(anonymous) 0x7e7c36…54fa1d
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Realized P&L (90d)
-$24
Unrealized P&L
+$345
Hit rate
8.2%
Resolved (90d)
22
Trades (90d)
1,215
1,215 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$27.0K
$27.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$7.73K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-18
last 10-25 02:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
48% 17% -$2
Other
34% 15% -$12
Tech
9% — —
Sports
8% 0% -$11
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
7 active days in 12wk • peak 559 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +1,400 $1,232 98¢ $1.4K +$147 10-25 02:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +600 $480 92¢ $552 +$72 10-24 21:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +684 $458 68¢ $468 +$10 10-25 01:55
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +500 $379 88¢ $438 +$58 10-24 21:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? No +600 $362 61¢ $366 +$4 10-24 21:21
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +432 $365 81¢ $350 -$15 10-24 20:50
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +400 $340 86¢ $342 +$2 10-24 20:26
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +400 $324 78¢ $314 -$10 10-24 21:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +400 $242 74¢ $294 +$52 10-24 20:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +600 $238 39¢ $234 -$4 10-25 01:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +303 $218 76¢ $229 +$11 10-25 02:31
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +684 $226 32¢ $215 -$10 10-25 01:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +375 $197 52¢ $195 -$3 10-25 01:42
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +200 $156 94¢ $188 +$32 10-24 18:05
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +200 $170 92¢ $185 +$15 10-24 16:12
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +375 $181 48¢ $180 -$2 10-25 02:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +200 $176 90¢ $179 +$3 10-24 19:01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +200 $176 88¢ $176 +$0 10-25 02:31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +200 $172 88¢ $175 +$3 10-24 16:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +205 $166 82¢ $169 +$3 10-24 18:59
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +200 $132 68¢ $137 +$5 10-24 21:27
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +200 $134 68¢ $137 +$3 10-24 14:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +205 $133 65¢ $134 +$0 10-25 02:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +200 $118 62¢ $125 +$7 10-24 17:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +400 $158 26¢ $106 -$52 10-24 21:18
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +200 $130 50¢ $101 -$29 10-24 19:42
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +200 $70 50¢ $99 +$29 10-24 17:13
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +149 $102 62¢ $93 -$8 10-18 21:56
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? Yes +400 $76 22¢ $86 +$10 10-24 20:54
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +432 $70 19¢ $82 +$12 10-25 02:31