Ordinary-Group — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$386

Unrealized P&L

-$437

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

316

Trades

429

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$218

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-18 12:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Other

58% 32% +$400

Crypto

33% 20% -$713

Sports

6% 21% -$196

Politics

3% 45% +$123

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-98	-$90	96¢	$-94	-$4	09-06 10:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-66	-$142	90¢	$-59	+$83	09-06 10:23
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+1,200	$470	4¢	$46	-$424	08-07 21:42
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	+34	$10	44¢	$15	+$5	09-06 10:20
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+909	$100	0¢	$3	-$97	08-12 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 70k on february 14	2	$708	857	857	+0	No	+$588	02-14 12:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$542	351	417	-66	open	—	09-06 10:23
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	7	$470	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	08-07 21:42
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	9	$460	1,086	543	+543	No	-$25	04-19 12:35
ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 psg1	3	$402	303	303	+0	Yes	+$202	03-17 21:29
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 40 64	4	$353	200	200	+0	No	+$33	03-22 14:48
bitcoin above 68k on march 3	2	$313	213	213	+0	Yes	+$113	03-03 19:33
Will Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?	3	$306	279	279	+0	Yes	+$246	09-12 15:55
epl che mac 2026 04 12 mac	3	$291	206	203	+3	Yes	+$94	04-12 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 12:15 UTC	4	$285	179	177	+2	Up	+$68	03-29 12:20
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?	3	$270	412	0	+412	Yes	+$142	08-30 16:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 13:30 UTC	2	$263	167	164	+2	Up	+$65	03-29 13:35
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	3	$250	519	0	+519	No	-$250	09-06 13:55
epl mun ast 2026 03 15 mun	2	$248	158	158	+0	Yes	+$68	03-15 18:24
epl liv tot 2026 03 15 draw	3	$241	229	229	+0	Yes	+$181	03-15 18:23
bitcoin above 68k on february 14	2	$230	200	200	+0	Yes	+$150	02-14 08:34
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20?	1	$210	429	0	+429	No	-$210	09-20 12:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 14:10 UTC	2	$203	104	104	+0	Up	+$3	03-29 14:12
epl new mun 2026 03 04 mun	1	$201	515	0	+515	No	-$201	03-03 19:42
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?	3	$200	656	0	+656	No	-$200	09-13 15:22
epl bou mun 2026 03 20 mun	1	$200	435	0	+435	No	-$200	03-19 21:24
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	2	$198	119	119	+0	Yes	+$39	08-30 15:18
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	3	$167	137	137	+0	Yes	+$107	09-06 15:39
will manchester city win the 202526 carabao cup	2	$165	115	115	+0	Yes	+$65	03-22 19:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 12:35 UTC	5	$160	200	0	+200	Up	+$40	03-29 12:38
rusixnat ita eng 2026 03 07 ita	3	$159	124	124	+0	Yes	+$89	03-07 21:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$150	217	0	+217	Yes	+$67	05-11 06:14
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$150	264	0	+264	No	-$150	05-14 17:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$140	599	0	+599	No	-$140	09-14 18:54
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	2	$140	259	0	+259	Yes	+$119	04-25 15:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 12:38:59	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x308b39…
10-13 19:12:34	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x686160…
10-13 18:57:30	Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xd6231a…
10-13 18:57:12	Will Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x324abf…
10-13 18:56:54	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	136	22¢	$30	0x0ecd70…
10-13 18:56:40	Will Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xb71eec…
10-10 15:23:36	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x4c61c0…
10-10 10:38:42	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3,313	0¢	$10	0xa099f0…
10-10 10:36:52	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0x0b561b…
10-10 10:35:33	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x929241…
10-10 10:35:21	Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x01d6e7…
10-10 10:35:09	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0xe3c6cb…
10-10 10:35:00	Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x87c21b…
09-20 12:42:22	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	429	49¢	$210	0xb18eb3…
09-20 12:42:13	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x69fd91…
09-20 12:41:48	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x9fe7b5…
09-16 22:03:27	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0xcdf449…
09-16 19:50:39	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x234e59…
09-14 18:54:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x2ff81c…
09-13 15:22:10	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x9ace46…
09-13 11:27:28	Will Celtic Glasgow win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	126	16¢	$20	0x078c10…
09-13 11:04:52	Will Celtic Glasgow win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	115	35¢	$40	0xd967ef…
09-12 20:14:36	Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xdf0b0b…
09-12 16:09:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x2c8d3f…
09-12 16:01:15	Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xf7e96d…
09-12 16:00:03	Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x522120…
09-12 15:59:58	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x8634e3…
09-12 15:55:54	Will Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	279	99¢	$276	0x3733f6…
09-12 14:20:43	Will Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x45bbbf…
09-12 13:46:12	Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x6f8d1c…
09-12 13:46:00	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x9eba71…
09-12 13:45:21	Will Chelsea FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x683c69…
09-12 13:45:13	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x6bcb72…
09-11 13:58:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	316	19¢	$60	0xf11ec2…
09-10 18:50:09	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xe2e8f0…
09-06 15:39:22	Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	137	100¢	$137	0x61bd52…
09-06 15:38:51	Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x695c2f…
09-06 14:25:03	Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x27d4ba…
09-06 13:55:04	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x95a47c…
09-06 10:25:10	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x8e9a86…
09-06 10:23:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	98	92¢	$90	0xb2e033…
09-06 10:23:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	417	82¢	$342	0x948033…
09-06 10:20:42	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xc4b46e…
09-06 10:19:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 12?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x8b0abc…
09-06 10:17:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf37b81…
09-06 10:17:25	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x931661…
09-06 10:16:57	Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5eec70…
09-06 10:16:52	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xa4a295…
08-31 05:30:22	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x23a6bf…
08-31 05:30:03	Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	118	22¢	$26	0xca44e7…
08-30 16:03:43	Will Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x33e1fe…
08-30 16:02:45	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xdea90f…
08-30 15:33:55	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	178	73¢	$130	0xd5ec2f…
08-30 15:19:22	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x8d24b5…
08-30 15:18:51	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	119	100¢	$118	0x41c09b…
08-30 14:44:33	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	119	67¢	$79	0xddd5eb…
08-12 18:45:18	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0x8982f9…
08-07 21:42:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x441501…
07-31 09:52:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x96dd12…
07-30 13:56:44	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x829aaa…
07-29 16:58:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xeff19d…
07-26 21:29:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x1ba01c…
07-01 16:16:02	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xac1016…
07-01 15:45:11	Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xf11131…
06-29 16:37:08	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xb70918…
06-29 16:36:50	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xc896e0…
06-29 16:36:41	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xa99f7e…
06-29 16:36:26	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x341ba8…
06-29 16:36:20	Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x51a3d4…
06-29 16:36:08	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xbf2660…
06-22 15:20:20	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	364	5¢	$20	0x69b73f…
06-22 15:18:43	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x1075d2…
06-22 15:18:22	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xbdf6a2…
06-22 15:17:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x852089…
06-14 02:49:39	bitcoin above 68k on june 20 2026	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x32723f…
06-14 02:49:28	bitcoin above 66k on june 20 2026	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xd4f37d…
06-14 02:45:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x587823…
06-14 02:45:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x51804b…
06-14 02:45:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x920405…
06-14 02:42:36	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	69	58¢	$40	0xdf5488…
06-14 02:41:54	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	309	10¢	$30	0x3802fa…
06-14 02:41:25	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	267	7¢	$20	0xd82d22…
06-14 02:40:42	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	169	12¢	$20	0x5e6357…
06-01 10:48:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xe4a21f…
06-01 10:48:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x115e3f…
06-01 10:47:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x83ae71…
06-01 10:47:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x508905…
06-01 10:47:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x6934a7…
05-17 18:18:27	Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0x97bca0…
05-17 13:14:41	Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	135	15¢	$20	0x03b626…
05-17 13:12:02	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	SELL	83	84¢	$70	0xa22a56…
05-16 15:28:54	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x0ad9ad…
05-16 15:28:40	Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x069355…
05-16 15:28:06	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xc1fc03…
05-16 11:51:48	Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x4b0adf…
05-16 11:51:27	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x96b539…
05-16 11:51:19	Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x74f127…
05-16 11:50:58	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xbf599f…
05-16 11:50:54	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x377b40…
05-16 11:50:44	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x293784…