Petty-Mud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.72K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.25K

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

426

Trades

2,514

lifetime

Volume

$151.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$3.52K

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 10-28 03:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

48% 54% -$1,838

Politics

38% 67% +$499

Sports

11% 75% -$342

Crypto

2% 42% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 839 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,850	$604	65¢	$1.2K	+$594	10-27 10:49
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	+861	$524	88¢	$762	+$239	10-27 21:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+700	$651	94¢	$654	+$3	10-19 17:55
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+1,600	$602	34¢	$552	-$50	10-27 19:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	+300	$111	80¢	$239	+$127	10-20 14:20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	+278	-$167	40¢	$111	+$278	10-23 06:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$2	5¢	$0	+$3	10-28 03:10
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+0	-$58	22¢	$0	+$58	09-21 19:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	118	$17.6K	10,828	10,828	+0	No	+$69	10-26 22:26
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	727	$13.8K	97,848	96,530	+1,318	No	+$899	10-26 22:50
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	17	$12.0K	6,281	6,281	-0	No	+$134	06-16 21:28
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	35	$11.8K	6,701	6,701	+0	No	+$871	06-29 17:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$7.6K	4,344	4,343	+0	No	+$795	06-01 00:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	44	$7.2K	8,596	6,746	+1,850	open	—	10-27 10:49
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	25	$6.7K	4,718	3,856	+861	open	—	10-27 21:09
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$4.7K	2,450	2,450	+0	No	+$56	06-29 20:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	12	$4.5K	3,663	3,663	+0	open	—	10-13 18:42
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$4.4K	1,556	3,752	-2,196	No	-$382	05-20 15:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$3.8K	4,623	2,123	+2,500	Yes	-$161	06-17 11:02
Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31?	6	$2.8K	1,485	1,485	+0	No	+$131	09-01 09:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$2.8K	1,609	1,609	+0	No	+$53	06-08 10:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	31	$2.6K	2,005	1,705	+300	open	—	10-20 14:20
putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	4	$2.5K	1,268	1,268	+0	No	+$9	08-03 10:21
will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	6	$2.4K	1,574	1,574	+0	No	-$16	07-03 08:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	30	$2.2K	3,144	2,866	+278	open	—	10-23 06:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$2.2K	2,343	2,343	+0	Yes	-$1,313	06-14 22:59
will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	19	$2.2K	2,059	1,029	+1,029	Yes	-$865	07-01 18:34
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	37	$2.1K	1,902	1,902	+0	open	—	10-27 22:53
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	5	$2.0K	1,060	1,060	+0	No	-$2	08-09 13:38
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$1.6K	821	821	+0	No	+$15	07-19 22:33
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	13	$1.6K	3,847	3,847	+0	No	+$433	06-07 19:34
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by june 30	9	$1.6K	1,463	648	+814	Yes	-$992	06-15 13:12
will bosnia and herzegovina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134474	2	$1.4K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$112	07-01 23:05
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	10	$1.4K	2,641	1,041	+1,600	open	—	10-27 19:13
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	8	$1.2K	680	680	+0	open	—	09-18 03:19
Iran leadership change by December 31?	5	$1.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-09 14:27
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$1.1K	659	659	+0	No	+$180	07-15 21:54
will usd fall to 1pt7m iranian rials by june 30	13	$1.1K	1,114	1,114	+0	Yes	-$476	06-14 23:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 03:10:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	900	4¢	$38	0x379cc4…
10-28 03:08:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	77	4¢	$3	0x4e452d…
10-28 01:43:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	272	4¢	$11	0xa84e58…
10-27 23:21:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	453	4¢	$18	0x1f0e8f…
10-27 23:15:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	66	4¢	$3	0x540d65…
10-27 23:15:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	731	4¢	$29	0xbf9990…
10-27 23:03:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	240	40¢	$96	0x88514f…
10-27 23:03:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xb87d56…
10-27 23:03:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	59	40¢	$24	0x739dae…
10-27 22:53:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	400	45¢	$182	0xcd3c41…
10-27 22:52:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	117	46¢	$53	0x05143d…
10-27 22:52:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x9c3685…
10-27 22:51:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	182	46¢	$83	0xbabe83…
10-27 22:48:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	349	45¢	$157	0x2c54e8…
10-27 22:43:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	350	53¢	$187	0xe186df…
10-27 22:43:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	250	53¢	$134	0xc56ee2…
10-27 22:42:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	600	52¢	$315	0xe9fd00…
10-27 21:34:36	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	193	41¢	$79	0x49e898…
10-27 21:34:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x5ef302…
10-27 21:34:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	17	41¢	$7	0x4248a7…
10-27 21:34:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x35b6ec…
10-27 21:32:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	227	39¢	$89	0x9b36e1…
10-27 21:09:11	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	93	87¢	$81	0x0130d5…
10-27 19:13:51	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	800	35¢	$280	0xe28b1c…
10-27 18:00:42	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0x85f1ee…
10-27 17:35:14	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0x30d980…
10-27 17:35:11	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0xf8f19d…
10-27 17:35:08	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0x790696…
10-27 13:29:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	600	69¢	$413	0x48541c…
10-27 13:23:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	212	68¢	$143	0xc862c3…
10-27 13:23:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	150	68¢	$101	0x3202a2…
10-27 13:23:26	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	238	68¢	$161	0xcc03ee…
10-27 10:50:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	75	63¢	$48	0xaf50a0…
10-27 10:49:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	228	63¢	$144	0xf298ff…
10-27 10:49:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	272	63¢	$172	0x2da25f…
10-27 10:45:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x66fcfe…
10-27 10:45:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x053be6…
10-27 10:45:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xcc9bcd…
10-27 10:45:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xcb4560…
10-27 10:45:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x6f4d70…
10-27 10:44:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xa3f80e…
10-27 10:44:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x9d9b79…
10-27 10:44:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x8e06a2…
10-27 10:44:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x73368e…
10-27 10:44:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x30cffc…
10-27 10:44:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xa43f39…
10-27 10:44:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xa2eecc…
10-27 10:44:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x528596…
10-27 10:44:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x470562…
10-27 10:44:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x3c6cd2…
10-27 10:43:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1	59¢	$1	0x63f820…
10-27 10:43:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0d428f…
10-27 10:43:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xfb78e5…
10-27 10:43:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x14d63a…
10-27 10:43:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x10c7ca…
10-27 10:05:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	63¢	$190	0xef4c0b…
10-27 08:00:56	Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0xee7209…
10-26 22:50:17	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3,000	7¢	$219	0xd2d901…
10-26 22:49:44	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	595	8¢	$48	0xf8b5c2…
10-26 22:49:39	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,086	8¢	$87	0x583eb7…
10-26 22:49:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,340	6¢	$80	0x2aa2a2…
10-26 22:49:14	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	367	6¢	$22	0x9b9f3b…
10-26 22:48:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3,014	6¢	$181	0xb72c07…
10-26 22:48:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x13792e…
10-26 22:48:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0x0659dd…
10-26 22:48:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0x96badc…
10-26 22:48:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x748433…
10-26 22:48:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x1d7184…
10-26 22:48:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x1302ce…
10-26 22:48:56	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	96	6¢	$6	0x22d1be…
10-26 22:48:56	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0x001540…
10-26 22:48:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0xafd38a…
10-26 22:48:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x9607e7…
10-26 22:48:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x42452f…
10-26 22:48:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0x45ba48…
10-26 22:39:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0x90dfec…
10-26 22:39:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x35f63d…
10-26 22:39:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	911	5¢	$48	0x81764b…
10-26 22:36:23	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	218	5¢	$12	0x658cce…
10-26 22:36:15	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0xc0bf71…
10-26 22:36:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	215	5¢	$11	0xd46fba…
10-26 22:35:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0x2452ef…
10-26 22:35:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	509	5¢	$27	0x09e003…
10-26 22:35:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	57	5¢	$3	0x1e6111…
10-26 22:35:33	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	104	5¢	$6	0x4f2cc4…
10-26 22:35:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0x5e0875…
10-26 22:35:17	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	783	5¢	$42	0xf81716…
10-26 22:33:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x9dab28…
10-26 22:33:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0xc3302c…
10-26 22:33:03	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0xc366a0…
10-26 22:32:45	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,752	5¢	$81	0x308bd3…
10-26 22:32:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0xe70d11…
10-26 22:31:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x35f1ca…
10-26 22:30:06	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	506	5¢	$23	0xb0cf82…
10-26 22:29:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	624	5¢	$29	0x7ff58f…
10-26 22:26:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	34	75¢	$25	0xef7f59…
10-26 22:26:48	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xd4ac17…
10-26 22:26:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	70	75¢	$52	0xa60746…
10-26 22:26:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	170	75¢	$127	0x236212…
10-26 22:26:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	17	75¢	$12	0x2615de…