(anonymous) 0x7e7c36…54fa1d
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Realized P&L (7d)
-$23
Unrealized P&L
+$483
Hit rate
0.1%
Resolved (7d)
18
Trades (7d)
192
1,215 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$12.2K
$27.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$7.81K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-18
last 10-25 02:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
48% 20% -$1
Other
34% 15% -$12
Tech
9% — —
Sports
8% 0% -$11
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
7 active days in 12wk • peak 559 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +1,400 $1,232 100¢ $1.4K +$168 10-25 02:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +600 $480 96¢ $579 +$99 10-24 21:47
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +500 $379 94¢ $468 +$88 10-24 21:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +684 $458 68¢ $462 +$3 10-25 01:55
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +432 $365 84¢ $360 -$4 10-24 20:50
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +400 $340 86¢ $346 +$6 10-24 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +400 $242 82¢ $326 +$84 10-24 20:39
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +400 $324 80¢ $322 -$2 10-24 21:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? No +600 $362 54¢ $321 -$41 10-24 21:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +600 $238 46¢ $279 +$41 10-25 01:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +684 $226 32¢ $222 -$3 10-25 01:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +375 $181 58¢ $217 +$36 10-25 02:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +303 $218 72¢ $217 -$1 10-25 02:31
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +200 $156 96¢ $191 +$35 10-24 18:05
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +200 $170 92¢ $185 +$15 10-24 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +200 $176 88¢ $177 +$1 10-24 19:01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +200 $176 88¢ $177 +$1 10-25 02:31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +200 $172 86¢ $173 +$1 10-24 16:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +205 $166 82¢ $169 +$3 10-24 18:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +375 $197 42¢ $157 -$40 10-25 01:42
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +200 $134 68¢ $135 +$1 10-24 14:31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +200 $132 66¢ $133 +$1 10-24 21:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +205 $133 61¢ $125 -$8 10-25 02:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +200 $118 56¢ $112 -$6 10-24 17:21
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +200 $130 54¢ $107 -$23 10-24 19:42
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +149 $102 66¢ $99 -$3 10-18 21:56
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +200 $70 46¢ $93 +$23 10-24 17:13
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +200 $85 44¢ $88 +$3 10-25 01:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +303 $87 29¢ $86 $0 10-24 19:01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +205 $74 39¢ $80 +$6 10-24 19:21