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Realized P&L (30d)
+$236
Unrealized P&L
+$113
Hit rate
76.9%
Resolved (30d)
46
Trades (30d)
0
172,277 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$0
$2.10M lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$554
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 09-18 04:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 285 days
Categories
Other
55% 42% -$29,873
Politics
19% 59% +$9,911
Crypto
14% 56% -$3,640
Sports
10% 38% +$7,110
Tech
2% 54% -$2,084
Pop-Culture
0% 73% +$512
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 302 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -342 -$125 95¢ $-324 -$198 06-15 16:30
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -94 -$83 86¢ $-81 +$2 05-30 21:01
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No -49 -$77 96¢ $-47 +$30 06-05 15:54
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -45 -$33 90¢ $-41 -$8 06-01 19:12
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes -512 -$56 3¢ $-15 +$41 08-09 21:02
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes -760 -$31 2¢ $-12 +$19 06-02 19:03
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes -20 -$12 42¢ $-8 +$4 06-01 17:35
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes -55 -$12 9¢ $-5 +$7 06-16 00:20
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No -5 -$20 86¢ $-4 +$16 05-27 13:37
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -70 -$33 5¢ $-3 +$29 06-05 10:10
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes -41 -$8 8¢ $-3 +$5 07-07 19:47
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +4 -$2 74¢ $3 +$5 05-30 09:25
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $1 74¢ $2 +$1 06-16 02:07
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$1 05-31 23:27
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI -60 -$24 2¢ $-1 +$23 07-01 11:58
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -10 -$8 10¢ $-1 +$7 06-01 18:50
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Yes -13 -$4 6¢ $-1 +$3 05-02 20:57
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes +3 $1 22¢ $1 $0 06-10 04:33
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes +1 $0 34¢ $0 +$0 06-02 06:02
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? No +0 $0 95¢ $0 +$0 06-15 11:16
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +1 $0 58¢ $0 +$0 06-05 15:23
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 -$7 10¢ $0 +$7 06-15 16:09
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +1 $0 34¢ $0 +$0 06-07 16:55
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes +2 $0 10¢ $0 $0 06-05 06:23
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? Yes +2 $1 12¢ $0 $0 05-19 00:06
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +0 -$5 94¢ $0 +$5 06-09 13:35
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 -$4 2¢ $0 +$4 05-30 14:49
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026 No +0 -$86 94¢ $0 +$86 06-19 08:16
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No +0 -$17 82¢ $0 +$17 06-15 20:47
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No +0 -$8 95¢ $0 +$8 05-10 20:19