Realized P&L
-$63.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.10K
Hit rate
65.8%
Resolved
470
Trades
17,575
lifetime
Volume
$3.49M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$199
Open exposure
$134.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 19:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 143 days
Categories
Politics
63%
63%
-$61,335
Other
36%
59%
-$2,038
Sports
1%
67%
+$545
Crypto
1%
46%
-$1,005
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk
• peak 62 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 119 | $89.0K | 53,560 | 58,924 | -5,364 | No | -$2,151 | 05-21 12:39 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 152 | $76.3K | 45,387 | 45,707 | -321 | No | +$6,085 | 03-16 14:39 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 219 | $68.5K | 37,000 | 33,808 | +3,192 | No | +$770 | 01-28 12:35 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 23 | $62.8K | 32,540 | 32,100 | +440 | No | -$923 | 03-04 15:12 |
| iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31 | 68 | $61.7K | 32,919 | 36,270 | -3,351 | No | +$2,759 | 03-26 08:33 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 124 | $61.4K | 29,709 | 37,135 | -7,426 | No | +$3,832 | 04-27 17:37 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 16 | $47.1K | 22,000 | 30,491 | -8,491 | No | +$964 | 02-18 14:54 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 48 | $41.8K | 25,726 | 20,345 | +5,381 | No | +$2,302 | 01-31 11:09 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 61 | $39.5K | 31,253 | 32,258 | -1,005 | Yes | -$6,140 | 02-28 21:01 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 263 | $35.3K | 71,714 | 62,980 | +8,734 | No | -$1,135 | 05-31 15:20 |
| will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28 | 187 | $33.1K | 36,341 | 22,760 | +13,581 | Yes | +$1,131 | 02-27 16:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 92 | $32.7K | 30,775 | 30,877 | -102 | Yes | -$4,973 | 04-07 23:14 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 482 | $32.3K | 14,000 | 29,258 | -15,258 | open | — | 09-16 16:15 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | 65 | $32.0K | 11,088 | 22,542 | -11,453 | No | +$368 | 06-24 10:45 |
| israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026 | 79 | $32.0K | 18,000 | 18,000 | +0 | No | +$1,707 | 06-24 16:24 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 187 | $31.3K | 30,177 | 28,157 | +2,020 | Yes | -$427 | 06-14 21:16 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | 152 | $30.8K | 23,476 | 22,686 | +790 | No | +$1,580 | 05-28 21:17 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 210 | $30.5K | 52,700 | 24,467 | +28,233 | No | -$7,283 | 07-11 14:53 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | 79 | $30.1K | 14,806 | 16,300 | -1,494 | No | +$198 | 02-18 17:16 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 206 | $29.1K | 36,503 | 23,359 | +13,144 | No | -$1,955 | 05-23 18:08 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 168 | $27.4K | 24,427 | 24,427 | +0 | No | +$1,471 | 06-28 21:01 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | 104 | $26.7K | 14,050 | 15,750 | -1,700 | No | -$114 | 03-27 07:10 |
| will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147 | 75 | $26.7K | 16,898 | 11,523 | +5,374 | No | +$666 | 01-31 13:15 |
| will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026 715 | 64 | $26.6K | 14,456 | 14,456 | +0 | No | +$1,643 | 09-28 19:26 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 95 | $26.4K | 23,755 | 22,632 | +1,123 | Yes | -$1,997 | 02-28 07:25 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 40 | $26.1K | 0 | 26,658 | -26,658 | No | -$563 | 01-20 10:44 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | 64 | $25.9K | 18,254 | 16,354 | +1,900 | No | +$1,173 | 04-15 20:10 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 51 | $25.6K | 13,874 | 13,874 | +0 | No | +$1,164 | 03-06 07:41 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 35 | $25.3K | 29,219 | 8,000 | +21,219 | Yes | -$14,656 | 05-08 15:26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 70 | $25.0K | 45,900 | 506 | +45,394 | open | — | 10-03 05:20 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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