Gummy-Casserole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$526

Unrealized P&L

+$148

Hit rate

79.8%

Resolved

254

Trades

1,456

lifetime

Volume

$42.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$669

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 01:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

89% 74% +$459

Politics

10% 69% +$73

Tech

0% 67% +$5

Crypto

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+304	$247	100¢	$303	+$56	10-26 06:33
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+154	$88	92¢	$141	+$53	06-15 13:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$38	98¢	$49	+$11	10-04 23:41
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+50	$36	78¢	$39	+$3	10-03 13:45
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+35	$13	88¢	$31	+$18	06-11 06:03
will wti dip to 70 in october 2026	No	+20	$18	100¢	$20	+$2	10-01 08:46
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	-20	-$18	98¢	$-20	-$2	05-27 18:21
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+20	$15	80¢	$16	+$1	09-03 12:40
will wti reach 115 in october 2026	No	+10	$9	100¢	$10	+$1	10-01 09:05
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$1	09-02 16:22
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	+10	$8	92¢	$9	+$2	09-05 15:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-10	-$15	82¢	$-8	+$7	09-26 01:18
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	-10	-$6	78¢	$-8	-$1	05-10 17:52
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	-10	-$3	41¢	$-4	-$1	05-27 21:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-20	-$1	4¢	$-1	+$0	10-02 23:15
will wti reach 115 in october 2026	Yes	+10	$3	0¢	$0	-$3	10-19 22:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	17	$3.1K	1,930	1,632	+298	Yes	+$13	10-28 01:31
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	28	$1.8K	1,100	796	+304	open	—	10-26 06:33
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	17	$1.6K	1,040	1,040	+0	No	-$19	10-28 01:30
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	28	$1.5K	1,116	469	+647	Yes	+$52	03-18 06:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	9	$1.4K	730	730	+0	Yes	+$62	03-08 20:33
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	27	$867	570	363	+207	Yes	+$61	03-15 17:19
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	33	$861	698	254	+445	Yes	+$58	04-24 21:58
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	27	$844	660	312	+348	Yes	-$12	04-27 00:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$764	900	0	+900	Yes	+$136	09-16 05:52
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	12	$696	560	560	+0	open	—	10-24 16:14
fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412	15	$685	756	0	+756	No	+$71	01-14 09:06
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	12	$645	340	340	+0	No	+$29	03-28 21:52
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	7	$639	420	420	+0	Yes	-$2	10-28 01:29
Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	5	$571	300	300	+0	Yes	+$25	10-27 06:12
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	12	$562	440	226	+214	No	+$21	02-13 23:57
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	18	$500	600	0	+600	Yes	+$100	05-18 15:37
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	12	$494	261	261	+0	No	+$16	03-17 05:03
nothing ever happens interest rates	14	$491	249	257	-9	Yes	+$13	03-19 05:42
will the reserve bank of australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	33	$489	413	363	+50	No	-$232	03-12 05:27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	13	$488	250	260	-10	Yes	+$21	04-21 21:48
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	11	$483	499	0	+499	Yes	+$16	09-16 19:17
Fed rate hike in 2026?	13	$465	520	100	+420	Yes	+$51	09-16 14:53
will the bank of canada announce no change at the january meeting	4	$454	0	461	-461	Yes	-$7	01-07 08:17
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	6	$440	230	230	+0	No	+$11	01-10 13:35
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	15	$434	238	238	+0	No	+$5	06-21 05:30
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	14	$433	216	266	-50	No	+$25	03-20 01:17
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	8	$418	454	0	+454	Yes	+$36	03-21 21:43
no change in bank of englands interest rates after march 2026 meeting 453	9	$401	426	0	+426	Yes	+$24	03-17 04:58
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	10	$384	390	30	+360	No	+$17	03-28 17:58
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	6	$379	200	200	+0	No	+$12	03-25 02:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:36:36	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0xb83110…
10-28 01:36:27	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	220	82¢	$180	0x385ded…
10-28 01:31:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	892	96¢	$856	0x36a1e7…
10-28 01:30:15	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	400	85¢	$338	0x3801e9…
10-28 01:29:39	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	300	85¢	$254	0x241cbf…
10-27 06:44:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0xe0668b…
10-27 06:13:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x126ff4…
10-27 06:12:35	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x0a34b1…
10-27 06:12:24	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xdfc680…
10-27 05:22:12	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x07fbf6…
10-27 05:21:24	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xec76a2…
10-26 06:48:56	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xff7494…
10-26 06:33:24	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xfdd5ed…
10-26 06:33:03	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x958643…
10-26 05:56:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x2f9b91…
10-26 05:55:17	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x5bda55…
10-25 04:26:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xe351fc…
10-25 04:26:05	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0x3b036a…
10-24 16:14:32	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	75	30¢	$23	0x7553eb…
10-24 05:37:29	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0x3b606e…
10-24 05:36:38	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0xd6ccd1…
10-24 05:35:18	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	82	67¢	$55	0xd448e3…
10-24 05:34:30	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0x153714…
10-24 05:10:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	94¢	$85	0x25333e…
10-24 05:10:09	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	70	98¢	$69	0x751123…
10-24 05:08:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x904b44…
10-24 05:07:41	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	76	98¢	$75	0x3d644c…
10-24 04:51:12	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0xce9bc4…
10-24 02:59:20	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x57ebf6…
10-24 02:58:38	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x177f75…
10-24 02:57:06	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xc2fd6e…
10-24 02:49:57	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	260	81¢	$210	0x7ad84b…
10-23 01:24:47	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	84¢	$92	0x0b84e3…
10-21 02:31:30	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	260	61¢	$158	0x3bc1bd…
10-19 22:34:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	SELL	224	3¢	$7	0x996a06…
10-19 22:33:59	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	115	20¢	$23	0x4f1e0d…
10-19 06:02:36	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	68¢	$82	0x7b74db…
10-19 04:19:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe45d9a…
10-19 04:18:15	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x553328…
10-19 04:15:50	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x2776a8…
10-18 21:53:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x609d3e…
10-18 21:53:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xefd751…
10-18 08:07:51	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x898463…
10-18 04:23:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0xa4f6d8…
10-17 16:07:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in October?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xd44bfd…
10-16 01:25:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	122	70¢	$86	0xb3154d…
10-15 19:15:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	122	72¢	$88	0x8f72be…
10-15 19:14:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	245	72¢	$176	0xca8cbf…
10-15 06:41:52	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xa27aeb…
10-15 03:25:22	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	77¢	$108	0x738257…
10-15 00:24:20	will wti reach 115 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0xb5f498…
10-14 22:21:04	will wti reach 115 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xff4f1d…
10-14 00:07:01	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9757e7…
10-13 19:03:00	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9e25c1…
10-13 19:02:57	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xaf3b65…
10-13 17:32:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xba7efd…
10-13 17:32:01	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x67819c…
10-13 17:32:00	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x2a6a49…
10-13 14:00:02	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in October?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xb78f72…
10-13 13:50:28	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xc6611b…
10-13 08:00:25	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x1fcd54…
10-12 23:50:54	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x72a55b…
10-12 23:13:15	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x2fbca2…
10-12 22:56:51	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x3ee7a1…
10-12 22:19:11	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xab5c79…
10-12 20:24:06	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x7589b5…
10-12 19:16:12	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x4effbd…
10-12 18:25:44	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa3fbc0…
10-12 18:23:03	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x50761e…
10-12 17:57:44	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xc8eebd…
10-12 09:38:01	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x13c035…
10-10 23:14:24	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x484193…
10-10 20:08:51	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	SELL	18	61¢	$11	0x48a53e…
10-10 18:26:57	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x5de587…
10-10 07:23:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x79055b…
10-09 00:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x4186be…
10-09 00:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x4186be…
10-08 17:20:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xfc9d6b…
10-08 16:22:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x086d12…
10-08 10:29:11	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x89808f…
10-08 08:10:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x6b26c9…
10-07 20:40:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x499b55…
10-07 20:30:59	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$163	0x5722d2…
10-07 20:29:44	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xf4dc80…
10-07 09:22:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x902db4…
10-07 04:40:51	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xae2213…
10-06 04:52:00	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x4d5060…
10-05 00:03:40	will mu reach 1200 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x3543f3…
10-05 00:01:58	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in October?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xf08c56…
10-05 00:01:49	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in October?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8ea876…
10-04 23:41:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x239a36…
10-04 23:38:37	will wti reach 110 in october 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x84418a…
10-04 23:33:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd92a85…
10-04 23:19:38	will spy reach 810 in october 2026	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x3b9426…
10-04 18:17:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xdef741…
10-04 12:17:08	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x19ebe8…
10-04 10:00:58	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	180	94¢	$169	0x1eeb13…
10-03 13:45:56	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x7cefe6…
10-03 13:42:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	82¢	$205	0x63999d…
10-03 10:07:38	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	84¢	$14	0xeaff7b…