Realized P&L
+$453
Unrealized P&L
-$23
Hit rate
72.6%
Resolved
97
Trades
6,926
lifetime
Volume
$247.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$36
Open exposure
$574
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-12
last 06-10 00:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
49% 60% $-274
Politics
24% 86% +$683
Sports
18% 70% +$165
Crypto
8% 25% $-122
Tech
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 1746 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No -90 $-76 86¢ $-78 $-2 06-01 19:33
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +114 $74 64¢ $74 $-1 06-10 00:26
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No +82 $74 90¢ $73 $-1 06-08 18:56
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No +48 $45 92¢ $44 $-0 06-06 06:38
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +146 $39 24¢ $34 $-5 06-08 21:07
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +27 $23 88¢ $23 +$1 06-09 05:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +25 $22 94¢ $23 +$1 05-29 09:51
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No -23 $-23 99¢ $-23 $-0 05-29 23:05
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +23 $23 98¢ $23 $-0 06-09 23:46
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No +23 $23 99¢ $23 $-0 06-08 11:05
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +31 $23 73¢ $22 $-0 06-07 22:16
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? No +24 $23 91¢ $22 $-0 06-01 06:18
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +77 $20 29¢ $22 +$2 05-31 17:01
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +23 $22 94¢ $22 +$0 06-02 00:32
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No +23 $22 94¢ $22 $-0 06-07 12:48
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +23 $22 89¢ $21 $-1 06-01 22:40
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes +218 $24 $12 $-12 06-09 21:50
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +42 $5 24¢ $10 +$5 06-07 12:26
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No +1 $1 95¢ $1 $-0 06-04 01:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1 $0 95¢ $1 +$0 06-08 21:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes +1 $9 38¢ $0 $-9 05-29 15:28