Realized P&L
-$152
Unrealized P&L
-$786
Hit rate
58.4%
Resolved
44
Trades
72,978
lifetime
Volume
$1.04M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$3.62K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
45%
67%
$-61
Politics
26%
62%
$-299
Crypto
24%
64%
+$205
Sports
3%
100%
+$2
Tech
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 1588 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | -965 | $-618 | 68¢ | $-651 | $-34 | 06-02 14:26 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +593 | $320 | 89¢ | $528 | +$207 | 05-31 15:04 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | +4,099 | $1,860 | 10¢ | $389 | $-1,471 | 05-29 18:09 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? | No | +629 | $233 | 42¢ | $267 | +$35 | 06-09 16:54 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | -800 | $-273 | 24¢ | $-196 | +$77 | 05-31 20:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +696 | $63 | 26¢ | $177 | +$115 | 06-09 19:33 | |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | -466 | $-208 | 26¢ | $-123 | +$85 | 06-09 21:18 | |
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | No | -114 | $-103 | 99¢ | $-113 | $-10 | 05-28 18:28 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | +418 | $75 | 23¢ | $96 | +$21 | 06-09 01:49 | |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | -301 | $-98 | 29¢ | $-87 | +$11 | 06-07 14:48 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | -178 | $-80 | 46¢ | $-81 | $-1 | 06-08 00:25 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? | Yes | +129 | $16 | 57¢ | $74 | +$58 | 06-09 14:40 | |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | No | -1,115 | $-228 | 6¢ | $-72 | +$156 | 05-30 18:11 | |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | No | -94 | $-83 | 71¢ | $-67 | +$16 | 05-30 21:01 | |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | Yes | -549 | $-75 | 11¢ | $-62 | +$12 | 06-02 18:32 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? | Yes | -78 | $-11 | 79¢ | $-62 | $-50 | 06-08 13:52 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? | No | +279 | $63 | 21¢ | $59 | $-5 | 06-09 16:40 | |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | -219 | $-116 | 26¢ | $-58 | +$57 | 06-08 19:49 | |
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | Yes | -61 | $-52 | 92¢ | $-57 | $-5 | 05-29 13:42 | |
| Blue wave in 2026? | Yes | -62 | $-42 | 75¢ | $-47 | $-4 | 06-01 08:09 | |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | -204 | $-43 | 20¢ | $-41 | +$2 | 06-08 23:17 | |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | Yes | -62 | $-38 | 64¢ | $-40 | $-3 | 06-01 22:54 | |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | -760 | $-31 | 5¢ | $-39 | $-8 | 06-02 19:03 | |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | -49 | $-63 | 76¢ | $-37 | +$26 | 06-05 15:54 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | Yes | +444 | $85 | 8¢ | $37 | $-48 | 06-07 19:53 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | Yes | +329 | $57 | 11¢ | $35 | $-22 | 06-08 20:28 | |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | -179 | $-44 | 18¢ | $-33 | +$11 | 05-31 02:30 | |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | -72 | $-17 | 43¢ | $-31 | $-15 | 06-03 15:56 | |
| Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | -70 | $-33 | 44¢ | $-31 | +$2 | 06-05 10:10 | |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | Yes | +94 | $31 | 32¢ | $30 | $-1 | 06-09 21:35 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 726 | $132.5K | 23,197 | 06-09 21:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 679 | $106.7K | 29,177 | 04-27 02:34 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 611 | $3.30M | 71,544 | 06-09 20:35 |
| Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389 | 606 | $717.7K | 103,858 | 06-09 20:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 585 | $719.6K | 72,761 | 04-01 07:11 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | 580 | $1.11M | 82,251 | 06-09 21:28 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 574 | $1.29M | 104,086 | 06-01 05:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 573 | $63.1K | 24,755 | 06-09 19:53 |