Frozen-Dialogue — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$628

Unrealized P&L

+$779

Hit rate

84.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

190 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$24.7K

$136.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$717

Open exposure

$7.67K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-13 04:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 83% +$2,650

Other

30% 87% -$6,560

Sports

12% 50% +$1,467

Politics

7% 88% +$1,973

Tech

0% 100% +$42

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+3,033	$2,466	86¢	$2.6K	+$156	10-29 12:22
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	+2,365	$1,500	77¢	$1.8K	+$313	10-28 07:35
Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	+1,061	$870	94¢	$1.0K	+$133	10-28 08:25
ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	+612	$500	98¢	$602	+$102	08-12 00:33
ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	+557	$500	97¢	$539	+$39	08-12 00:33
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+575	$500	79¢	$456	-$44	07-01 23:59
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+750	$300	53¢	$394	+$94	10-26 19:08
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+610	$200	30¢	$180	-$20	10-26 19:09
Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+68	$59	97¢	$65	+$7	10-28 07:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	22	$16.5K	11,094	11,094	+0	Yes	+$1,517	07-07 20:52
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	6	$14.4K	7,737	7,737	+0	No	+$34	02-09 00:07
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	9	$8.9K	16,153	0	+16,153	Yes	-$8,870	01-05 10:45
ethereum above 3000 on january 12	2	$7.7K	3,928	3,928	+0	Yes	+$197	01-12 19:19
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	1	$5.0K	5,220	0	+5,220	No	+$220	09-21 09:56
will crude oil cl hit high 70 by end of march 696 795 574 483 322 319 847	2	$4.6K	2,302	2,302	+0	Yes	+$31	03-03 08:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$4.0K	4,396	0	+4,396	No	+$396	05-07 16:22
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	1	$4.0K	4,097	0	+4,097	Yes	+$97	03-01 16:34
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$3.7K	2,186	2,186	+0	Yes	+$668	02-04 10:53
will uae strike iran by march 31	7	$3.1K	4,244	0	+4,244	No	+$1,119	03-18 09:02
will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	3	$2.9K	1,552	1,552	+0	No	+$125	03-18 09:02
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$2.9K	1,742	1,742	+0	open	—	11-13 04:59
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	2	$2.9K	3,154	0	+3,154	No	+$266	01-03 21:46
infinex fdv above 300m one day after launch 311	3	$2.5K	3,971	0	+3,971	No	+$1,470	01-03 14:28
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$2.5K	3,033	0	+3,033	open	—	10-29 12:22
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$2.3K	3,023	0	+3,023	No	+$693	03-06 10:43
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	1	$2.0K	2,222	0	+2,222	No	+$222	09-07 17:19
will ethereum reach 2800 in october 2026	1	$2.0K	2,223	0	+2,223	No	+$223	10-15 09:00
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	2	$1.9K	1,406	1,406	+0	No	-$142	10-21 11:20
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?	2	$1.6K	1,794	0	+1,794	No	+$229	09-21 09:58
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	4	$1.5K	2,365	0	+2,365	open	—	10-28 07:35
will ethereum reach 2200 in march 2026	2	$1.4K	1,725	863	+863	Yes	-$625	03-09 13:27
will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	1	$1.3K	1,624	0	+1,624	No	+$359	03-08 13:26
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	2	$1.2K	1,298	0	+1,298	No	+$48	02-10 17:22
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$1.2K	1,387	0	+1,387	No	+$187	04-07 10:55
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$1.1K	9,689	9,689	+0	No	-$149	01-18 20:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	2	$1.0K	543	543	+0	No	+$37	09-21 09:57
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	2	$1.0K	575	575	+0	No	+$23	02-06 22:13
infinex fdv above 200m one day after launch 274	2	$1.0K	1,991	1,991	+0	No	+$23	01-05 10:44
infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	1	$1000	1,082	0	+1,082	No	+$82	01-13 15:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 04:59:54	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,742	86¢	$1,493	0x24fbf5…
11-03 09:50:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?	Yes	BUY	301	83¢	$250	0x0f9651…
11-03 09:49:40	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in November?	Yes	BUY	877	57¢	$500	0x0371ab…
10-29 12:22:22	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	533	87¢	$466	0xa89e24…
10-28 08:25:58	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	750	82¢	$615	0x0f6fc5…
10-28 07:35:34	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x68f89f…
10-28 07:35:28	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	521	58¢	$300	0xc312f9…
10-28 07:35:08	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x8de746…
10-28 07:34:58	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x734c48…
10-28 07:34:43	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xad70ce…
10-28 07:34:17	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	58	87¢	$50	0xb050ae…
10-28 07:34:10	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x8bb055…
10-28 07:33:47	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	757	53¢	$400	0x48d8ed…
10-26 19:09:09	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0x96d39c…
10-26 19:08:30	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	467	64¢	$300	0x20895d…
10-26 19:08:20	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	750	40¢	$300	0xdf3754…
10-21 11:20:47	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	SELL	1,406	61¢	$858	0xda6015…
10-15 09:00:44	will ethereum reach 2800 in october 2026	No	BUY	2,223	90¢	$2,000	0xb88a9c…
10-15 08:57:13	will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in october 2026	No	BUY	1,406	71¢	$1,000	0xaa19b3…
10-08 08:46:04	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	407	86¢	$350	0x6d40c8…
10-07 11:52:31	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x4fa309…
10-07 11:51:29	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0x1290ca…
10-07 11:50:35	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,500	80¢	$2,000	0x5ec1dd…
10-04 10:01:23	Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in October?	No	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0x1aa39c…
10-04 10:00:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0x9c8110…
10-04 09:59:44	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xc0c817…
10-04 09:59:37	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	BUY	579	86¢	$500	0xea2f26…
09-21 09:58:35	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?	No	BUY	673	84¢	$565	0xa46078…
09-21 09:57:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	No	SELL	543	99¢	$537	0xcd810c…
09-21 09:56:30	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	5,220	96¢	$5,000	0xd53160…
09-17 07:59:21	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?	No	SELL	357	93¢	$332	0x1c9c56…
09-13 18:47:31	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x351e54…
09-07 17:21:37	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?	No	BUY	357	84¢	$300	0xa92757…
09-07 17:21:07	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?	No	BUY	1,121	89¢	$1,000	0xdc901a…
09-07 17:19:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	No	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0xb943e6…
09-07 17:19:15	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	BUY	2,222	90¢	$2,000	0x6ac05e…
08-12 00:33:46	ostium fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	557	90¢	$500	0x100a04…
08-12 00:33:31	ostium fdv above 75m one day after launch	No	BUY	570	88¢	$500	0x0125eb…
08-12 00:33:01	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	612	82¢	$500	0xd5ce6e…
08-12 00:30:43	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	580	69¢	$400	0x1d0309…
08-12 00:29:01	will ethereum reach 2200 in august 2026	No	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0xe5920e…
08-12 00:28:30	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0x5bbce4…
08-12 00:28:13	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xd3f710…
07-16 11:14:13	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0x021a5f…
07-16 11:12:22	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	380	79¢	$300	0xa45021…
07-13 12:42:23	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0xce5264…
07-07 22:05:37	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x4901e8…
07-07 20:52:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3,876	100¢	$3,868	0x7e6f23…
07-05 21:51:34	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	619	81¢	$500	0x39eba1…
07-05 21:42:41	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x216321…
07-05 21:41:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	781	64¢	$500	0x9ceab1…
07-05 21:40:40	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0x02fd05…
07-04 14:40:10	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	405	74¢	$300	0x80462c…
07-04 13:55:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0xab561e…
07-03 00:54:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	2,625	72¢	$1,890	0x69c5b2…
07-03 00:34:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	99	72¢	$71	0x470dfe…
07-03 00:24:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	139	72¢	$100	0xd0bf28…
07-03 00:23:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x75ef58…
07-03 00:23:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	88	72¢	$63	0xab881e…
07-03 00:23:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	29	70¢	$20	0x5b11a2…
07-03 00:23:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	71	70¢	$50	0x2a6b84…
07-03 00:23:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x0379aa…
07-03 00:23:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x8a3605…
07-03 00:23:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xb28cb7…
07-03 00:23:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	173	70¢	$121	0xf1a29f…
07-03 00:22:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	29	72¢	$21	0x58ecb4…
07-03 00:20:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0x4d4188…
07-03 00:20:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0x4bed0e…
07-03 00:19:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,111	71¢	$785	0x61ef1d…
07-03 00:19:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	68	72¢	$49	0xf4a42f…
07-02 14:52:08	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	560	89¢	$500	0x2c8fe8…
07-01 23:59:46	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0xb2e725…
07-01 23:57:50	will ethereum reach 1900 in july 2026	No	BUY	642	78¢	$500	0x304f45…
06-29 17:36:46	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xffd203…
06-29 17:34:34	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,125	2¢	$50	0xd4b583…
06-22 19:55:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4,413	68¢	$3,000	0xd52a75…
06-22 19:55:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4,472	67¢	$3,000	0x2b5e19…
06-03 15:55:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0xd6943b…
06-03 15:52:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	Yes	BUY	508	59¢	$300	0xf58b66…
06-03 15:51:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	581	86¢	$500	0xd0f28c…
06-03 15:50:37	Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x977a1b…
06-02 10:32:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	238	99¢	$235	0x216e73…
05-07 17:26:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x05ba1e…
05-07 16:22:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x609275…
05-07 16:22:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x3368e4…
05-07 16:21:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	769	65¢	$500	0x90a728…
04-10 12:49:35	spl okh nsr 2026 04 11 nsr	Yes	BUY	685	88¢	$600	0x0894f7…
04-07 10:55:03	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x28cdf8…
04-04 18:32:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0xeda126…
04-04 18:31:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	299	67¢	$200	0x652e83…
04-04 18:29:47	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x136d71…
04-03 13:36:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	324	93¢	$300	0xf021f4…
04-03 13:35:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	No	BUY	646	93¢	$600	0xa4b438…
04-03 13:34:39	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	No	BUY	354	85¢	$300	0xc0decd…
04-02 13:22:57	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x111392…
04-02 12:49:51	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	460	87¢	$400	0x3328da…
04-01 18:42:47	will bitcoin reach 74k march 30 april 5	No	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0x9ef573…
03-18 09:02:57	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	1,815	84¢	$1,524	0xe6c1b4…
03-18 09:02:37	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	SELL	1,552	98¢	$1,524	0xd5f627…
03-12 15:21:29	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	754	83¢	$625	0x54b974…