Orderly-Encirclement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$768

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 07-14 17:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

62% — —

Other

37% 67% $-5

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	5	$68	39	39	+0	open	—	03-31 20:39
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	04-13 15:38
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	9	$35	22,628	0	+22,628	open	—	03-25 14:14
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	1	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	06-12 20:31
north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	2	$29	26	26	+0	open	—	03-24 10:27
Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	3	$23	21	11	+11	No	$-7	04-25 14:07
will france strike iran by march 31	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	03-21 21:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-01 14:51
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$21	23	0	+23	open	—	04-12 19:52
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-24 09:59
will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-23 11:18
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	03-24 10:00
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-28 15:10
will trump meet with pope leo xiv in march 2026 589	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 10:01
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	2	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	07-11 12:11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	06-12 20:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	03-10 08:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	03-24 10:12
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$15	0	19	-19	open	—	06-10 05:51
will iran strike syria in march	2	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	03-11 10:17
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-20 21:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	04-12 18:41
will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	3	$11	12	12	+0	open	—	03-26 11:23
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	05-20 21:19
will russia capture toretske by march 31 2026	3	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-25 14:14
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	06-21 14:54
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	03-17 16:55
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	03-16 14:23
ukraine election called by august 31 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	07-03 13:09
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	06-12 21:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 17:51:40	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xcc7164…
07-14 17:05:50	Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xa4898f…
07-11 12:11:10	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb00f02…
07-11 11:55:41	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x42d44a…
07-11 11:55:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb71d14…
07-07 13:26:29	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x35b1f6…
07-07 13:23:40	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x4d6208…
07-03 13:09:40	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x17d708…
07-03 13:04:10	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa53743…
06-29 13:49:40	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xaae729…
06-21 14:54:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x34c2be…
06-12 21:02:00	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xfd0160…
06-12 21:01:36	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xe0e167…
06-12 20:59:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xfe3990…
06-12 20:32:24	iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc29f76…
06-12 20:31:36	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xdb6479…
06-12 20:31:03	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xf606e7…
06-10 05:51:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x4b7e77…
06-06 12:11:16	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x6628b8…
05-29 11:56:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1c7e27…
05-28 15:10:19	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x805bcf…
05-20 21:26:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x3e44d6…
05-20 21:20:01	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x2c72a8…
05-20 21:19:47	Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xb8dc05…
05-20 12:25:56	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdc67e1…
05-11 09:47:11	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x28b1dd…
05-11 09:46:32	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa3d67c…
05-10 19:34:03	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7eec25…
05-01 15:09:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xe909a4…
05-01 15:06:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x018e2e…
05-01 14:51:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x15dbff…
04-25 14:07:18	Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0xc59db0…
04-23 16:23:22	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa3fbd4…
04-23 16:22:48	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x647b76…
04-23 10:47:48	Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x3a2f9b…
04-13 15:38:15	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x804984…
04-12 19:52:07	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x388d49…
04-12 19:49:29	will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x005b2a…
04-12 19:41:35	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x51bca3…
04-12 18:41:21	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x2dfa36…
04-12 13:51:39	Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x293c0e…
04-12 13:51:21	Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x99fcf6…
04-12 13:43:27	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x3488fc…
04-12 13:41:51	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	No	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xe82a95…
04-07 09:32:51	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xdfd710…
04-06 23:37:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb3bf5a…
03-31 20:39:59	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x318fcb…
03-30 15:52:21	blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xcd72b8…
03-29 12:33:46	blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb86254…
03-28 00:23:05	blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x792eb0…
03-26 11:23:15	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x681523…
03-25 14:14:51	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	1,560	0¢	$2	0x403fb5…
03-25 14:14:35	will russia capture toretske by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xe5464e…
03-25 14:00:49	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	10,360	0¢	$10	0x78c5e1…
03-25 14:00:21	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0xe65ca3…
03-25 13:52:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	3,640	0¢	$4	0x1f74f9…
03-25 13:51:31	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x099cd1…
03-25 13:50:41	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa0e56b…
03-24 15:10:59	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xea73fb…
03-24 10:27:37	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	SELL	26	70¢	$19	0xc7480c…
03-24 10:22:15	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9fcefc…
03-24 10:12:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x7678c5…
03-24 10:03:53	will victoria mboko win the 2026 womens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x713a58…
03-24 10:03:47	will elena rybakina win the 2026 womens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x34df23…
03-24 10:03:41	will aryna sabalenka win the 2026 womens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x3840fe…
03-24 10:01:17	will trump meet with pope leo xiv in march 2026 589	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1df308…
03-24 10:00:45	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0xc96031…
03-24 09:59:39	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x6c6107…
03-24 09:41:29	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x44cd5c…
03-23 11:18:41	will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xac9a35…
03-21 21:27:25	will trump say finish the job this week march 22	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa24fbf…
03-21 21:21:13	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x03be1d…
03-21 21:20:45	will france strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x869853…
03-20 12:49:01	will trump say khamenei or ayatollah during trophy presentation	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x273bb9…
03-18 21:11:01	blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x971207…
03-17 17:09:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x2e32d8…
03-17 16:55:21	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x616208…
03-17 16:54:03	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xa3d7f2…
03-17 13:08:25	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	No	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x1eeca1…
03-17 13:08:05	will russia capture toretske by march 31 2026	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xdcbc5b…
03-16 14:23:59	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xd1e171…
03-15 22:45:53	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x01cfd9…
03-11 14:46:53	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x0563f4…
03-11 10:17:53	will iran strike syria in march	No	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0xe4a5ae…
03-10 08:43:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x1ea56c…
03-10 08:39:41	will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x9df7f3…
03-08 20:35:25	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xa2f7cc…
03-01 22:54:01	will russia capture toretske by march 31 2026	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x911c30…
03-01 22:41:21	will trump say angela or merkel during meetings with chancellor merz	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8c3550…
03-01 22:32:25	Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x65144e…
03-01 22:29:39	will france strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xfb7894…
03-01 22:28:01	will melanias remarks not air	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x53d005…
03-01 22:18:27	will trump meet with pope leo xiv in march 2026 589	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x55b55b…
03-01 22:17:07	will trump say geneva convention during medal of honor ceremony on march 2	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x35e5e2…
03-01 22:12:15	will iran strike syria in march	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x669430…
03-01 22:06:27	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xbb5552…
03-01 21:58:01	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xaf465c…
03-01 21:56:01	will bitcoin outperform gold in march 2026	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x821697…