Giant-Innocence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.08K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

74.1%

Resolved

1,159

Trades

11,071

lifetime

Volume

$1.40M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$28

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 10:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 176 days

Categories

Other

44% 68% -$1,405

Sports

33% 50% -$244

Politics

18% 63% -$179

Crypto

5% 66% +$180

Pop-Culture

1% 10% -$406

Tech

0% 0% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+16	$16	100¢	$16	+$0	10-25 12:42
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-7	-$6	96¢	$-6	$0	06-04 06:39
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-26 10:04
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$3	2¢	$0	-$3	10-04 01:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1,242	$205.7K	159,868	159,868	-0	No	+$104	07-14 17:17
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	217	$115.4K	87,271	87,271	+0	No	-$94	07-19 18:01
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	73	$45.2K	24,264	21,304	+2,960	No	+$44	02-17 00:20
Will the US strike Iran next?	59	$43.3K	26,891	16,577	+10,314	No	+$54	02-19 21:11
si hit 150 high jan 2026	128	$40.8K	20,691	20,625	+66	No	+$50	01-30 09:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	217	$40.5K	21,061	20,049	+1,012	Yes	+$33	04-26 19:00
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	153	$40.1K	22,209	23,781	-1,572	No	+$17	04-29 08:10
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	108	$27.6K	14,510	13,734	+776	No	+$58	02-23 07:48
Will the US strike Somalia next?	63	$27.6K	10,331	17,514	-7,183	Yes	-$41	01-27 21:16
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	30	$25.1K	17,833	17,833	+0	Yes	-$21	07-15 21:29
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	274	$24.8K	13,508	12,372	+1,135	Yes	+$45	02-19 08:37
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	86	$22.7K	9,613	13,195	-3,582	No	+$1	02-10 06:36
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	53	$21.5K	11,480	10,307	+1,173	No	+$27	02-01 03:14
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	178	$21.3K	10,700	10,700	+0	No	+$11	05-10 19:22
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	21	$20.3K	10,200	10,200	+0	No	+$10	04-02 02:16
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$15.6K	7,828	7,828	+0	No	+$0	01-02 17:54
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	61	$15.2K	7,633	7,732	-99	No	+$9	03-08 08:10
will the us not strike another country before 2027 952	138	$14.7K	8,473	6,347	+2,126	No	+$31	01-23 19:50
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	68	$12.8K	5,903	6,942	-1,039	No	+$1	04-16 05:57
Will the US strike Iran next?	59	$12.3K	4,900	7,449	-2,550	No	+$3	02-04 18:45
will hyperliquid hit 38 in january	24	$12.1K	3,964	8,213	-4,249	No	+$54	02-01 03:40
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	19	$12.0K	7,076	7,076	+0	No	-$1	07-14 21:33
will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	41	$10.3K	3,711	6,617	-2,906	No	-$15	03-14 15:05
will silver si hit high 130 by end of february 915 491 526 914 543 364	6	$9.6K	4,877	4,875	+2	No	+$20	02-25 07:29
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	39	$9.4K	3,975	5,461	-1,486	No	+$6	03-10 11:22
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	20	$8.5K	4,520	4,520	+0	No	+$0	06-20 20:29
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	88	$8.5K	4,147	4,390	-243	No	+$4	04-16 18:33
highest temperature in seoul on march 11 2026 6c	14	$8.4K	5,211	3,200	+2,011	Yes	+$16	03-11 14:54
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	50	$8.4K	4,606	4,214	+392	No	+$7	03-04 16:28
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$8.0K	8,800	8,800	+0	Yes	-$88	05-13 13:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 10:04:17	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4d7ab8…
10-25 12:42:03	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd83916…
10-24 11:33:11	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf841fb…
10-23 09:50:08	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	83	70¢	$58	0x06a129…
10-22 05:27:17	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x044634…
10-21 15:31:42	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x0d86e2…
10-20 08:35:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x2a60d8…
10-19 09:13:54	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xce9ca0…
10-18 12:58:14	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xa3105a…
10-17 09:22:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x62e06f…
10-16 09:06:34	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x1a0c61…
10-15 08:30:56	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x6b8f56…
10-13 09:21:11	Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc62fe2…
10-13 09:21:04	Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xa925c9…
10-13 09:20:47	Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xfa55b7…
10-13 09:20:31	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x07f083…
10-12 01:05:30	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xc4a8d9…
10-11 14:45:43	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x8443d2…
10-11 14:08:33	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x2418a5…
10-09 17:13:22	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xaefb7f…
10-09 17:13:10	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x17f0d7…
10-09 17:12:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc90b8b…
10-07 14:26:07	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0xaa9a47…
10-06 10:19:57	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x041406…
10-05 13:21:52	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x1c86e8…
10-05 13:21:47	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x735486…
10-05 13:21:41	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x53fe25…
10-05 13:21:16	Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	75	91¢	$68	0x853283…
10-05 13:21:08	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$2	0xbb5719…
10-04 01:53:25	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xff69af…
10-04 00:18:46	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	139	10¢	$14	0x478816…
10-03 22:09:34	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x5c5b1b…
10-03 22:09:32	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xe98b1a…
10-03 22:09:08	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0x4ce5cd…
10-03 22:09:08	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x042bee…
10-03 19:31:00	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$3	0x5f3460…
10-03 12:32:03	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	33	50¢	$16	0x8a09fb…
10-03 12:31:23	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	50¢	$8	0x4dabdf…
10-03 10:07:21	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xcd55b9…
10-03 10:07:09	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0xccfc13…
10-03 09:11:42	Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xdf0d03…
10-03 04:20:30	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x8acae0…
10-03 01:18:00	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xd37df3…
10-02 10:10:39	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x807060…
10-02 08:56:15	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	6¢	$24	0x3ce68a…
10-02 03:07:41	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xacca34…
10-01 18:20:30	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x9b7d65…
10-01 16:36:38	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x9a59e7…
10-01 14:52:09	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x18b90e…
10-01 14:27:48	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xdaba98…
10-01 13:32:57	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xfba924…
10-01 12:54:20	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xda6ad5…
10-01 05:41:05	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x960759…
09-30 19:30:47	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x5547de…
09-30 00:50:15	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x119d34…
09-29 21:51:24	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xcedc17…
09-29 21:51:24	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xcda855…
09-29 21:51:24	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x70a3ba…
09-29 17:55:39	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x74852e…
09-29 07:30:05	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x4c0540…
09-29 05:20:50	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x2009d6…
09-29 04:42:02	Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x702010…
09-29 04:40:27	Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xcc9d1a…
09-28 15:13:09	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	3¢	$3	0x8834ea…
09-28 11:13:47	Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	153	7¢	$11	0x7174a2…
09-28 06:13:57	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x4d73db…
09-28 06:06:33	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x071204…
09-28 06:06:30	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xf9caa3…
09-28 06:06:30	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x706c65…
09-28 06:06:26	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x0172c5…
09-28 06:06:24	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x999441…
09-28 06:06:24	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x794dd8…
09-27 13:32:56	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xee233d…
09-27 11:05:24	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd55fab…
09-27 10:07:05	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x686553…
09-27 05:24:06	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xa52266…
09-26 19:57:20	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x85d98b…
09-26 12:18:42	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x2f7fc2…
09-26 10:04:44	Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x69a097…
09-26 10:04:15	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x362cb7…
09-26 10:04:02	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x94c994…
09-26 10:03:54	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x8f54bb…
09-26 10:03:41	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xa3e880…
09-25 08:16:11	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x0a6101…
09-25 07:17:21	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x79abc5…
09-25 05:57:05	Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x4813dc…
09-25 04:21:12	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xeb477b…
09-25 04:15:33	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xb58358…
09-24 18:05:50	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x3ebf06…
09-24 15:42:08	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0xdc1233…
09-24 08:24:14	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2d29e5…
09-24 04:32:48	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	96¢	$53	0x96851a…
09-23 22:19:52	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xbd06f5…
09-23 22:19:52	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x409608…
09-23 20:46:41	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	96¢	$19	0xeca1b2…
09-23 01:46:31	Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x504c13…
09-22 15:58:40	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x0e5f4a…
09-22 15:28:18	Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x4fa6fa…
09-22 12:36:46	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x0ff868…
09-22 01:12:39	Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	75	10¢	$8	0xd8d316…