Realistic-Payoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.50K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

21.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$185

Open exposure

$1.30K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 06-06 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$102

Politics

37% 0% $-515

Sports

14% 0% $-1,089

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No		+1,011	$1,000	99¢	$1.0K	+$1	06-05 11:59
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No		+310	$300	97¢	$302	+$2	06-05 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will axiom be accused of insider trading	5	$2.1K	2,490	0	+2,490	open	—	02-26 09:32
will company b be accused of insider trading	5	$1.1K	986	793	+193	open	—	02-25 22:27
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$1000	1,011	0	+1,011	open	—	06-05 11:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$988	1,432	0	+1,432	open	—	04-09 15:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$938	1,087	696	+391	open	—	04-13 18:31
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$691	835	0	+835	Sean Strickland	$-691	05-08 11:44
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$600	769	0	+769	open	—	02-07 18:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$515	544	0	+544	Yes	$-515	05-04 07:42
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	4	$427	456	217	+238	open	—	05-23 22:54
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$336	354	0	+354	Yes	+$18	04-15 09:19
Fight to Go the Distance?	1	$300	411	0	+411	Yes	$-300	05-06 23:51
will legendary be said at the super bowl	1	$300	341	0	+341	open	—	02-07 18:28
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	1	$300	310	0	+310	open	—	06-05 12:01
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	1	$200	256	0	+256	open	—	02-25 20:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$200	340	0	+340	open	—	05-28 09:18
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$156	230	0	+230	open	—	01-29 22:07
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$111	150	0	+150	open	—	04-25 17:35
will another company be accused of insider trading	6	$104	400	0	+400	open	—	02-25 21:23
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$100	156	0	+156	open	—	06-06 22:00
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	1	$100	184	0	+184	Yes	+$84	04-15 09:16
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$100	235	0	+235	open	—	05-21 10:41
will ice or border patrol be said at the super bowl	1	$100	156	0	+156	open	—	02-07 18:27
Will the fight be won by submission?	1	$98	185	0	+185	No	$-98	05-06 23:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$85	315	0	+315	open	—	03-19 10:14
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$80	116	0	+116	open	—	02-15 19:47
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$59	280	0	+280	open	—	04-13 18:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$56	0	185	-185	open	—	05-29 04:04
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$50	80	0	+80	open	—	04-17 15:44
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	1	$45	52	0	+52	open	—	04-08 19:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$25	641	0	+641	open	—	03-16 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 22:00:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xa2986c…
06-05 12:01:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0xd3670e…
06-05 11:59:36	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,011	99¢	$1,000	0xedb138…
05-29 04:04:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	30¢	$56	0xfc14f8…
05-28 09:18:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	340	59¢	$200	0x47a0ce…
05-23 22:54:44	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x01f9e6…
05-23 22:54:30	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	SELL	217	58¢	$127	0x72a424…
05-23 22:39:43	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x8ea8be…
05-23 16:39:11	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x37203d…
05-21 10:41:25	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	235	43¢	$100	0xaa056d…
05-08 11:44:20	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	233	82¢	$191	0x17e535…
05-07 19:33:56	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0x7eb82b…
05-06 23:52:22	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	185	53¢	$98	0x295fe1…
05-06 23:51:47	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0xdc9ab1…
05-04 07:42:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	413	94¢	$390	0x7b148a…
04-25 17:35:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	75	74¢	$56	0x2fee79…
04-25 17:35:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	75	74¢	$55	0x48ec51…
04-24 10:04:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	95¢	$125	0x783b1b…
04-17 15:44:10	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0x5b4eb7…
04-15 09:19:10	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	354	95¢	$336	0xae18e2…
04-15 09:16:20	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x4fdb1e…
04-13 18:35:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	230	21¢	$48	0x564574…
04-13 18:32:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x47cd6e…
04-13 18:31:03	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x059ad6…
04-13 18:30:47	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0x64d54f…
04-13 18:30:31	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x83f652…
04-13 18:30:21	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0x5e3e5e…
04-13 18:26:53	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	543	63¢	$342	0x626a18…
04-09 15:19:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0xd386ee…
04-09 15:03:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	432	69¢	$298	0x336fc1…
04-08 19:25:27	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0xf2e3fc…
04-08 11:52:27	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	1,087	46¢	$500	0x6a3377…
03-19 10:14:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	315	27¢	$85	0x970673…
03-16 18:10:45	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	641	4¢	$25	0x3d145e…
03-15 12:27:39	will solana reach 110 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	117	17¢	$20	0xdba6b8…
02-26 09:32:20	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	255	63¢	$160	0x993b60…
02-25 22:28:18	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x6bed54…
02-25 22:27:42	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	SELL	623	67¢	$418	0xefafdc…
02-25 22:26:44	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	623	68¢	$424	0xf4345c…
02-25 22:25:46	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	104	86¢	$90	0xb8ce1b…
02-25 22:02:50	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	1,733	85¢	$1,468	0xbfccb7…
02-25 21:23:02	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	114	26¢	$30	0xc83d61…
02-25 21:23:02	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x8d9c8a…
02-25 21:22:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x6c4cc7…
02-25 21:22:08	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	83	26¢	$22	0x37ed8a…
02-25 21:21:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xb64cbb…
02-25 21:21:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	173	26¢	$45	0x1b79df…
02-25 20:32:12	US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	No	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0x16c14a…
02-25 17:11:44	will company b be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x9827e9…
02-25 17:11:26	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	SELL	169	49¢	$83	0xa7b751…
02-25 11:09:28	will binance be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0x2b3ae7…
02-25 11:08:26	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	97	82¢	$80	0xd23dbf…
02-25 11:08:00	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x5efa04…
02-25 11:05:14	will binance be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0xece7e5…
02-15 19:49:03	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x3110ac…
02-15 19:47:59	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	116	69¢	$80	0x85ddd2…
02-11 14:33:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x691593…
02-07 18:36:43	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	769	78¢	$600	0x814c7b…
02-07 18:28:19	will legendary be said at the super bowl	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x3af726…
02-07 18:27:43	will ice or border patrol be said at the super bowl	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xe5e477…
01-29 22:07:26	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	68¢	$156	0x789722…