Complete-Osmosis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$213

Unrealized P&L

+$107

Hit rate

64.7%

Resolved

1,436

Trades

3,407

lifetime

Volume

$23.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$595

17 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-28 11:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 200 days

Categories

Other

65% 35% -$135

Politics

18% 40% -$62

Sports

9% 41% -$136

Tech

6% 86% +$152

Crypto

2% 38% -$33

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+178	$100	75¢	$133	+$33	09-22 08:22
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+113	$53	80¢	$91	+$38	07-11 11:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+87	$41	71¢	$62	+$21	10-28 11:14
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+205	$45	22¢	$44	-$1	10-28 11:21
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+60	$33	68¢	$41	+$8	09-15 09:40
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+64	$22	58¢	$38	+$16	10-18 14:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+186	$58	20¢	$36	-$22	10-27 09:15
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+42	$18	76¢	$32	+$14	10-05 11:55
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No	+46	$26	59¢	$27	+$1	10-27 09:36
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+132	$20	20¢	$26	+$6	10-14 09:03
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+179	$24	11¢	$19	-$5	10-05 11:43
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+36	$16	44¢	$16	$0	10-28 11:04
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+26	$11	46¢	$12	+$1	10-10 09:44
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+29	$11	32¢	$9	-$2	10-10 09:39
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+18	$4	25¢	$5	+$1	10-28 11:12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+120	$4	3¢	$4	$0	09-21 11:17
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	-462	-$1	0¢	$-1	+$0	06-20 10:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$1.2K	605	604	+1	No	+$12	04-30 08:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	15	$580	345	341	+4	No	+$99	04-27 10:30
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	18	$391	457	457	+0	Yes	-$45	03-18 09:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	9	$366	240	236	+4	No	+$106	04-27 10:30
will partido popular win 32 35 seats in the 2026 castilla y len regional election	21	$307	203	203	+0	Yes	+$95	03-15 23:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	9	$303	221	221	+0	open	—	09-13 17:11
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	10	$256	172	172	+0	No	+$74	08-20 20:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	11	$250	279	279	+0	Yes	-$99	06-14 20:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	5	$241	135	134	+1	No	+$22	04-17 11:01
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	5	$207	231	28	+203	No	+$41	03-22 06:52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	7	$203	143	143	+0	No	+$77	06-15 07:45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	2	$193	106	106	+0	No	+$15	06-04 13:37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	9	$184	137	137	+0	open	—	09-13 10:58
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	11	$183	469	469	+0	No	+$77	03-22 06:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	4	$182	113	113	+0	Yes	+$32	06-18 08:04
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	10	$177	170	170	+0	open	—	09-21 10:24
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	10	$176	134	134	+0	open	—	09-13 17:11
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$172	154	154	+0	No	-$11	03-15 09:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	5	$164	85	116	-32	No	+$29	06-09 12:21
lal bil bar 2026 03 08 total 3pt5	2	$160	93	93	+0	Under	+$7	03-07 20:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	4	$160	88	88	+0	No	+$14	05-22 16:25
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	10	$159	122	122	+0	No	+$69	03-30 15:40
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	5	$145	88	88	+0	Yes	+$27	05-21 21:02
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	3	$144	42	116	-74	No	+$8	06-06 10:06
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	5	$143	97	97	+0	open	—	09-13 17:11
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$135	85	84	+0	open	—	10-27 09:11
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	5	$133	82	82	+0	No	+$3	03-09 16:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$132	100	144	-44	Yes	-$22	06-15 08:17
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	2	$130	84	84	+0	open	—	07-24 07:52
iran full airspace closure by august 15	5	$128	86	86	+0	No	+$34	08-10 08:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 11:21:59	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0x832f27…
10-28 11:14:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xc74458…
10-28 11:12:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x022a86…
10-28 11:04:08	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x40567c…
10-28 11:03:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	30¢	$15	0xe8ed57…
10-28 11:02:50	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0xd81dbe…
10-27 09:36:54	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xeaee9a…
10-27 09:36:27	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No	BUY	39	57¢	$22	0x6981ca…
10-27 09:17:09	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x45d192…
10-27 09:15:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0x4cef80…
10-27 09:14:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xe42902…
10-27 09:12:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	46¢	$33	0xee2710…
10-27 09:11:41	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	9¢	$4	0x365c2c…
10-27 09:11:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	89¢	$75	0xfeb1ac…
10-25 12:05:20	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	6¢	$3	0x442ad7…
10-23 12:19:45	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0x7fc0c7…
10-21 11:42:53	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x1bf166…
10-19 10:36:17	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	71¢	$60	0xc6469b…
10-19 10:24:21	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	39¢	$12	0xf4f2b4…
10-19 10:21:38	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0x544252…
10-19 10:21:24	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	19¢	$14	0x551e20…
10-19 10:19:33	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x1480de…
10-18 14:45:12	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x3d38cc…
10-18 14:44:15	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0xe9c03f…
10-18 14:43:53	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	171	13¢	$22	0xf21622…
10-18 14:43:12	Will Zendaya be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$1	0xe3255e…
10-18 14:43:08	Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	234	1¢	$2	0xf8687b…
10-14 09:03:14	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x3dd116…
10-14 08:46:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0xb8d624…
10-14 08:45:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0xd56b96…
10-14 08:41:32	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	SELL	47	8¢	$4	0x780749…
10-14 08:41:26	Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0x4a8a58…
10-13 15:25:08	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x0e0f20…
10-12 09:43:07	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xae834a…
10-12 09:18:22	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf437ae…
10-10 09:48:04	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9c9474…
10-10 09:44:07	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0xdd39e6…
10-10 09:39:58	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	38¢	$11	0xf7a45c…
10-10 09:38:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x511dc9…
10-10 09:36:00	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x280585…
10-10 09:35:13	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x8a6017…
10-10 09:35:03	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x9b3222…
10-10 09:34:18	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x55b6c9…
10-10 09:34:00	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x6a2615…
10-10 09:33:49	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xaa9d35…
10-10 09:33:27	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x3ecbae…
10-09 13:19:27	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x0c094b…
10-09 13:17:55	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x80b9a8…
10-09 13:17:31	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x4c690f…
10-09 13:16:37	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	12¢	$7	0xe180dc…
10-09 13:15:19	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xac5bdc…
10-09 13:14:46	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	55¢	$63	0xb68468…
10-07 12:43:31	Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic + OpenAI	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0xecc3b6…
10-07 12:43:02	Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic + OpenAI	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x301d62…
10-06 22:30:45	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x1af19a…
10-05 11:59:28	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6d8547…
10-05 11:59:13	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	24	25¢	$6	0x3cb718…
10-05 11:57:19	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0xc92374…
10-05 11:55:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x11afbe…
10-05 11:55:22	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	43¢	$18	0x896b21…
10-05 11:53:10	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x681556…
10-05 11:52:44	Will Trump say "Egg" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xcab0ec…
10-05 11:52:28	Will Trump say "Right to Fix" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x1ad5e1…
10-05 11:49:55	Will Trump say "Tax" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x0a673c…
10-05 11:48:56	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x68030e…
10-05 11:48:26	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd892b7…
10-05 11:45:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	77¢	$49	0xf4a435…
10-05 11:44:19	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb74c4a…
10-05 11:43:38	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x326d91…
10-05 11:42:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	43	84¢	$36	0x352194…
10-05 11:39:47	Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9f9e2d…
10-05 11:39:22	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0x7906bf…
10-04 16:46:49	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x7d69cb…
10-04 16:29:35	Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0xbd8ae7…
10-04 16:27:59	Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic + OpenAI	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x72128a…
10-04 16:26:50	Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xdca77b…
10-04 16:25:56	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x70dbc9…
10-04 16:25:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0xecc450…
10-04 16:24:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	72	82¢	$59	0x93bce4…
10-02 12:14:02	China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xd5a507…
10-02 12:12:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xed143b…
10-02 12:11:51	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xe1830f…
10-02 12:10:20	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0xa09dff…
10-02 12:10:03	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	39¢	$11	0xb1397a…
10-02 12:09:48	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x54c14f…
10-02 12:08:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xcb2d08…
10-02 12:04:54	Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x67efe5…
10-02 12:04:02	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Yes	SELL	49	44¢	$21	0x4bb715…
10-02 12:03:32	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	72¢	$17	0x51a5f0…
09-30 09:04:03	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x8008b9…
09-30 09:03:14	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0xaf29d0…
09-30 09:02:35	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	22¢	$15	0x17a342…
09-30 09:02:11	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	12¢	$16	0x564b3f…
09-30 09:01:03	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x50121c…
09-30 09:00:44	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x4dd653…
09-30 08:59:57	Will "Verity" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xb179ee…
09-30 08:58:44	Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	No	SELL	47	10¢	$5	0x3c15fa…
09-30 08:58:26	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xc86963…
09-30 08:58:12	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x267845…
09-30 08:57:47	Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	33	21¢	$7	0x8e28cb…