Realized P&L
-$152
Unrealized P&L
+$171
Hit rate
58.4%
Resolved
44
Trades
113,450
lifetime
Volume
$1.58M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$1.22K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
48% 67% $-61
Politics
23% 62% $-299
Crypto
18% 64% +$205
Sports
9% 100% +$2
Tech
2%
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 3815 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -353 $-193 82¢ $-289 $-97 06-15 15:59
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes -423 $-132 26¢ $-108 +$24 06-20 08:37
Fed rate hike in 2026? No -178 $-186 42¢ $-74 +$112 07-13 17:55
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -94 $-83 74¢ $-70 +$12 05-30 21:01
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -169 $-104 38¢ $-63 +$40 06-24 08:22
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +96 $46 52¢ $50 +$5 06-15 18:14
Blue wave in 2026? Yes -62 $-42 76¢ $-47 $-5 06-01 08:09
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No -49 $-63 88¢ $-43 +$20 06-05 15:54
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes -62 $-38 66¢ $-41 $-4 06-01 22:54
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes -760 $-31 $-41 $-11 06-02 19:03
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No -40 $-36 96¢ $-38 $-2 06-12 10:29
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $56 46¢ $36 $-20 06-15 00:24
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -45 $-21 76¢ $-35 $-14 06-01 19:12
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No -72 $-20 46¢ $-34 $-14 06-14 05:30
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No +38 $14 78¢ $29 +$15 06-15 11:47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +27 $-11 82¢ $23 +$34 06-19 07:43
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No -55 $-10 39¢ $-21 $-11 06-13 15:40
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes -278 $-31 $-21 +$10 07-20 13:10
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes -270 $-58 $-20 +$37 06-12 12:21
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -70 $-33 25¢ $-17 +$15 06-05 10:10
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes -103 $-9 15¢ $-15 $-6 06-01 22:43
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -179 $-44 $-13 +$31 05-31 02:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -76 $-30 18¢ $-13 +$17 06-19 22:04
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? Yes -166 $-3 $-12 $-8 07-10 06:06
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No -31 $-15 36¢ $-11 +$4 06-04 16:27
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Yes -49 $-11 22¢ $-11 +$0 05-28 10:31
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -20 $-5 56¢ $-11 $-6 06-15 01:03
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +17 $4 62¢ $10 +$7 05-30 09:25
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +48 $25 20¢ $10 $-15 06-01 15:50
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? No -12 $-10 84¢ $-10 +$0 06-05 15:26