Gummy-Casserole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

963

lifetime

Volume

$25.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-26 21:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

84% 75% +$28

Politics

16% 100% +$15

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	28	$1.5K	1,116	469	+647	open	—	03-18 06:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	9	$1.4K	730	730	+0	open	—	03-08 20:33
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	27	$867	570	363	+207	open	—	03-15 17:19
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	33	$861	698	254	+445	open	—	04-24 21:58
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	27	$844	660	312	+348	open	—	04-27 00:57
fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412	15	$685	756	0	+756	open	—	01-14 09:06
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	12	$645	340	340	+0	open	—	03-28 21:52
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	12	$562	440	226	+214	open	—	02-13 23:57
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	12	$494	261	261	+0	open	—	03-17 05:03
nothing ever happens interest rates	14	$491	249	257	-9	open	—	03-19 05:42
will the reserve bank of australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	33	$489	413	363	+50	open	—	03-12 05:27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	13	$488	250	260	-10	open	—	04-21 21:48
will the bank of canada announce no change at the january meeting	4	$454	0	461	-461	open	—	01-07 08:17
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	6	$440	230	230	+0	open	—	01-10 13:35
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	15	$434	238	238	+0	open	—	06-21 05:30
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	14	$433	216	266	-50	open	—	03-20 01:17
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	8	$418	454	0	+454	open	—	03-21 21:43
no change in bank of englands interest rates after march 2026 meeting 453	9	$401	426	0	+426	open	—	03-17 04:58
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	10	$384	390	30	+360	open	—	03-28 17:58
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	6	$379	200	200	+0	open	—	03-25 02:23
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$356	0	370	-370	open	—	01-28 03:26
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	8	$315	340	0	+340	Yes	+$25	05-01 02:29
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	6	$291	295	0	+295	open	—	04-07 20:12
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	5	$287	149	149	+0	open	—	02-20 02:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	8	$268	145	145	+0	open	—	04-17 00:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	9	$264	150	150	+0	open	—	03-09 22:54
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	7	$251	130	130	+0	open	—	03-28 21:52
judy shelton fed chair nomination odds 5 by feb 20	4	$243	131	131	+0	open	—	02-21 03:54
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	8	$237	265	0	+265	open	—	02-20 03:31
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	3	$219	115	115	+0	open	—	03-11 02:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 21:52:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x17e183…
06-26 21:51:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x09324e…
06-21 07:01:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x30b3aa…
06-21 05:31:41	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0xb771ee…
06-21 05:30:41	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xc6326c…
06-20 21:18:07	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x8437f7…
06-20 21:17:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x6fad13…
06-20 12:10:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xcafd8c…
06-20 04:00:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0x18cb1c…
06-19 17:29:29	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xce1950…
06-19 14:35:29	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x784638…
06-19 05:39:38	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	18	80¢	$14	0xee62a9…
06-18 15:30:35	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x805236…
06-18 15:21:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4bb9bf…
06-18 06:57:25	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xa04775…
06-18 06:50:49	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	18	76¢	$14	0x43e8e9…
06-17 23:57:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1980a5…
06-17 23:57:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x70b492…
06-17 15:26:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3a91b9…
06-17 12:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x93a0c4…
06-17 12:42:25	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	100	92¢	$91	0x88b9ce…
06-17 12:42:08	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xaaa1d1…
06-16 15:44:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xfb3efe…
06-16 14:03:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0xee6540…
06-16 03:56:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0xa50181…
06-15 21:43:21	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xb4d154…
06-15 21:13:30	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xdac764…
06-15 16:03:28	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x85b400…
06-15 08:21:58	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$6	0x6eda11…
06-15 04:53:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x38210e…
06-15 04:53:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xbc1e4b…
06-15 02:46:25	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x1d6cf7…
06-15 02:44:39	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb7d6bc…
06-15 00:10:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	45	17¢	$8	0x534cbe…
06-14 22:51:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x60a743…
06-14 05:27:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	15	77¢	$12	0xbb82b9…
06-14 05:09:03	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xcef3b0…
06-14 05:08:37	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0xf1a8e8…
06-14 05:08:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0x687b30…
06-14 04:04:33	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x78a286…
06-14 04:04:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xabda4c…
06-13 14:50:36	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x8617df…
06-13 14:47:19	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0xee2efe…
06-13 14:46:57	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xdd698b…
06-13 14:46:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x561d19…
06-12 22:43:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x55dc46…
06-12 22:42:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x7ed97d…
06-12 22:36:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x888933…
06-12 22:34:43	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x71aa18…
06-12 22:33:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x65a513…
06-12 21:54:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xe62611…
06-12 20:36:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xa1e656…
06-12 17:41:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x646352…
06-12 17:32:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7dd60f…
06-12 17:32:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xccb9d4…
06-12 17:31:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xf3d4b4…
06-12 16:49:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xbf8fc5…
06-12 16:08:24	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x19cab4…
06-12 15:02:43	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xeec4f7…
06-12 14:38:19	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x0b405b…
06-12 14:06:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x074b65…
06-12 13:55:06	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x579674…
06-12 13:44:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xaa08fa…
06-12 06:49:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc01ad1…
06-12 05:22:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x61492a…
06-12 04:54:48	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc8621a…
06-12 04:54:06	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x5d149d…
06-12 04:16:10	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x039714…
06-12 01:54:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xeb725a…
06-12 00:53:30	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x770479…
06-12 00:52:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xd2c844…
06-12 00:51:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x77b012…
06-12 00:51:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x6a9f0d…
06-12 00:49:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xddb606…
06-11 23:28:00	will spacexs valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x274a42…
06-11 07:37:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x5c302a…
06-11 07:27:40	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xfc9d86…
06-11 06:03:33	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xa76413…
06-11 05:49:33	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0xfe1a63…
06-11 04:58:25	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x3dbf06…
06-11 04:52:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xfbd1e1…
06-11 04:31:21	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x1192c6…
06-11 04:30:52	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x52d4ed…
06-11 00:56:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xb4fad0…
06-10 17:44:03	will spacexs valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x203e97…
06-10 14:52:21	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	SELL	70	90¢	$63	0x235180…
06-10 14:24:19	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0xd98ad3…
06-08 18:43:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8283ea…
06-08 03:58:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x134dc4…
06-07 10:12:51	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x56a756…
06-07 08:12:39	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x8f861f…
06-06 21:51:30	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xb5e826…
06-06 15:53:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x314672…
06-06 14:13:03	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x641480…
06-05 14:55:43	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0x6d9710…
06-05 06:30:55	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4f13ef…
06-05 00:55:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf273a9…
06-03 11:31:53	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x59314e…
06-03 07:07:20	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xdb69ab…
06-03 07:02:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0x553c56…