Trusting-Down — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved (7d)

133

Trades (7d)

287

31,505 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.80K

$335.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$32

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 11-02 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Other

84% 97% +$223

Crypto

13% 86% -$16

Politics

3% 72% -$583

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 299 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-40	-$32	57¢	$-23	+$9	09-05 07:53
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-21	-$3	41¢	$-9	-$5	08-26 20:11
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-40	-$5	1¢	$-1	+$4	08-26 20:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	28	$2.0K	1,030	1,012	+18	No	+$45	03-25 21:25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 11?	3	$1.9K	1,015	861	+154	No	+$0	10-11 01:57
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	13	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$28	02-24 11:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	20	$1.4K	1,010	1,010	+0	Yes	+$73	04-10 17:32
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on August 29?	3	$1.3K	897	392	+504	No	+$1	08-29 09:24
highest temperature in austin on april 15 2026 68 69f	9	$1.1K	733	417	+317	No	+$0	04-14 20:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	21	$935	500	450	+50	No	+$1	05-23 11:10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 10?	7	$889	712	178	+534	No	+$1	05-09 21:48
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 14?	65	$871	872	0	+872	No	+$2	05-14 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 25?	99	$847	848	0	+848	No	+$1	05-25 19:08
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	22	$746	396	396	+0	No	+$0	02-09 15:12
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on May 12?	8	$739	740	0	+740	No	+$1	05-12 12:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$604	615	0	+615	Yes	-$604	02-28 19:20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?	53	$603	304	304	+0	No	+$3	05-16 22:02
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 13?	3	$595	595	0	+595	No	+$1	05-13 08:23
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	48	$582	584	0	+584	No	+$2	05-14 20:14
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 16?	12	$576	583	0	+583	No	+$7	05-16 08:46
bitcoin up or down on january 12	117	$568	1,122	0	+1,122	Up	-$7	01-12 15:52
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	51	$517	518	0	+518	No	+$1	05-16 21:18
highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 21corbelow	3	$509	510	0	+510	No	+$1	04-22 08:29
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 215 239	5	$509	510	0	+510	No	+$1	02-27 21:25
will the price of solana be between 140 150 on january 8	5	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	01-08 17:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on May 11?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-11 21:41
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 4?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-04 14:12
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on May 10?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-09 19:36
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-06 18:51
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 11?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-11 21:41
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	4	$498	500	0	+500	No	+$2	02-24 09:28
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 16?	41	$497	498	0	+498	No	+$1	05-16 09:14
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on May 15?	21	$486	487	0	+487	No	+$1	05-15 10:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 09:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xc766ca…
11-02 09:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6a9be6…
11-02 09:09:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa15185…
11-02 07:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4e7714…
11-01 20:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6e850b…
11-01 20:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa18fa2…
11-01 20:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc8c212…
11-01 19:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x47683f…
11-01 19:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3028a6…
11-01 19:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xd9034b…
11-01 19:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xbc57ef…
11-01 15:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0x187726…
11-01 15:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x11d8ae…
11-01 15:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x14ef25…
11-01 14:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa1d14e…
11-01 14:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7b1af8…
11-01 14:12:06	Will Bitcoin dominance be between 59.00% and 60.00% on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xec0056…
11-01 14:12:06	Will Bitcoin dominance be between 60.00% and 61.00% on October 30?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x5d8a15…
11-01 14:12:06	Will Bitcoin dominance be between 61.00% and 62.00% on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x1c14d8…
11-01 08:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6b96ad…
11-01 08:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x8e1789…
10-31 20:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x313013…
10-31 20:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	102	50¢	$51	0x2c41eb…
10-31 20:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x02e89a…
10-31 20:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x6ba054…
10-31 20:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	120	52¢	$62	0xc6e181…
10-31 20:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x0f9872…
10-31 20:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	75	50¢	$38	0xed60f2…
10-31 20:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x8f7329…
10-31 20:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	34	50¢	$17	0x415849…
10-31 20:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1dae93…
10-31 20:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x3027b5…
10-31 20:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa8b4f5…
10-31 20:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xdec5be…
10-31 20:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8cdbb0…
10-31 20:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x1f90d8…
10-31 20:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xfbf6ed…
10-31 20:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xf6d351…
10-31 20:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe0ac0c…
10-31 20:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x938c4c…
10-31 20:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xe1271e…
10-31 20:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x997af1…
10-31 19:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x696856…
10-31 19:45:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb3cc96…
10-31 19:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x3f4c9e…
10-31 19:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1adb16…
10-31 19:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xe3a497…
10-31 19:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb11a45…
10-31 18:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7a4cdf…
10-31 16:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe2c1ff…
10-31 15:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x154faf…
10-31 15:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1e9350…
10-31 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x314127…
10-31 15:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe45cf7…
10-31 15:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xd43818…
10-31 15:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x05b60d…
10-31 15:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xaaa2c7…
10-31 14:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1a33ec…
10-31 14:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x972df9…
10-31 14:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4eb505…
10-31 13:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x27501e…
10-31 12:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc58a11…
10-31 06:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x28b537…
10-31 06:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x42f784…
10-31 06:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x509082…
10-31 06:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc4e121…
10-31 02:40:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3aba1b…
10-31 02:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x451a2e…
10-30 22:13:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x87d7f2…
10-30 19:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x19ff0a…
10-30 19:03:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc6f36e…
10-30 19:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x85f315…
10-30 19:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x73fec4…
10-30 19:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x971eae…
10-30 18:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb9fe80…
10-30 18:58:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbc1a97…
10-30 18:58:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0f7880…
10-30 18:58:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x59bee2…
10-30 18:58:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc090fc…
10-30 18:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdec519…
10-30 18:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x332ecb…
10-30 18:58:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6c4426…
10-30 18:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x69108c…
10-30 18:58:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc7822a…
10-30 18:58:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x29c70e…
10-30 18:58:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfad70f…
10-30 18:58:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x001929…
10-30 18:57:58	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8ed002…
10-30 18:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa9a076…
10-30 18:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfc22e7…
10-30 18:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xacba08…
10-30 18:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6ffff5…
10-30 18:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x560985…
10-30 18:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x45120b…
10-30 18:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc753b8…
10-30 18:56:16	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa59178…
10-30 18:56:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x892bfb…
10-30 18:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf26d4b…
10-30 18:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9f2074…
10-30 18:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x838a12…