Realized P&L (7d)
-$501
Unrealized P&L
+$626
Hit rate
5.0%
Resolved (7d)
396
Trades (7d)
4,815
69,703 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$49.9K
$571.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$5.00K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-29 06:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Other
46% 12% -$2,299
Politics
46% 11% -$819
Sports
6% 14% -$134
Tech
1% 11% -$82
Crypto
1% 4% -$35
Pop-Culture
0% 7% -$22
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 2062 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +424 $237 83¢ $352 +$115 10-07 01:23
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +305 $88 87¢ $265 +$177 10-12 08:22
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No +302 $267 86¢ $261 -$6 10-27 21:03
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +258 $223 88¢ $227 +$4 09-26 07:18
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +210 $186 99¢ $208 +$22 09-22 09:46
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes +260 $198 76¢ $199 +$1 10-20 21:43
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +197 $159 96¢ $189 +$30 10-06 11:15
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +247 $178 74¢ $183 +$4 10-28 07:52
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes +200 $168 84¢ $168 +$0 10-21 15:17
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +179 $156 94¢ $167 +$11 09-17 12:39
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +206 $150 78¢ $159 +$9 10-20 23:34
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? No +183 $137 86¢ $159 +$22 10-07 00:29
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? No — +295 $112 52¢ $155 +$43 10-19 10:24
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +177 $109 87¢ $154 +$45 10-16 21:20
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +170 $144 89¢ $151 +$7 10-04 11:17
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +196 $161 75¢ $146 -$15 10-17 09:21
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? Yes +224 $118 64¢ $143 +$25 10-20 22:47
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +190 $146 74¢ $142 -$4 10-18 02:26
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? Yes — +295 $189 48¢ $140 -$49 10-19 10:24
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +210 $167 66¢ $140 -$28 10-05 12:15
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +234 $120 60¢ $139 +$19 10-20 00:58
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +150 $130 92¢ $137 +$7 09-26 14:30
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +170 $135 80¢ $137 +$2 10-19 09:22
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +158 $36 87¢ $137 +$100 10-12 04:03
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No +151 $103 88¢ $132 +$28 10-12 03:50
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +131 $112 100¢ $131 +$19 09-24 10:36
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +137 $108 92¢ $126 +$18 10-26 17:39
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes +200 $128 60¢ $119 -$10 10-22 20:28
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +135 $107 86¢ $117 +$9 10-28 08:34
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +131 $100 88¢ $116 +$16 09-28 21:22