Chubby-Decade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.52K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

23.4%

Resolved

Trades

643

lifetime

Volume

$145.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$227

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-24 16:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

84% 50% $-3,525

Other

15% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	28	$12.7K	16,591	16,591	+0	open	—	04-09 13:47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	47	$11.8K	14,589	14,589	+0	open	—	04-09 13:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	14	$11.5K	7,862	7,862	+0	open	—	04-17 13:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	6	$11.3K	32,272	12,272	+20,000	open	—	04-22 10:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	103	$11.0K	129,121	129,121	+0	open	—	04-12 13:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	48	$9.5K	20,707	20,707	+0	open	—	04-09 14:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	37	$9.5K	8,819	8,819	+0	open	—	04-24 07:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	18	$5.4K	3,354	3,354	+0	open	—	04-20 11:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	14	$5.0K	13,581	11,307	+2,274	Yes	$-1,380	05-08 18:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	25	$4.6K	6,599	6,599	+0	open	—	04-20 12:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	9	$4.1K	3,958	3,958	+0	open	—	05-08 20:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	18	$4.0K	373,714	15,103	+358,611	Yes	$-2,474	05-09 07:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	4	$3.9K	2,349	2,349	+0	open	—	04-17 12:58
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	25	$3.6K	10,897	10,897	+0	open	—	04-30 11:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$3.2K	3,700	3,700	+0	open	—	06-19 12:15
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	12	$2.9K	10,709	0	+10,709	open	—	05-06 11:13
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	2	$2.8K	0	4,050	-4,050	open	—	06-11 10:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	17	$2.7K	24,000	4,000	+20,000	Yes	+$300	05-09 07:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	11	$2.6K	3,501	3,501	+0	open	—	04-24 12:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	14	$1.9K	3,929	3,929	+0	open	—	05-06 10:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$1.5K	3,580	3,580	+0	open	—	06-12 09:17
israel closes its airspace by june 8	6	$1.4K	752	752	+0	open	—	06-08 16:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$1.3K	804	804	-0	open	—	03-14 12:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,140	1,140	+0	open	—	05-06 23:10
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	9	$1.2K	5,800	5,800	+0	open	—	06-14 21:34
will trump cut off trade with spain	2	$1.0K	538	538	+0	open	—	03-13 21:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$975	750	750	+0	open	—	06-09 20:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	3	$897	482	482	+0	open	—	04-15 15:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$881	812	812	+0	open	—	03-14 11:24
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	4	$774	6,915	471	+6,444	open	—	06-22 11:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 16:27:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	9¢	$112	0x54a01c…
06-23 09:56:11	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	9¢	$90	0x48e0fb…
06-23 09:06:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	9¢	$180	0xde6b96…
06-22 11:33:37	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3,125	12¢	$375	0x6d2048…
06-19 12:15:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	98	41¢	$40	0x69b4c8…
06-19 12:14:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x4bc218…
06-19 12:14:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3,590	42¢	$1,508	0x8adbb0…
06-19 12:14:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x773548…
06-15 21:23:51	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	22¢	$440	0x6c97eb…
06-14 21:34:01	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	5,800	1¢	$58	0x1b87ac…
06-14 21:33:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	471	8¢	$38	0xda9598…
06-14 21:31:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	3,800	1¢	$38	0x085697…
06-14 21:26:43	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 18 2026	No	BUY	160	28¢	$45	0xaafca6…
06-14 21:23:16	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$71	0x0d9096…
06-14 21:18:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	476	30¢	$143	0xee9295…
06-14 21:18:04	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0x567f6a…
06-14 21:18:01	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xd70dd8…
06-14 21:18:01	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x77b41c…
06-14 21:18:00	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	8	30¢	$3	0x7386a2…
06-14 15:23:06	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$140	0xb399be…
06-12 19:41:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	33¢	$332	0x747318…
06-12 13:40:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	494	5¢	$26	0x8ede42…
06-12 13:37:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	349	74¢	$258	0x766c89…
06-12 09:18:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,400	47¢	$658	0x14c443…
06-12 09:17:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3,580	18¢	$644	0x7c446b…
06-12 09:10:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,300	47¢	$611	0x9c3849…
06-11 21:22:24	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0xd28e3a…
06-11 20:55:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	517	6¢	$31	0x8d9d88…
06-11 20:54:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	17¢	$166	0xae8666…
06-11 20:53:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,212	7¢	$85	0x7a5ba1…
06-11 20:26:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0xe0ff48…
06-11 20:25:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x5e5a9b…
06-11 20:25:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	711	14¢	$100	0x707922…
06-11 20:22:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,580	25¢	$395	0xb4fbd6…
06-11 20:21:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xa3e4a9…
06-11 20:17:46	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	116	14¢	$16	0xcd9fc3…
06-11 20:16:48	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	73	14¢	$10	0xb7ae08…
06-11 20:13:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0x14807d…
06-11 19:46:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$248	0x3847af…
06-11 19:45:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x7bb765…
06-11 19:41:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	21¢	$210	0x296cb7…
06-11 19:41:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	17¢	$170	0x3f7090…
06-11 19:40:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xe87d21…
06-11 18:55:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	729	9¢	$65	0xd10c81…
06-11 18:52:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	34¢	$340	0xed6fc7…
06-11 17:45:25	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0x6cdf9d…
06-11 17:45:01	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	128	3¢	$4	0xdd0cd3…
06-11 17:44:43	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	655	3¢	$23	0x1837a9…
06-11 17:44:24	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,120	4¢	$44	0x0f6c41…
06-11 17:43:34	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0xfdd5f0…
06-11 13:40:58	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,790	9¢	$161	0xe02b66…
06-11 13:36:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0x22fb92…
06-11 13:36:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,967	8¢	$149	0x58511a…
06-11 13:34:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	349	66¢	$230	0xe4b775…
06-11 10:39:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	2,715	66¢	$1,780	0xd871d7…
06-10 16:39:21	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	954	1¢	$10	0x4a672a…
06-10 09:28:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	1¢	$1	0xa7574d…
06-10 05:27:09	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1,335	76¢	$1,019	0xd7d9d0…
06-09 20:49:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	750	61¢	$458	0x42949d…
06-09 20:39:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	350	92¢	$321	0x144088…
06-09 20:14:19	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,219	1¢	$42	0xeddd03…
06-09 16:56:19	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	No	BUY	256	3¢	$8	0x0803cd…
06-09 16:55:36	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	No	BUY	136	3¢	$4	0x2e3d12…
06-09 16:40:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	No	BUY	108	3¢	$3	0x0860f7…
06-09 13:02:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	750	69¢	$518	0x0d3c6f…
06-09 12:49:07	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,851	2¢	$30	0x98fa94…
06-09 12:36:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	210	15¢	$32	0x9a90e4…
06-09 12:20:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	251	17¢	$42	0xbc5de4…
06-09 12:20:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0x5bf655…
06-08 20:21:58	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	149	2¢	$2	0xfd5a1a…
06-08 16:21:21	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x0e597e…
06-08 16:19:55	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	726	98¢	$713	0x1df413…
06-08 12:23:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	350	79¢	$276	0xf20b59…
06-08 12:19:19	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x00f218…
06-08 12:19:18	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x4b3ed2…
06-08 12:19:03	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	182	89¢	$162	0xeca06a…
06-08 12:19:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	352	89¢	$314	0xc0d566…
06-08 11:22:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,097	7¢	$287	0x4c103c…
06-02 11:19:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,166	22¢	$476	0xa014d5…
05-20 12:51:21	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	240	59¢	$142	0x8997cc…
05-20 12:41:47	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	6¢	$120	0xed91fd…
05-15 14:01:10	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x47cd01…
05-15 13:57:23	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x4e80f0…
05-15 13:51:15	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	152	2¢	$2	0x15dae5…
05-15 13:31:53	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa95f43…
05-15 13:26:31	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	183	2¢	$3	0xb39cd8…
05-15 13:06:50	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	135	2¢	$2	0x639808…
05-13 13:33:50	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	29	11¢	$3	0x68781a…
05-13 13:32:26	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x37b3da…
05-13 13:16:06	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xe942a0…
05-13 13:13:41	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0xdb3ee7…
05-13 13:00:09	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xcf696f…
05-13 12:41:27	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xcfd782…
05-13 11:19:05	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xc210d1…
05-13 11:13:22	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x939251…
05-13 11:12:18	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x982367…
05-13 11:11:53	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x676ba4…
05-13 11:11:27	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0xd76d15…
05-13 11:03:13	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x44a796…
05-13 11:01:56	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x028f2c…