(anonymous) 0x9e258f…24afd6
2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$198
Unrealized P&L
+$381
Hit rate
68.5%
Resolved
353
Trades
2,253
lifetime
Volume
$51.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$4.71K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-10
last 10-27 10:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 72 days
Categories
Politics
52% 60% +$386
Other
43% 50% -$190
Tech
3% 50% -$18
Sports
1% 34% +$22
Crypto
0% 40% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
64 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +401 $345 94¢ $379 +$34 10-26 07:41
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +312 $290 92¢ $289 -$2 09-18 10:28
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +312 $293 90¢ $282 -$11 09-18 10:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +276 $209 94¢ $259 +$50 10-26 10:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +234 $214 100¢ $233 +$20 09-05 18:49
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +234 $191 98¢ $229 +$38 10-20 16:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +241 $177 94¢ $225 +$48 10-26 07:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +222 $205 99¢ $220 +$15 10-25 23:51
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +312 $168 66¢ $204 +$36 09-15 15:58
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +218 $183 78¢ $170 -$13 10-27 05:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +156 $137 96¢ $151 +$14 10-25 21:44
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +156 $144 96¢ $149 +$5 08-27 09:03
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +145 $138 96¢ $140 +$2 10-26 11:44
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +250 $110 54¢ $135 +$24 10-22 14:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +312 $201 41¢ $128 -$73 09-22 18:09
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +156 $83 78¢ $121 +$38 09-07 20:11
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +125 $105 92¢ $114 +$9 08-30 21:12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +155 $120 74¢ $114 -$6 10-20 16:41
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +121 $106 94¢ $114 +$8 09-15 08:10
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? No +123 $103 92¢ $113 +$11 09-09 13:42
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? Yes +124 $107 88¢ $108 +$2 08-30 06:07
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +117 $89 92¢ $107 +$18 08-21 14:52
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +156 $81 66¢ $102 +$21 08-23 02:14
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No +141 $92 72¢ $102 +$10 10-25 21:26
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +124 $63 74¢ $92 +$29 08-17 07:38
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +117 $77 74¢ $87 +$10 09-15 16:56
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +125 $76 70¢ $87 +$11 09-21 16:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +146 $56 59¢ $86 +$30 09-25 16:52
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +125 $86 68¢ $86 -$1 10-10 22:09
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +155 $81 55¢ $85 +$4 10-18 08:24