Crooked-Insurance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

54.9%

Resolved

Trades

14,785

lifetime

Volume

$8.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

52% 38% +$2

Politics

21% 50% +$4

Sports

18% 100% +$1

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+100	$1	1¢	$1	$-0	06-29 04:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	445	$479	60,461	59,824	+637	open	—	04-07 02:17
will dtmf be played first at the super bowl halftime show	202	$197	4,695	4,048	+648	open	—	02-09 00:53
will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	130	$184	6,140	6,210	-70	open	—	03-15 23:28
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	177	$169	6,100	5,609	+491	open	—	04-27 09:08
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	64	$125	2,287	2,303	-15	open	—	03-01 07:47
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	73	$117	4,038	5,338	-1,299	open	—	04-16 02:55
will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	241	$114	16,929	16,929	+0	open	—	03-16 01:39
will nuevayol be played first at the super bowl halftime show	47	$100	890	840	+50	open	—	02-09 00:38
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	140	$92	10,054	10,488	-434	open	—	04-15 05:06
will chlo zhao win best director at the 98th academy awards	127	$92	7,552	7,552	+0	open	—	03-15 21:41
will safaera be played first at the super bowl halftime show	342	$91	9,567	9,567	+0	open	—	02-09 00:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	30	$85	2,170	2,870	-700	open	—	05-26 21:31
will baile inolvidable be played first at the super bowl halftime show	30	$85	608	608	+0	open	—	02-09 00:48
will nguyn duy ngc be the next president of vietnam	220	$83	22,752	21,450	+1,302	open	—	04-06 16:56
will callaita be played first at the super bowl halftime show	303	$81	8,400	7,682	+718	open	—	02-09 00:42
will frankenstein win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	129	$78	4,485	4,705	-220	open	—	03-15 22:39
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	38	$77	3,045	1,487	+1,558	open	—	04-06 04:03
will mia be played first at the super bowl halftime show	467	$77	13,383	13,127	+256	open	—	02-09 00:57
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	47	$73	3,310	3,390	-80	open	—	06-12 02:04
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	25	$73	1,002	900	+102	open	—	04-28 07:05
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	37	$69	2,432	2,272	+160	open	—	01-30 02:35
will me porto bonito be played first at the super bowl halftime show	267	$66	8,217	8,165	+52	open	—	02-09 00:50
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	116	$65	8,583	8,147	+436	open	—	04-15 14:46
will emma stone win best actress at the 98th academy awards	99	$64	5,552	5,517	+34	open	—	03-15 22:27
spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	42	$63	3,083	3,083	+0	open	—	06-12 06:24
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	56	$62	4,060	3,140	+920	open	—	03-08 12:11
will it was just an accident win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	88	$61	2,541	2,541	+0	open	—	03-15 20:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	79	$61	3,987	3,987	+0	open	—	06-21 08:12
will marty supreme win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	46	$58	1,619	1,694	-75	open	—	03-15 17:48
will kate hudson win best actress at the 98th academy awards	102	$58	6,679	7,079	-400	open	—	03-15 23:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 03:50:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xe357f1…
07-20 20:49:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	180	2¢	$4	0x13ec41…
07-20 13:47:04	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	180	1¢	$1	0x7c9b79…
07-20 11:49:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x89aa36…
07-20 11:36:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xe0f00d…
07-19 17:27:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x5b2a37…
07-19 06:50:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x8d1406…
07-19 06:49:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xb69abe…
07-19 03:15:13	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	92	0¢	$0	0x4cdb6f…
07-19 03:15:07	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	110	0¢	$1	0x18e1ca…
07-19 03:15:06	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	485	1¢	$3	0x7f29db…
07-19 03:02:46	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	SELL	505	0¢	$1	0x85cb2a…
07-18 23:13:37	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$1	0xce34ab…
07-18 22:32:01	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	SELL	505	0¢	$1	0xba100d…
07-18 18:09:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x999b41…
07-18 13:42:16	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xb2dd7e…
07-18 12:33:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0xdb56b0…
07-18 12:12:06	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	139	1¢	$2	0x487598…
07-18 11:32:43	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	BUY	128	1¢	$1	0x583060…
07-18 10:05:33	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x6c62a8…
07-18 02:10:31	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb1d51f…
07-17 16:33:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x0ac3a8…
07-17 15:56:40	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd49c7a…
07-17 14:33:15	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x16fcbc…
07-17 14:32:31	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2118da…
07-17 14:13:36	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x8795b4…
07-17 11:58:49	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0xfb2335…
07-17 11:08:19	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	SELL	453	1¢	$5	0x4eb57f…
07-17 10:45:55	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6ed073…
07-17 10:34:45	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x1680b5…
07-17 10:14:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x857799…
07-17 10:07:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x527227…
07-17 09:38:15	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$0	0x3a0ccb…
07-17 08:29:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0x5a745b…
07-17 08:08:21	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	BUY	459	0¢	$0	0x3ff92e…
07-16 08:44:10	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x89e654…
07-16 07:42:32	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x84678a…
07-16 07:42:16	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0x6ed6a1…
07-16 03:17:02	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xf59237…
07-16 02:16:37	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x45593d…
07-16 02:16:29	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x08e0d0…
07-16 00:12:43	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x915270…
07-16 00:04:55	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa79949…
07-16 00:04:52	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa4b7fc…
07-16 00:04:50	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x09823f…
07-16 00:04:49	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x416361…
07-16 00:04:47	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8eef4d…
07-15 23:47:37	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xdf02bc…
07-15 21:56:49	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	69	1¢	$0	0x4396ee…
07-15 21:29:41	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0xb6b0b5…
07-15 18:32:20	world cup goals h2h yamal vspt mbappe 20260604014012402	Yamal	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x7b0a8b…
07-15 15:52:46	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x380473…
07-15 15:15:29	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x9d2d49…
07-15 15:02:50	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x0e0f27…
07-15 14:54:02	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x4e260e…
07-15 14:41:52	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x7fb2e1…
07-15 14:26:46	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x176d0c…
07-15 13:31:26	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf39f50…
07-15 10:53:29	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0xe92f62…
07-15 10:07:28	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x41e33b…
07-15 08:03:52	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc3e4f5…
07-15 07:20:49	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xfc10d6…
07-15 05:01:16	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0x3bd1ea…
07-15 03:37:29	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	SELL	1,234	0¢	$1	0x8e74f5…
07-15 02:36:53	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0x34e282…
07-15 02:35:56	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	66	0¢	$0	0x320541…
07-14 18:00:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xe6fb74…
07-14 16:11:13	world cup fastest goal in a final record broken 20260609182956386	Yes	SELL	105	1¢	$1	0xc53992…
07-14 13:42:31	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x1d6064…
07-14 11:27:07	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0x94bd84…
07-14 11:18:34	world cup goals h2h dembele vspt olise 20260604014137377	Olise	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd3e5c3…
07-14 07:03:47	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	110	1¢	$1	0x9e9311…
07-14 04:31:38	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	158	1¢	$2	0xd94ffc…
07-14 04:31:02	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x994f89…
07-14 04:30:37	Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	146	1¢	$1	0xb560d2…
07-13 23:07:52	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xafdaa2…
07-13 16:44:22	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0x43b243…
07-13 16:31:40	world cup fastest goal in a final record broken 20260609182956386	Yes	SELL	105	2¢	$2	0xae22be…
07-13 16:16:25	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x1eb0e6…
07-13 11:05:47	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x0a74e3…
07-13 09:32:56	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x3115d0…
07-13 06:41:59	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	87	1¢	$1	0xa245a9…
07-13 05:05:55	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$1	0x90240b…
07-13 05:05:52	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0x046d7c…
07-13 04:29:52	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x80277c…
07-13 02:04:34	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0xf12dcb…
07-13 01:17:55	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	51	1¢	$0	0x8eedf9…
07-12 23:12:52	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0xe93414…
07-12 21:32:04	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xfa3621…
07-12 21:00:53	Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x68c360…
07-12 20:53:08	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	260	1¢	$3	0xf16a80…
07-12 20:00:19	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xfc853e…
07-12 19:41:10	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$0	0x1aef09…
07-12 19:37:37	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x014102…
07-12 18:09:38	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0x7ef9d0…
07-12 15:52:47	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	462	0¢	$0	0x9dcd85…
07-12 15:52:47	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	620	0¢	$1	0x004a8f…
07-12 15:52:46	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	334	0¢	$1	0x6f1542…
07-12 15:52:46	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	565	0¢	$1	0x5054f2…
07-12 15:52:46	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	Yes	BUY	53	0¢	$0	0x0e549c…