Afraid-Transparency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$105

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

Trades

746

lifetime

Volume

$56.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$596

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 06-14 23:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

41% — —

Other

34% 100% +$8

Politics

21% 75% $-113

Sports

4% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No		-600	$-595	99¢	$-596	$-1	06-14 23:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	5	$4.6K	2,465	2,465	+0	open	—	04-08 00:02
btc updown 5m 1773330300	7	$3.0K	3,219	574	+2,644	open	—	03-12 15:49
btc updown 5m 1773327900	9	$2.5K	3,161	2,240	+921	open	—	03-12 15:09
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	22	$1.9K	1,468	1,468	+0	open	—	04-10 14:19
btc updown 5m 1773327000	5	$1.7K	2,190	1,164	+1,026	open	—	03-12 14:54
ufc ale14 die4 2026 01 31	12	$1.7K	968	968	+0	open	—	02-01 04:59
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	20	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-17 00:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	13	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$24	05-09 13:50
btc updown 5m 1773328200	6	$1.2K	1,073	1,059	+14	open	—	03-12 15:14
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	3	$1.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	05-23 23:06
btc updown 5m 1773330600	7	$1.1K	991	876	+115	open	—	03-12 15:54
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	21	$1.1K	869	869	+0	open	—	04-13 15:42
btc updown 5m 1773339000	10	$1.0K	1,151	403	+748	open	—	03-12 18:14
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	6	$870	576	476	+100	open	—	05-21 20:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$859	641	440	+200	open	—	04-24 01:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	5	$844	500	500	+0	No	+$8	05-06 15:01
btc updown 5m 1773330900	9	$830	823	814	+9	open	—	03-12 15:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$811	663	663	+0	open	—	04-13 15:39
btc updown 5m 1773328800	6	$786	1,287	1,167	+121	open	—	03-12 15:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$772	516	516	+0	open	—	04-24 18:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$750	765	0	+765	open	—	04-10 14:14
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	10	$745	554	410	+143	open	—	05-21 19:10
btc updown 5m 1773327600	5	$729	7,711	267	+7,444	open	—	03-12 15:04
btc updown 5m 1773338700	8	$725	1,367	937	+431	open	—	03-12 18:09
btc updown 5m 1773329400	5	$710	523	515	+8	open	—	03-12 15:34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	20	$695	442	442	+0	open	—	04-24 00:12
btc updown 5m 1773330000	5	$691	974	565	+409	open	—	03-12 15:43
btc updown 5m 1773338100	6	$636	1,065	639	+426	open	—	03-12 17:59
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	24	$614	655	218	+438	open	—	05-30 05:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$595	0	600	-600	open	—	06-14 23:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 23:14:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	600	99¢	$595	0x85e479…
06-14 23:13:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	237	84¢	$200	0xc2b011…
06-14 23:08:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	202	15¢	$30	0xaac892…
06-14 23:08:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	6¢	$24	0xcbc290…
06-14 23:08:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x97e7de…
06-14 21:28:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x6abba1…
06-14 21:27:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xecba10…
06-14 21:27:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x2fe22b…
06-14 21:27:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	195	23¢	$45	0x20083f…
06-14 21:27:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xeec842…
06-14 21:26:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xb6b97a…
06-14 21:26:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	159	46¢	$73	0xe10a77…
06-14 21:26:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x7536b5…
05-30 05:25:06	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	396	88¢	$349	0xf34563…
05-30 05:24:59	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0x3e9967…
05-30 05:24:48	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	71	13¢	$9	0x6e3291…
05-27 17:12:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	300	91¢	$272	0xd29a07…
05-23 23:06:03	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	SELL	1,100	61¢	$671	0x4a0291…
05-23 22:58:26	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	1,000	44¢	$440	0x0fe40e…
05-23 22:56:55	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x7ff8d9…
05-23 21:43:27	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xfb41d7…
05-23 21:41:44	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xb5c28d…
05-23 21:41:35	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x8fe545…
05-21 20:31:17	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	77	90¢	$69	0x467170…
05-21 19:51:55	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x1e2f77…
05-21 19:41:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xbfd99d…
05-21 19:11:15	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x0a9841…
05-21 19:10:53	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x1d6a8a…
05-21 19:10:33	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	33	80¢	$26	0xca96a8…
05-21 19:10:30	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	66	80¢	$53	0xeb5f5a…
05-21 19:10:25	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	31	80¢	$25	0x4e49d6…
05-21 19:10:05	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	64	42¢	$27	0x509351…
05-21 19:09:46	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x0807a2…
05-19 19:45:47	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x8bc133…
05-19 19:04:33	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xc07294…
05-19 19:04:31	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x5d8f7c…
05-19 19:04:19	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xed798e…
05-19 19:03:58	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xe582f8…
05-19 19:03:52	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xde9368…
05-19 19:03:47	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xf0c1d1…
05-19 19:03:16	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x29e75f…
05-19 19:02:27	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x006c68…
05-14 16:29:54	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0x26eb0c…
05-12 18:43:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0xb1c1f3…
05-12 18:43:22	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	37	23¢	$9	0xeb964c…
05-12 18:36:19	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0x25888a…
05-12 18:36:15	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0xbdb322…
05-12 18:34:37	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x23bbb2…
05-12 18:34:23	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0x2c29e8…
05-12 18:33:41	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	79	72¢	$57	0x8d06fa…
05-12 18:33:29	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	45¢	$13	0x63edbf…
05-12 18:33:17	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	46¢	$6	0x5f45a2…
05-09 13:50:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x0524a4…
05-09 13:50:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x31c6ba…
05-08 19:03:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	55¢	$64	0x8a8a46…
05-08 19:03:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	55¢	$101	0x6f7ae9…
05-08 18:28:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	58¢	$99	0xf1b8f8…
05-08 18:26:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	41¢	$30	0x68912c…
05-08 18:25:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	38	44¢	$17	0x6c9c83…
05-08 18:25:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0xb5ddb6…
05-08 18:25:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	62	44¢	$27	0xcb5961…
05-08 18:21:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x3b2aab…
05-08 18:21:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0xf6a941…
05-08 18:19:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x9a9c88…
05-08 18:19:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	57	28¢	$16	0x6a6a0f…
05-08 18:19:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0x9c20e1…
05-08 18:17:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0x206fde…
05-08 18:17:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	50¢	$150	0x35e164…
05-08 18:15:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x9dedf7…
05-08 18:14:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	400	53¢	$212	0x2e6fe2…
05-08 18:12:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	57	25¢	$14	0x98c254…
05-08 18:12:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x2c17cc…
05-08 18:12:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	298	26¢	$77	0x60b0ef…
05-08 18:12:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xdd3eec…
05-08 18:11:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0x5c481e…
05-07 20:26:42	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	53¢	$14	0x08b279…
05-07 16:41:49	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	67	77¢	$52	0x3dd0ca…
05-07 15:56:58	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x578a3a…
05-07 15:34:37	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	140	55¢	$77	0x25404b…
05-07 15:33:48	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0xfb1e3b…
05-07 15:23:57	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	299	73¢	$218	0x3d26fa…
05-07 15:20:13	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	51	62¢	$32	0x05da00…
05-07 15:04:59	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0xbef491…
05-07 14:39:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x04ad6a…
05-07 14:39:21	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	40	53¢	$21	0xfaa6e1…
05-07 14:32:17	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x08d1ee…
05-06 18:22:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xf627e4…
05-06 15:01:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	300	95¢	$286	0x47fd50…
05-06 14:52:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xb3d471…
05-06 14:49:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	52	72¢	$37	0x3c093f…
05-06 14:48:56	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xc0bc71…
05-06 14:47:56	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xa1144e…
05-06 14:47:53	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x3c018e…
05-06 14:47:28	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	43	65¢	$28	0xdac09a…
05-05 17:41:14	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x49658c…
05-05 15:51:32	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xd0d1fa…
05-05 15:50:32	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x9dd53a…
05-04 21:00:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x039d3f…
05-04 19:42:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x660062…
05-04 19:41:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x76071a…