(anonymous) 0x7e7c36…54fa1d
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Realized P&L (30d)
-$24
Unrealized P&L
+$421
Hit rate
8.2%
Resolved (30d)
22
Trades (30d)
1,215
1,215 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$27.0K
$27.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$7.73K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-18
last 10-25 02:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
48% 17% -$2
Other
34% 15% -$12
Tech
9% — —
Sports
8% 0% -$11
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
7 active days in 12wk • peak 559 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +1,400 $1,232 98¢ $1.4K +$140 10-25 02:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +600 $480 95¢ $570 +$90 10-24 21:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +684 $458 68¢ $462 +$3 10-25 01:55
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +500 $379 92¢ $460 +$81 10-24 21:47
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +400 $340 82¢ $330 -$10 10-24 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? No +600 $362 55¢ $327 -$35 10-24 21:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +400 $242 80¢ $322 +$80 10-24 20:39
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +400 $324 70¢ $282 -$42 10-24 21:00
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +432 $70 64¢ $274 +$204 10-25 02:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +600 $238 46¢ $273 +$35 10-25 01:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +303 $218 78¢ $235 +$17 10-25 02:31
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +684 $226 32¢ $222 -$3 10-25 01:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +375 $181 54¢ $200 +$19 10-25 02:31
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +200 $156 94¢ $189 +$33 10-24 18:05
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +200 $170 92¢ $185 +$15 10-24 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +200 $176 88¢ $177 +$1 10-24 19:01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +200 $172 88¢ $176 +$4 10-24 16:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +375 $197 46¢ $174 -$23 10-25 01:42
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +200 $176 85¢ $170 -$6 10-25 02:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +205 $166 79¢ $162 -$4 10-24 18:59
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +432 $365 36¢ $158 -$207 10-24 20:50
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +200 $134 68¢ $135 +$1 10-24 14:31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +200 $132 66¢ $133 +$1 10-24 21:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +205 $133 62¢ $126 -$7 10-25 02:31
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? Yes +400 $76 30¢ $118 +$42 10-24 20:54
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +200 $118 53¢ $106 -$12 10-24 17:21
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +200 $130 53¢ $106 -$24 10-24 19:42
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +149 $102 66¢ $98 -$4 10-18 21:56
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +200 $85 47¢ $94 +$9 10-25 01:36
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +200 $70 47¢ $94 +$24 10-24 17:13