Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MD-01 House election by 9%-12%?
open
Total volume
$4,092
$45 in 24h
Trades
426
Unique wallets
88
Liquidity
$95
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-27
last 11-05 17:05
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-14.1¢
(top1%: 10% YES on $535
vs crowd: 24% YES on $3.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 35 | $406 | $1.4K | $984 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 31 | $319 | $764 | $446 |
| 🐟 Fish | 19 | $28 | $245 | $217 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | $5 | $48 | $43 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 21 | $51 | $484 | $432 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $25 | $131 | $106 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $27 | — | +$27 |
| Median | 1 | $76 | — | +$76 |
| Below median | 1 | $4 | $16 | $12 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 13 | $27 | $208 | $181 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 21 | $150 | $541 | $391 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 22 | $397 | $1.1K | $670 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +965 | $196 | $196 | 32 | 11-02 15:09 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +496 | $360 | $360 | 17 | 10-25 02:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | +150 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 11-04 03:14 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +139 | $110 | $110 | 3 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +98 | $77 | $84 | 8 | 10-30 16:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +98 | $21 | $21 | 4 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +88 | $19 | $25 | 11 | 10-27 08:39 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +88 | $69 | $69 | 4 | 10-27 08:39 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | +87 | $69 | $69 | 7 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +86 | $17 | $17 | 6 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +82 | $65 | $65 | 3 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +71 | $56 | $57 | 5 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +71 | $15 | $16 | 6 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | +63 | $61 | $321 | 24 | 11-05 17:05 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +60 | $10 | $77 | 17 | 11-04 02:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +60 | $13 | $21 | 5 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +60 | $49 | $111 | 7 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x38cf…d885 | No | +58 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 09-01 07:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +54 | $44 | $103 | 8 | 10-23 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +54 | $14 | $28 | 9 | 10-25 19:12 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | +50 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 10-23 06:30 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +50 | $39 | $39 | 2 | 10-23 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +49 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 10-13 10:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +49 | $37 | $37 | 3 | 10-13 10:03 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +49 | $45 | $45 | 4 | 09-01 07:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | +48 | $38 | $38 | 3 | 10-27 08:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | +48 | $11 | $11 | 5 | 10-27 08:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +47 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 09-01 18:23 |
| Mortified-Circumstance 0x6dd5…dd4b | No | +45 | $38 | $38 | 1 | 11-05 17:05 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +41 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +41 | $35 | $93 | 6 | 10-25 02:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +40 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 11-05 17:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +39 | $9 | $11 | 6 | 10-25 03:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +39 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 10-25 02:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +38 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +38 | $12 | $21 | 4 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | +36 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-29 07:14 |
| Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | No | +36 | $28 | $28 | 2 | 10-26 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +35 | $11 | $26 | 6 | 10-26 10:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +35 | $27 | $27 | 2 | 10-25 02:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +32 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +32 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +30 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +30 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x1142…12da | Yes | +29 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 11-02 22:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xafb3…41d8 | No | +24 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 10-17 00:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | +22 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 09-30 16:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x3922…3aa4 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 11-04 03:14 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +20 | $7 | $38 | 10 | 10-26 00:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-26 21:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-23 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-23 06:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-23 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-25 18:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-23 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 10-26 21:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-22 02:45 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-29 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-24 16:36 |
| Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | Yes | +16 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 09-26 15:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-05 17:05:15 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 28 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x892f36… |
| 11-05 17:05:15 | Mortified-Circumstance 0x6dd5…dd4b | No | BUY | 45 | 84¢ | $38 | 0x892f36… |
| 11-05 17:05:15 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 17 | 84¢ | $14 | 0x892f36… |
| 11-04 10:09:28 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xbdb96e… |
| 11-04 10:09:28 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | Yes | SELL | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xbdb96e… |
| 11-04 03:14:33 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 150 | 10¢ | $15 | 0x99cb0a… |
| 11-04 03:14:33 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | SELL | 70 | 10¢ | $7 | 0x99cb0a… |
| 11-04 03:14:33 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 60 | 90¢ | $54 | 0x99cb0a… |
| 11-04 03:14:33 | (anonymous) 0x3922…3aa4 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x99cb0a… |
| 11-04 02:28:03 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 22¢ | $11 | 0xfced97… |
| 11-04 02:28:03 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xfced97… |
| 11-04 02:28:03 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 70 | 22¢ | $16 | 0xfced97… |
| 11-02 22:40:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x3150ef… |
| 11-02 22:40:25 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x3150ef… |
| 11-02 22:40:25 | (anonymous) 0x1142…12da | Yes | BUY | 29 | 18¢ | $5 | 0x3150ef… |
| 11-02 15:09:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 18¢ | $5 | 0xfc2f5c… |
| 11-02 15:09:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 26 | 18¢ | $5 | 0xfc2f5c… |
| 10-30 16:18:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 37¢ | $0 | 0x9bba25… |
| 10-30 16:18:24 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | SELL | 1 | 63¢ | $1 | 0x9bba25… |
| 10-29 07:16:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xa1badc… |
| 10-29 07:16:11 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xa1badc… |
| 10-29 07:14:58 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xc3f955… |
| 10-29 07:14:58 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xc3f955… |
| 10-29 07:14:43 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 32 | 83¢ | $27 | 0xfc992c… |
| 10-29 07:14:43 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xfc992c… |
| 10-29 07:14:40 | (anonymous) 0x12d9…1a06 | No | BUY | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0xf5978d… |
| 10-29 07:14:40 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xf5978d… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 83¢ | $20 | 0x85f46a… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xcf48b2… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x85f46a… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | (anonymous) 0x12d9…1a06 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x85f46a… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 0 | 77¢ | $0 | 0xb9cf54… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 77¢ | $0 | 0xb9cf54… |
| 10-29 07:14:38 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xcf48b2… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 32 | 81¢ | $26 | 0xad1daa… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x8febe0… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 8 | 82¢ | $7 | 0xd37427… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x80f3a3… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xb46aec… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 19¢ | $8 | 0xf84e9f… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xcdda3f… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x83393c… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | BUY | 30 | 81¢ | $25 | 0xa844ea… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | Yes | BUY | 12 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x26db98… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xcdda3f… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0x26db98… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xd37427… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x83393c… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xad1daa… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xa844ea… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xa844ea… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | BUY | 41 | 81¢ | $33 | 0xf84e9f… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 61 | 81¢ | $49 | 0x8febe0… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xcdda3f… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 52 | 81¢ | $42 | 0x80f3a3… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 19¢ | $5 | 0x8febe0… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 32 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x80f3a3… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 13 | 19¢ | $3 | 0xb46aec… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xb46aec… |
| 10-29 07:14:37 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x8febe0… |
| 10-28 17:15:52 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xdf2bc3… |
| 10-28 17:15:52 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xdf2bc3… |
| 10-28 16:57:19 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 22¢ | $3 | 0xd456a5… |
| 10-28 16:57:19 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 12 | 78¢ | $9 | 0xd456a5… |
| 10-28 03:54:58 | (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | BUY | 8 | 78¢ | $6 | 0xce19a5… |
| 10-28 03:54:58 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xc25290… |
| 10-28 03:54:58 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0xce19a5… |
| 10-28 03:54:58 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xc25290… |
| 10-27 08:40:11 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xf56aea… |
| 10-27 08:40:11 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xf56aea… |
| 10-27 08:39:56 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xd40cb9… |
| 10-27 08:39:56 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xd40cb9… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x0d59ea… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xc70a60… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7aad0e… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 20¢ | $12 | 0x7aad0e… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7aad0e… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7aad0e… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x0d59ea… |
| 10-27 08:39:54 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xc70a60… |
| 10-26 23:44:51 | (anonymous) 0xa410…0e3e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x459335… |
| 10-26 23:44:51 | Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | No | BUY | 16 | 79¢ | $13 | 0x459335… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x791b14… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 12¢ | $5 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 122 | 12¢ | $15 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 12¢ | $3 | 0xbb3a66… |
| 10-26 21:01:02 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x791b14… |
| 10-26 10:59:33 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xcafec1… |
| 10-26 10:59:33 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xcafec1… |
| 10-26 10:59:33 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 16¢ | $6 | 0xcafec1… |
| 10-26 08:41:56 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | SELL | 4 | 81¢ | $3 | 0x197e25… |
| 10-26 08:41:56 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 4 | 81¢ | $3 | 0x197e25… |
| 10-26 08:41:48 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0xa6ecaf… |
| 10-26 08:41:48 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0xa6ecaf… |
| 10-26 00:21:20 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 8 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xdb64d7… |
| 10-26 00:21:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xdb64d7… |
| 10-26 00:21:20 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 4 | 81¢ | $3 | 0xdb64d7… |