Warm-Vane 0x7d5898…54cfcc
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.66K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.83K
Hit rate
16.3%
Resolved
24
Trades
4,208
lifetime
Volume
$565.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$134
Open exposure
$2.53K
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-18
last 06-30 22:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Politics
62% 40% $-485
Other
33% 25% $-146
Crypto
3% — —
Sports
1% 0% $-1,032
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 246 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -10,620 $-882 15¢ $-1540 $-658 06-14 22:43
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No -358 $-356 100¢ $-356 $-0 06-30 17:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +200 $142 99¢ $199 +$57 06-15 09:34
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +175 $57 95¢ $166 +$109 06-30 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +154 $102 70¢ $107 +$5 06-28 04:02
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No +50 $35 100¢ $50 +$15 06-16 11:11
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +45 $7 95¢ $43 +$36 06-30 17:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +400 $60 10¢ $38 $-22 06-11 20:28
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +6,737 $732 0¢ $17 $-715 07-01 01:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes +4,801 $335 0¢ $5 $-330 06-28 03:45
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,579 $42 0¢ $3 $-39 06-21 08:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +800 $99 0¢ $2 $-97 06-08 11:53
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,100 $188 0¢ $1 $-187 06-12 09:44