Realized P&L
+$24.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.85K
Hit rate
63.4%
Resolved
89
Trades
2,506
lifetime
Volume
$5.09M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.03K
Open exposure
$159.3K
12 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 08-02 23:19
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 53 days
Categories
Politics
71%
74%
+$21,585
Other
27%
81%
+$2,204
Crypto
2%
100%
+$845
Sports
0%
50%
+$135
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-02).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +69,861 | $57,695 | 96¢ | $66.7K | +$9,022 | 06-02 13:21 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +39,004 | $34,052 | 98¢ | $38.4K | +$4,347 | 06-08 12:19 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +35,553 | $25,542 | 82¢ | $29.0K | +$3,434 | 06-09 16:39 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +7,761 | $6,364 | 92¢ | $7.2K | +$815 | 07-01 10:24 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +35,553 | $7,088 | 18¢ | $6.6K | -$511 | 05-08 01:14 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +5,000 | $4,400 | 96¢ | $4.8K | +$425 | 05-07 13:12 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | +69,861 | $10,596 | 4¢ | $3.1K | -$7,452 | 05-07 19:21 | |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | No | +1,111 | $822 | 88¢ | $983 | +$161 | 06-13 10:15 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +12,972 | $2,854 | 8¢ | $973 | -$1,881 | 05-08 14:43 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +910 | $646 | 97¢ | $880 | +$234 | 05-06 14:50 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | +39,004 | $3,150 | 2¢ | $605 | -$2,545 | 05-28 01:01 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Yes | +2,348 | $286 | 4¢ | $82 | -$204 | 05-07 22:43 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 86 | $817.0K | 871,852 | 53,786 | +818,066 | Yes | -$22,112 | 05-09 18:52 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 53 | $769.4K | 850,733 | 258,050 | +592,684 | No | -$14 | 04-30 22:57 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026 | 6 | $274.2K | 275,051 | 0 | +275,051 | Yes | +$809 | 04-30 23:02 |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? | 3 | $269.7K | 270,000 | 0 | +270,000 | Yes | +$270 | 05-04 16:45 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 33 | $267.7K | 267,976 | 0 | +267,976 | Yes | +$268 | 04-20 19:27 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 14 | $201.1K | 201,923 | 0 | +201,923 | Yes | +$858 | 04-07 18:44 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 432 | $188.2K | 158,704 | 80,696 | +78,008 | open | — | 06-08 12:19 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 61 | $176.2K | 182,634 | 0 | +182,634 | Yes | +$834 | 04-09 10:08 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 4 | $118.4K | 118,509 | 0 | +118,509 | Yes | +$119 | 04-24 04:49 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 11 | $104.2K | 105,000 | 0 | +105,000 | No | +$845 | 06-03 00:24 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 4 | $103.7K | 108,233 | 6,294 | +101,938 | Yes | +$13 | 06-17 21:10 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | 3 | $92.3K | 97,777 | 0 | +97,777 | No | -$47 | 06-17 18:03 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 176 | $89.3K | 121,121 | 34,101 | +87,020 | Yes | +$821 | 06-17 18:50 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 300 | $86.8K | 218,139 | 48,075 | +170,065 | No | +$3,942 | 05-08 19:46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 37 | $83.2K | 152,708 | 12,987 | +139,721 | open | — | 06-02 13:21 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 30 | $82.3K | 16,328 | 66,161 | -49,833 | Yes | +$28 | 02-03 20:55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 8 | $78.0K | 39,602 | 39,602 | +0 | No | +$383 | 05-21 21:31 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 4 | $74.8K | 67,512 | 7,423 | +60,090 | No | +$75 | 01-20 16:55 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 200 | $67.3K | 145,753 | 43,232 | +102,521 | No | +$5,218 | 05-23 19:03 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 10 | $67.2K | 35,346 | 35,346 | +0 | No | +$8 | 05-23 12:48 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 6 | $65.1K | 65,274 | 0 | +65,274 | No | +$206 | 01-03 00:53 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 20 | $61.4K | 61,612 | 0 | +61,612 | Yes | +$230 | 02-03 21:24 |
| will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 1 | $61.0K | 61,082 | 0 | +61,082 | No | +$61 | 03-18 18:53 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 8 | $60.9K | 60,996 | 0 | +60,996 | Yes | +$61 | 03-12 03:27 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 5 | $60.9K | 60,929 | 0 | +60,929 | No | +$61 | 03-12 00:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 1 | $59.9K | 60,000 | 0 | +60,000 | Yes | +$60 | 03-04 18:52 |
| Will Trump dance today? | 4 | $57.8K | 57,847 | 0 | +57,847 | Yes | +$58 | 04-28 22:25 |
| earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times | 14 | $55.1K | 55,165 | 0 | +55,165 | Yes | +$55 | 01-23 13:39 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 45 | $52.7K | 91,793 | 20,687 | +71,106 | open | — | 06-09 16:39 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 82 | $44.6K | 93,257 | 0 | +93,257 | Yes | +$27,780 | 05-08 19:23 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||