Realized P&L
-$18.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$43
Hit rate
67.6%
Resolved
20,620
Trades
172,277
lifetime
Volume
$2.10M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$568
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 09-18 04:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 280 days
Categories
Other
55% 42% -$29,807
Politics
19% 59% +$9,844
Crypto
14% 56% -$3,640
Sports
10% 38% +$7,153
Tech
2% 54% -$2,086
Pop-Culture
0% 73% +$512
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
28 active days in 12wk • peak 642 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -342 -$125 95¢ $-324 -$199 06-15 16:30
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -94 -$83 83¢ $-78 +$4 05-30 21:01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No -49 -$77 93¢ $-45 +$31 06-05 15:54
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -45 -$33 86¢ $-39 -$6 06-01 19:12
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes +279 $82 6¢ $17 -$65 06-18 14:22
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes -512 -$56 3¢ $-14 +$42 08-09 21:02
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes -760 -$31 2¢ $-12 +$19 06-02 19:03
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes -20 -$12 44¢ $-9 +$3 06-01 17:35
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes -55 -$12 11¢ $-6 +$6 06-16 00:20
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -70 -$33 6¢ $-5 +$28 06-05 10:10
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No -5 -$20 84¢ $-4 +$16 05-27 13:37
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes -41 -$8 6¢ $-3 +$6 07-07 19:47
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +4 -$2 58¢ $2 +$4 05-30 09:25
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI -60 -$24 4¢ $-2 +$22 07-01 11:58
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $1 78¢ $2 +$1 06-16 02:07
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$1 05-31 23:27
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes +3 $1 32¢ $1 +$0 06-10 04:33
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes -13 -$4 5¢ $-1 +$4 05-02 20:57
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -10 -$8 6¢ $-1 +$7 06-01 18:50
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes +1 $0 34¢ $0 +$0 06-02 06:02
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? No +0 $0 95¢ $0 +$0 06-15 11:16
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat? No +3 $2 11¢ $0 -$1 05-26 16:20
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 -$7 10¢ $0 +$7 06-15 16:09
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +1 $0 36¢ $0 +$0 06-07 16:55
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +1 $0 51¢ $0 +$0 06-05 15:23
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $0 9¢ $0 $0 06-05 06:23
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 -$4 4¢ $0 +$4 05-30 14:49
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +0 -$5 94¢ $0 +$5 06-09 13:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No +0 -$17 86¢ $0 +$17 06-15 20:47
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026 No +0 -$86 92¢ $0 +$86 06-19 08:16