Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$105

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

356

Trades

654

lifetime

Volume

$4.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$74

15 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 09-18 12:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Other

66% 48% -$56

Politics

17% 47% -$9

Crypto

12% 46% -$66

Tech

3% 80% +$42

Sports

2% 27% -$13

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+19	$11	95¢	$18	+$7	09-08 15:36
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+12	$10	86¢	$10	+$0	09-11 04:17
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$8	94¢	$9	+$2	09-05 17:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	+20	$17	42¢	$8	-$8	08-13 15:55
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+6	$4	90¢	$6	+$1	09-04 22:13
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	97¢	$5	+$3	09-08 15:33
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+5	$4	88¢	$4	+$1	09-12 02:49
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+6	$5	46¢	$3	-$2	08-15 23:58
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+5	$3	46¢	$2	-$1	09-12 07:59
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+19	$3	10¢	$2	-$1	08-29 22:28
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+68	$2	2¢	$2	$0	08-26 02:38
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	+2	$1	98¢	$2	+$1	09-08 07:26
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	No	+7	$5	20¢	$1	-$4	09-11 17:57
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026?	No	+1	$0	75¢	$1	+$1	09-18 12:36
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+6	$2	10¢	$1	-$1	09-02 21:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	3	$133	82	62	+20	Yes	+$2	09-11 17:22
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	3	$124	104	68	+36	Yes	-$4	08-28 17:17
atp leong matsuda 2026 09 02	4	$78	53	38	+15	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	+$1	09-02 08:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 22:05 UTC	2	$76	61	61	+0	Down	+$45	08-12 22:11
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	1	$71	80	0	+80	No	-$71	08-17 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$1	04-26 06:26
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	4	$61	35	35	+0	No	+$2	09-08 15:41
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?	2	$50	48	9	+39	No	+$4	09-09 23:27
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	2	$47	32	16	+16	No	+$1	09-11 21:32
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	2	$45	24	24	+0	No	+$1	08-28 17:17
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	2	$42	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	08-25 21:16
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	2	$40	21	21	+0	No	+$1	08-28 17:17
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	2	$40	93	0	+93	Yes	$0	08-15 21:23
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $52 in September?	2	$39	32	16	+16	No	+$3	09-15 13:40
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	09-18 12:36
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision?	1	$37	41	0	+41	Yes	+$4	08-13 03:05
atp faurel hemery 2026 09 02	2	$35	20	20	+0	Thomas Faurel	+$3	09-02 10:33
will right be said during the first joe rogan experience of the week of august 31	2	$33	27	8	+19	Yes	+$0	08-26 09:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	2	$33	23	11	+12	Yes	-$11	09-17 22:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 31-September 6?	2	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$1	09-03 13:53
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	2	$31	18	18	+0	open	—	09-18 12:36
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton	2	$31	22	11	+11	Ben Shelton	+$2	09-12 03:10
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	2	$31	18	18	+0	Yes	-$2	09-18 12:42
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	2	$31	20	12	+8	No	$0	09-08 13:03
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	4	$30	24	11	+13	Yes	+$2	09-12 14:12
atp monday ribecai 2026 08 27	2	$30	25	13	+13	Michele Ribecai	+$5	08-27 12:23
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?	1	$28	30	0	+30	Yes	+$2	08-30 14:46
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	3	$28	60	10	+50	Yes	-$17	08-28 17:17
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	2	$27	26	26	+0	No	+$15	09-18 12:36
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	3	$27	79	10	+68	Yes	+$0	09-01 13:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 12:42:57	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x8a7f61…
09-18 12:42:54	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x1ac80d…
09-18 12:42:53	Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	SELL	18	81¢	$15	0xf20669…
09-18 12:42:53	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x96474a…
09-18 12:36:57	Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x5e4e69…
09-18 12:36:20	Will LI.FI launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	12¢	$5	0x921b41…
09-18 12:36:20	Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x459da2…
09-18 12:36:18	Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	88	1¢	$1	0xf36cd1…
09-18 12:36:18	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in September?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x227ad1…
09-18 12:36:17	Will White House post 160-179 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0xd77f3d…
09-18 12:36:17	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xcde7e9…
09-18 12:36:17	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xb20e60…
09-18 12:36:17	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x7010d5…
09-18 12:36:17	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0x0778f5…
09-18 12:36:15	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xf8990f…
09-18 12:36:15	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xe4bcca…
09-18 12:36:15	Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xab4405…
09-18 12:36:15	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x829594…
09-18 12:36:15	Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0x422e72…
09-18 12:36:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x6ed42c…
09-18 12:36:09	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	No	SELL	26	82¢	$21	0x6661d7…
09-18 12:36:08	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x08ef12…
09-18 12:36:06	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x542e75…
09-18 12:36:06	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x052d1d…
09-18 12:36:05	Will Marcio Bittar win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x6410b1…
09-18 12:36:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0x16f4a2…
09-18 12:36:02	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0x88d7ba…
09-18 12:36:02	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	No	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x0a342a…
09-18 12:35:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xe04586…
09-18 12:35:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xb64ca3…
09-18 12:35:56	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x9ea266…
09-18 12:35:54	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0xd6bf1a…
09-18 12:35:50	Will Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xb096b2…
09-18 12:35:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0xca84e1…
09-18 12:35:42	iran oman hormuz agreement by september 30 823 929	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xa052bb…
09-18 09:54:00	Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	91	4¢	$4	0x54e70c…
09-18 05:18:28	will ethereum reach 2500 on september 18 2026	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x92a120…
09-17 22:58:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xef0fb3…
09-17 22:00:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0xf9d4c0…
09-17 16:00:57	Will White House post 160-179 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x36e83d…
09-17 14:19:09	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x8ca8e3…
09-17 06:26:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd9cdfb…
09-17 00:54:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf801d3…
09-17 00:07:45	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x1fd814…
09-15 16:48:16	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x7fff9f…
09-15 15:47:31	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x9bc97b…
09-15 15:24:16	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x6e557b…
09-15 13:49:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x109ff7…
09-15 13:40:16	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $52 in September?	No	SELL	16	81¢	$13	0x777c3b…
09-14 19:09:13	Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x0891f5…
09-14 19:09:12	Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xbc7ad2…
09-14 17:24:24	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x82e91c…
09-14 16:00:07	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0xd76f3b…
09-14 15:20:16	Will White House post 200+ posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0xaed6b9…
09-13 20:44:16	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xdd8d40…
09-12 22:13:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 14?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xcf2274…
09-12 20:32:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x40ce48…
09-12 20:18:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 13?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x7ebb3e…
09-12 20:05:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 13?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x7181ed…
09-12 18:35:49	Noche UFC: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos (Middleweight, Prelims)	Djorden Santos	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x795d6e…
09-12 18:34:54	Noche UFC: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (Welterweight, Prelims)	Muslim Salikhov	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x7c4314…
09-12 18:33:25	Noche UFC: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Main Card)	Jose Miguel Delgado	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x67b81e…
09-12 18:24:16	LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Team Vitality	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3c7a3f…
09-12 18:24:16	LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner	Team Vitality	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x02ef0e…
09-12 17:40:16	Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan State	Eastern Michigan	SELL	23	11¢	$3	0x4a9d91…
09-12 17:13:54	LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner	Team Vitality	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xa77cc7…
09-12 17:08:34	Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x499ff7…
09-12 17:08:16	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xfce8e2…
09-12 17:07:18	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xdd0f22…
09-12 16:50:16	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbb3466…
09-12 16:06:40	LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Team Vitality	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xcf4a4e…
09-12 15:57:54	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x837fcc…
09-12 15:28:46	LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner	Team Vitality	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x81f353…
09-12 15:18:16	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x842e4d…
09-12 14:48:55	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 14?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x83c0fa…
09-12 14:38:16	Cassis: Titouan Droguet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Titouan Droguet	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xfc72b9…
09-12 14:19:43	cs2 bb3 g2 2026 09 12	BetBoom Team	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x886def…
09-12 14:12:16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xae68fb…
09-12 14:01:43	Cassis: Titouan Droguet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Titouan Droguet	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x8a87b3…
09-12 13:50:04	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	11¢	$4	0x49ed86…
09-12 13:46:25	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe93c86…
09-12 13:39:36	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 13?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x18f7cf…
09-12 13:38:16	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0xb3ed14…
09-12 13:31:13	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x3fe639…
09-12 13:26:33	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xb45af2…
09-12 13:23:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xa033f0…
09-12 13:21:12	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xd0dc66…
09-12 13:19:36	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x760431…
09-12 13:18:16	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x4e8995…
09-12 13:16:24	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0x871a7f…
09-12 13:10:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x358828…
09-12 13:08:58	Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x3db7aa…
09-12 13:06:37	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	G2	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x4828aa…
09-12 13:05:46	Will Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xf7880d…
09-12 13:05:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x2208b9…
09-12 12:48:16	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on September 13?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x2339ff…
09-12 12:39:31	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on September 12?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcf0fea…
09-12 12:36:03	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on September 13?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb16a35…
09-12 11:50:10	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x194bf5…
09-12 11:47:13	European T20 Premier League: Belfast Wolves vs Rotterdam Dockers	Rotterdam Dockers	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x96001c…