Overlooked-Dissonance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.4%

Resolved

Trades

235

lifetime

Volume

$24.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 07-16 10:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

41% — —

Other

30% — —

Crypto

15% — —

Sports

14% 71% $-25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	8	$3.9K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	03-08 13:45
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$2.8K	1,532	1,532	+0	open	—	02-27 11:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	5	$2.4K	1,225	1,225	+0	open	—	05-06 12:22
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	1	$1.6K	1,624	0	+1,624	open	—	01-29 23:03
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	2	$1.0K	512	512	+0	open	—	03-19 04:13
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	4	$882	444	444	+0	open	—	03-28 07:37
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$635	705	0	+705	open	—	07-16 10:44
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$629	346	346	+0	open	—	03-13 02:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$600	307	307	+0	open	—	06-08 00:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	14	$588	345	345	+0	open	—	06-16 23:34
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	1	$500	506	0	+506	open	—	04-14 16:07
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	2	$405	233	233	+0	open	—	07-16 10:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	2	$403	254	254	+0	open	—	06-16 23:34
will hyperliquid reach 92 in june	2	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	07-01 00:04
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$398	203	203	+0	open	—	04-17 20:50
mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	3	$360	426	323	+103	open	—	02-20 17:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$321	2,143	2,143	+0	open	—	07-08 06:46
putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	1	$300	366	0	+366	open	—	07-10 18:41
will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	7	$300	244	102	+141	open	—	06-21 08:30
will canada win the mens ice hockey bronze medal at the 2026 winter olympics	1	$260	260	0	+260	open	—	02-20 18:11
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	1	$257	0	260	-260	open	—	06-01 15:07
will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	2	$248	130	130	+0	open	—	06-16 23:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$243	127	127	+0	open	—	03-16 09:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	10	$214	175	91	+84	open	—	06-14 22:47
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Mammoth vs. Golden Knights	1	$200	263	0	+263	open	—	04-20 18:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$150	200	0	+200	open	—	03-04 14:21
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1	$150	0	150	-150	open	—	06-08 00:39
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	2	$141	72	72	+0	open	—	06-08 12:00
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$129	2,543	2,543	+0	open	—	04-03 12:50
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	1	$123	131	0	+131	open	—	03-16 09:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 10:48:04	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7c7e6d…
07-16 10:47:43	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x20a024…
07-16 10:44:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0xc0fa96…
07-16 10:43:43	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	233	88¢	$205	0xae1a51…
07-10 18:43:16	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x5fe8cd…
07-10 18:42:43	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0x0d4667…
07-10 18:41:38	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0x79ab33…
07-08 06:46:59	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,143	8¢	$171	0xdce505…
07-06 20:44:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,143	7¢	$150	0x0dca9c…
07-06 20:43:17	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xe017f3…
07-06 20:42:59	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x38a11c…
07-06 20:42:23	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0x632ba0…
07-01 00:06:10	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xad3eec…
07-01 00:05:40	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xf50bfa…
07-01 00:04:50	will hyperliquid reach 92 in june	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x7d0142…
07-01 00:04:01	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x1b4f82…
07-01 00:03:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xc417db…
06-25 16:21:08	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x7255f0…
06-25 16:18:29	will hyperliquid reach 88 in june	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4be225…
06-25 16:18:23	will hyperliquid reach 92 in june	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xf6ede6…
06-21 08:30:04	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	SELL	102	92¢	$93	0x8ba1b2…
06-19 17:18:05	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xa57b10…
06-19 16:41:46	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x1512ad…
06-19 15:43:53	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	BUY	39	79¢	$31	0xf0770f…
06-18 23:42:59	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xae02b1…
06-18 23:42:49	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	BUY	89	79¢	$71	0xa0f552…
06-16 23:42:23	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x21d7ec…
06-16 23:34:52	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	SELL	130	99¢	$128	0x284859…
06-16 23:34:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	254	100¢	$253	0xcf2f1c…
06-16 23:34:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	100¢	$344	0x08de7c…
06-14 22:47:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xb03662…
06-14 22:47:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x1b33e3…
06-14 18:59:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x323d86…
06-14 16:37:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$12	0xe69630…
06-14 13:52:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xb397a1…
06-14 11:08:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$4	0xc8752f…
06-14 05:48:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xac77d2…
06-14 05:46:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x678c00…
06-13 11:32:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	81¢	$30	0xc89572…
06-11 22:53:07	will hyperliquid reach 76 in june	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x42ff3a…
06-11 22:52:52	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x7fbcb6…
06-11 22:50:18	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x4abbcf…
06-09 01:59:33	nhl car las 2026 06 09	Hurricanes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xee933a…
06-09 01:57:34	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb298df…
06-09 01:56:39	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	107	20¢	$21	0x19aaa7…
06-08 12:00:46	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x7af0ad…
06-08 00:41:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	80¢	$140	0xc40300…
06-08 00:41:28	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	BUY	130	92¢	$120	0xf42bd0…
06-08 00:40:33	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0xb25b2f…
06-08 00:40:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	254	59¢	$150	0xbe203a…
06-08 00:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xaf8028…
06-08 00:39:37	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xf69821…
06-08 00:39:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	307	98¢	$300	0x6ce28e…
06-07 01:04:09	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	119	86¢	$102	0x814e22…
06-05 22:22:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	255	92¢	$235	0x3b6042…
06-04 23:50:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0xae4b40…
06-04 23:49:54	nhl las car 2026 06 04 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x95c5f0…
06-03 20:38:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Knicks	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0xc5d480…
06-02 21:49:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	72¢	$10	0x4393e2…
06-02 21:35:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x792788…
06-02 21:28:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x342a79…
06-02 21:28:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0317cc…
06-02 21:28:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$0	0xf863de…
06-02 21:27:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xede24f…
06-02 21:26:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	72¢	$58	0x8607d6…
06-02 21:20:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xf26e7b…
06-02 21:19:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	72¢	$31	0x062757…
06-02 21:17:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xf1e015…
06-02 20:51:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x141e62…
06-02 20:46:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x5b61ba…
06-02 07:20:53	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Hurricanes	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xd235be…
06-02 07:20:53	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Hurricanes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x600479…
06-02 07:20:53	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Hurricanes	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x276723…
06-02 04:37:01	UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Bo Nickal	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x2b698d…
06-02 04:35:53	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xc56815…
06-02 04:35:04	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Hurricanes	BUY	51	51¢	$26	0xce80ff…
06-02 04:34:36	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	60	60¢	$36	0x7a4041…
06-02 04:34:05	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x43e763…
06-02 04:31:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x8f4ca2…
06-01 15:07:04	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	260	99¢	$257	0xfaaffc…
05-29 02:15:14	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x2ea34e…
05-29 02:14:25	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	75	51¢	$38	0xc50227…
05-29 02:13:50	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	110	31¢	$34	0xd149ae…
05-29 02:11:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	43¢	$47	0x7f2659…
05-29 02:09:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	88¢	$48	0xec8db9…
05-27 00:58:30	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xf1e78c…
05-26 20:28:22	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x896132…
05-26 19:27:54	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Avalanche	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x3ad1b5…
05-25 16:03:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	64¢	$36	0x11ccf6…
05-23 18:22:05	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x66ef59…
05-23 17:18:44	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x92b67e…
05-15 04:15:51	Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4bd207…
05-15 04:15:43	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x6429cb…
05-13 19:43:14	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xd63b90…
05-13 19:42:57	Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x909718…
05-13 19:42:30	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xfa0ab8…
05-13 19:42:15	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xf270dd…
05-13 19:42:01	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x5c9027…
05-12 01:12:35	Avalanche vs. Wild	Avalanche	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xe58d6b…
05-12 01:12:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x577c13…