Realistic-Payoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.50K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

21.4%

Resolved

Trades

108

lifetime

Volume

$37.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$343

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 07-11 23:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$102

Pop-Culture

24% — —

Politics

20% 0% $-515

Sports

8% 0% $-1,089

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$10.7K	5,434	5,434	+0	open	—	07-01 09:58
will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	12	$8.8K	5,938	3,300	+2,638	open	—	07-04 01:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.2K	2,681	0	+2,681	open	—	06-14 22:41
will axiom be accused of insider trading	5	$2.1K	2,490	0	+2,490	open	—	02-26 09:32
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	4	$1.5K	1,708	156	+1,552	open	—	07-07 13:07
will company b be accused of insider trading	5	$1.1K	986	793	+193	open	—	02-25 22:27
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$1000	1,011	0	+1,011	open	—	06-05 11:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$988	1,432	0	+1,432	open	—	04-09 15:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$938	1,087	696	+391	open	—	04-13 18:31
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$691	835	0	+835	Sean Strickland	$-691	05-08 11:44
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$600	769	0	+769	open	—	02-07 18:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$515	544	0	+544	Yes	$-515	05-04 07:42
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$500	2,941	0	+2,941	open	—	06-29 21:21
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	2	$480	500	0	+500	open	—	06-18 10:48
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	4	$427	456	217	+238	open	—	05-23 22:54
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	16	$344	400	0	+400	open	—	06-30 07:27
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$336	354	0	+354	Yes	+$18	04-15 09:19
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$300	750	0	+750	open	—	06-12 14:37
Fight to Go the Distance?	1	$300	411	0	+411	Yes	$-300	05-06 23:51
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	1	$300	310	0	+310	open	—	06-05 12:01
will legendary be said at the super bowl	1	$300	341	0	+341	open	—	02-07 18:28
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$260	300	0	+300	open	—	07-11 23:18
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	1	$200	256	0	+256	open	—	02-25 20:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	1	$200	251	0	+251	open	—	06-20 10:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$200	340	0	+340	open	—	05-28 09:18
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$156	230	0	+230	open	—	01-29 22:07
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	1	$120	857	0	+857	open	—	06-29 21:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$111	150	0	+150	open	—	04-25 17:35
will another company be accused of insider trading	6	$104	400	0	+400	open	—	02-25 21:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	1	$100	304	0	+304	open	—	06-20 10:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 23:18:44	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	300	87¢	$260	0x5e19a2…
07-07 13:07:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	361	83¢	$300	0xd0b5b2…
07-07 09:18:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,190	84¢	$1,000	0x316fc5…
07-04 01:21:23	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	SELL	3,300	100¢	$3,297	0xa02547…
07-03 01:15:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	156	89¢	$139	0x79ab49…
07-02 23:55:26	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	1,239	82¢	$1,012	0x53a3a9…
07-02 23:45:28	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	95	82¢	$77	0x5e2a62…
07-02 22:36:46	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	619	97¢	$600	0x5882e8…
07-02 22:35:46	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	493	82¢	$403	0x81e9a1…
07-02 22:30:41	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xc0712f…
07-02 22:29:56	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x3d7ec7…
07-02 22:29:05	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0xbf54be…
07-02 21:13:20	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xa5c5ef…
07-02 21:10:07	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	1,176	98¢	$1,154	0xbbd2f3…
07-01 09:58:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,434	100¢	$5,429	0x2fb84f…
06-30 07:27:23	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	293	86¢	$252	0xe630e9…
06-30 07:03:43	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x200d68…
06-30 06:19:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x92aabd…
06-30 04:34:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xd790c4…
06-30 04:34:05	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x343f58…
06-30 04:33:58	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x74ec9f…
06-30 04:33:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x393ed5…
06-30 04:33:50	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x846188…
06-30 04:33:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4cd556…
06-30 04:33:43	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x304025…
06-30 04:33:34	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x419881…
06-30 04:33:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xd0dfae…
06-30 03:53:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf1bf32…
06-30 03:28:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xe19ae6…
06-30 03:19:59	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x7a30d7…
06-30 01:20:34	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	76	86¢	$65	0x67bbdc…
06-29 21:28:23	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	857	14¢	$120	0x388e96…
06-29 21:21:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,941	17¢	$500	0xa21ec8…
06-29 09:27:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,434	98¢	$5,300	0xcc4b6d…
06-23 14:57:10	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0x1d1592…
06-20 11:08:22	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x62171b…
06-20 10:40:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	235	17¢	$40	0xc769f6…
06-20 10:40:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	304	33¢	$100	0x2a65be…
06-20 10:40:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	251	80¢	$200	0x10c4d4…
06-18 20:39:02	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0x10e7ab…
06-18 10:48:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	207	96¢	$198	0x0c3dd4…
06-18 10:16:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	293	96¢	$282	0x7f079a…
06-14 22:41:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,135	89¢	$1,900	0x1c5afa…
06-14 20:43:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	546	54¢	$295	0x46270f…
06-12 14:37:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	750	40¢	$300	0x86f96f…
06-06 22:00:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xa2986c…
06-05 12:01:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0xd3670e…
06-05 11:59:36	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,011	99¢	$1,000	0xedb138…
05-29 04:04:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	30¢	$56	0xfc14f8…
05-28 09:18:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	340	59¢	$200	0x47a0ce…
05-23 22:54:44	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x01f9e6…
05-23 22:54:30	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	SELL	217	58¢	$127	0x72a424…
05-23 22:39:43	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x8ea8be…
05-23 16:39:11	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x37203d…
05-21 10:41:25	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	235	43¢	$100	0xaa056d…
05-08 11:44:20	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	233	82¢	$191	0x17e535…
05-07 19:33:56	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0x7eb82b…
05-06 23:52:22	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	185	53¢	$98	0x295fe1…
05-06 23:51:47	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0xdc9ab1…
05-04 07:42:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	413	94¢	$390	0x7b148a…
04-25 17:35:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	75	74¢	$56	0x2fee79…
04-25 17:35:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	75	74¢	$55	0x48ec51…
04-24 10:04:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	95¢	$125	0x783b1b…
04-17 15:44:10	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0x5b4eb7…
04-15 09:19:10	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	354	95¢	$336	0xae18e2…
04-15 09:16:20	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x4fdb1e…
04-13 18:35:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	230	21¢	$48	0x564574…
04-13 18:32:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x47cd6e…
04-13 18:31:03	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x059ad6…
04-13 18:30:47	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0x64d54f…
04-13 18:30:31	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x83f652…
04-13 18:30:21	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0x5e3e5e…
04-13 18:26:53	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	543	63¢	$342	0x626a18…
04-09 15:19:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0xd386ee…
04-09 15:03:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	432	69¢	$298	0x336fc1…
04-08 19:25:27	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0xf2e3fc…
04-08 11:52:27	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	1,087	46¢	$500	0x6a3377…
03-19 10:14:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	315	27¢	$85	0x970673…
03-16 18:10:45	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	641	4¢	$25	0x3d145e…
03-15 12:27:39	will solana reach 110 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	117	17¢	$20	0xdba6b8…
02-26 09:32:20	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	255	63¢	$160	0x993b60…
02-25 22:28:18	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x6bed54…
02-25 22:27:42	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	SELL	623	67¢	$418	0xefafdc…
02-25 22:26:44	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	623	68¢	$424	0xf4345c…
02-25 22:25:46	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	104	86¢	$90	0xb8ce1b…
02-25 22:02:50	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	1,733	85¢	$1,468	0xbfccb7…
02-25 21:23:02	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	114	26¢	$30	0xc83d61…
02-25 21:23:02	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x8d9c8a…
02-25 21:22:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x6c4cc7…
02-25 21:22:08	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	83	26¢	$22	0x37ed8a…
02-25 21:21:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xb64cbb…
02-25 21:21:24	will another company be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	173	26¢	$45	0x1b79df…
02-25 20:32:12	US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	No	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0x16c14a…
02-25 17:11:44	will company b be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x9827e9…
02-25 17:11:26	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	SELL	169	49¢	$83	0xa7b751…
02-25 11:09:28	will binance be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0x2b3ae7…
02-25 11:08:26	will axiom be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	97	82¢	$80	0xd23dbf…
02-25 11:08:00	will company b be accused of insider trading	No	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x5efa04…
02-25 11:05:14	will binance be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0xece7e5…
02-15 19:49:03	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x3110ac…