek 5 rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	BUY	155	89¢	$139	0x010a23…
10-18 15:47:11	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x32a736…
10-18 15:03:09	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	BUY	60	1¢	$1	0xbef9de…
10-18 14:25:21	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$1	0x483173…
10-18 14:23:11	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$2	0xd71089…
10-18 14:23:11	Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	No	BUY	3,900	90¢	$3,527	0x3b5ca3…
10-18 14:21:32	Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x047d8a…
10-18 11:27:54	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xd10f63…
10-18 11:27:30	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x6a2b56…
10-18 11:22:00	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x75077f…
10-18 09:38:03	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	85	9¢	$8	0x4f90d3…
10-18 08:32:24	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	70	9¢	$6	0x2eda81…
10-18 07:17:57	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	95	5¢	$5	0x99ae78…
10-18 06:56:02	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0xe63bb1…
10-18 06:41:08	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x8a1ffd…
10-18 06:39:36	Will Jake Bauers lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xb950ec…
10-18 05:53:45	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0x3efa30…
10-18 05:53:39	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0x50f0fb…
10-18 05:24:06	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x4f4d34…
10-18 05:23:06	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	395	8¢	$32	0x36e1c8…