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Realized P&L (90d)
+$1.14K
Unrealized P&L
-$0
Hit rate
82.8%
Resolved (90d)
652
Trades (90d)
2,785
166,987 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$12.2K
$2.07M lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$567
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 09-18 04:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 287 days
Categories
Other
55% 42% -$29,876
Politics
19% 60% +$9,915
Crypto
14% 56% -$3,640
Sports
10% 38% +$7,139
Tech
2% 54% -$2,084
Pop-Culture
0% 73% +$512
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk • peak 302 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -342 -$125 95¢ $-323 -$198 06-15 16:30
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -94 -$83 86¢ $-82 +$1 05-30 21:01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No -49 -$77 96¢ $-47 +$30 06-05 15:54
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -45 -$33 94¢ $-42 -$9 06-01 19:12
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes -512 -$56 2¢ $-12 +$44 08-09 21:02
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes -760 -$31 2¢ $-12 +$19 06-02 19:03
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes -20 -$12 40¢ $-8 +$4 06-01 17:35
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes -55 -$12 9¢ $-5 +$7 06-16 00:20
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No -5 -$20 86¢ $-4 +$16 05-27 13:37
will thom tillis vote yea on the clarity act 20260729190926671 No +4 $1 94¢ $4 +$3 07-31 09:35
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -70 -$33 5¢ $-3 +$29 06-05 10:10
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -10 -$8 33¢ $-3 +$4 06-01 18:50
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes -41 -$8 8¢ $-3 +$5 07-07 19:47
california higher local tax vote threshold proposition No +3 $1 96¢ $3 +$2 07-12 22:21
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +4 -$2 64¢ $3 +$4 05-30 09:25
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $1 70¢ $2 +$1 06-16 02:07
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes +3 $0 44¢ $2 +$1 06-08 19:09
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? No +1 $0 94¢ $1 +$1 05-22 12:49
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$1 05-31 23:27
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI -60 -$24 2¢ $-1 +$23 07-01 11:58
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes +2 $0 49¢ $1 +$1 08-07 08:54
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes -13 -$4 6¢ $-1 +$3 05-02 20:57
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes +3 $1 20¢ $1 $0 06-10 04:33
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +1 $0 97¢ $1 +$0 06-05 15:23
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 -$7 15¢ $0 +$7 06-15 16:09
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes +1 $0 34¢ $0 +$0 06-02 06:02
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 +$0 06-15 11:16
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? Yes +2 $1 13¢ $0 $0 05-19 00:06
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +1 $0 33¢ $0 +$0 06-07 16:55
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $0 10¢ $0 $0 06-05 06:23