Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$281

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

27.8%

Resolved

Trades

482

lifetime

Volume

$4.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-06

last 10-28 22:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

74% 19% -$208

Politics

18% 10% -$72

Tech

4% 33% -$2

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$0

Crypto

2% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	No		+2	$0	22¢	$0	+$0	07-09 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bill Tierney win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?	8	$112	140	140	+0	Yes	+$0	09-19 01:04
Will "CONFESSIONS II - Madonna" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 18?	5	$109	60	60	+0	Yes	+$0	07-09 21:35
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026?	3	$106	60	60	+0	open	—	07-08 02:43
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	3	$97	50	50	+0	No	$0	07-16 13:36
will canvas valuation hit low 35b by december 31	2	$89	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	07-08 14:56
will betboom make a roster change before september 20260623161949704	8	$83	60	60	+0	No	-$19	07-16 13:43
exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by june 30 2027	8	$82	79	79	+0	open	—	10-28 02:33
will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	3	$77	60	60	+0	No	+$1	07-07 09:42
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	2	$74	60	60	+0	open	—	07-07 21:06
Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	4	$71	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 20:20
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	3	$67	60	60	+0	Yes	$0	07-07 18:06
Will Diana Javorčíková win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?	10	$66	80	80	+0	No	$0	10-08 13:28
Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?	3	$59	60	60	+0	Yes	-$13	07-16 13:43
over 25m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325651	2	$58	60	60	+0	Yes	-$5	07-12 11:10
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid?	4	$56	60	60	+0	Yes	-$30	07-16 12:13
will krakens valuation hit high 15b by december 31	2	$56	60	60	+0	open	—	07-15 10:57
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?	4	$55	39	39	+0	No	+$0	07-08 18:27
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026?	2	$54	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-08 07:47
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	10	$52	100	100	+0	open	—	09-09 05:08
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title?	5	$52	48	48	+0	Yes	-$2	07-12 10:35
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	2	$52	55	55	+0	Yes	+$1	07-07 16:49
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	5	$51	46	46	+0	No	+$1	07-07 16:38
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in july 20260626154217427	3	$50	36	36	+0	Yes	-$1	07-09 14:35
Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	6	$50	60	60	+0	open	—	10-28 03:44
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?	2	$50	36	36	+0	open	—	07-09 13:12
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?	4	$49	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-08 16:21
will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 2pt35b	2	$48	48	6	+42	Yes	-$43	07-13 07:27
will astralis make a roster change before september 20260623164319912	9	$47	60	60	+0	No	-$14	07-16 13:43
will ibm ibm q2 software revenue be above 8pt2b 20260707025814493	2	$46	48	48	+0	No	+$0	07-10 02:18
will mrbeast say calendar during his next youtube video 20260702154826890	3	$45	24	24	+0	No	$0	07-16 14:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:06:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x9463ee…
10-28 22:42:05	Will Vance peak at Category 3?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xb24c7a…
10-28 22:11:26	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xab0a22…
10-28 22:00:25	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x84e37c…
10-28 21:15:04	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x3dc93c…
10-28 21:14:53	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xe548d4…
10-28 17:06:11	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x40cacf…
10-28 16:48:01	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x0eb799…
10-28 15:53:08	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x7949b6…
10-28 15:24:11	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x1fd859…
10-28 14:54:37	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x53a56e…
10-28 14:46:23	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd59a75…
10-28 14:02:08	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xcca3b1…
10-28 13:34:05	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x862b21…
10-28 13:25:04	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0xe4400b…
10-28 13:13:01	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xe041a2…
10-28 13:12:44	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 29?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x3eb998…
10-28 13:08:13	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xc7e32e…
10-28 13:03:23	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x372f98…
10-28 12:32:20	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x4ab1b2…
10-28 11:03:41	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x38ce66…
10-28 09:23:22	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x4e2659…
10-28 08:36:26	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x23dac9…
10-28 07:53:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9cea9b…
10-28 07:08:19	Will Dems win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x637008…
10-28 05:58:19	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	9¢	$5	0x104615…
10-28 05:46:43	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x72373b…
10-28 04:56:32	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	38	38¢	$14	0xde58ea…
10-28 04:38:01	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xe57d40…
10-28 04:36:50	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	12	39¢	$5	0xa25e56…
10-28 04:36:20	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x588498…
10-28 04:12:26	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x13c831…
10-28 03:44:49	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xfc63f5…
10-28 02:59:05	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x39ab63…
10-28 02:33:44	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xbab07a…
10-28 02:32:48	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x86395e…
10-28 02:17:05	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 85% and 87.5%?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x93a7e9…
10-28 02:06:47	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 85% and 87.5%?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x5df8b5…
10-28 01:41:51	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xf0e934…
10-28 01:41:35	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x4b141f…
10-28 01:41:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x3abaca…
10-28 01:35:24	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x10dc1b…
10-28 01:23:38	Will Shas win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x4676fa…
10-28 01:20:12	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xcea709…
10-28 00:52:12	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x0f1d71…
10-28 00:48:53	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xbc6413…
10-28 00:28:18	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd8e43d…
10-28 00:18:57	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0x2a06d3…
10-28 00:18:50	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0xc5365a…
10-28 00:10:03	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xa5d72b…
10-27 23:34:27	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xb51fdb…
10-27 23:34:00	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x974e4b…
10-27 23:24:30	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x940197…
10-27 21:24:05	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x560955…
10-27 21:05:33	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x2c26a9…
10-27 20:29:17	Will Labcorp (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$17	0xea2d39…
10-27 20:20:14	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x13e4ee…
10-27 19:30:56	Will Labcorp (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x9a4c5d…
10-27 18:57:00	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x6d30e0…
10-27 18:56:47	Will Labcorp (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x049be5…
10-27 17:33:18	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x2c9425…
10-27 16:35:51	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb99de6…
10-27 16:31:51	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xa5b007…
10-27 15:59:56	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xd372d2…
10-27 15:59:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x6a4d09…
10-27 14:48:33	Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xe399d9…
10-27 14:36:45	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x45a69a…
10-27 14:20:00	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0x05e590…
10-27 13:48:12	Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x21127c…
10-27 13:43:27	Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x6cea7a…
10-27 12:59:44	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xaa47a2…
10-27 12:49:47	Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xdc8f51…
10-27 11:09:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x871ba1…
10-27 10:55:03	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xc506c3…
10-27 10:44:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xc1528d…
10-27 10:23:03	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2892f0…
10-27 09:58:27	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x907d0a…
10-27 08:49:33	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xccbff4…
10-27 08:49:32	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0xafb56d…
10-27 08:37:17	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x2cc54c…
10-27 02:05:32	Will Derek Giberson win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xe57e61…
10-27 00:21:56	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x843c2c…
10-26 23:42:12	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	36	33¢	$12	0x8a2470…
10-26 23:38:00	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x3d401c…
10-26 23:18:50	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x95d08e…
10-26 22:33:51	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x6c1b69…
10-26 22:06:33	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x00eb7e…
10-26 21:55:15	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xed7680…
10-26 21:52:02	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	36	38¢	$14	0x3d4c12…
10-26 21:13:32	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x355ad1…
10-26 20:22:02	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xf1dc16…
10-26 19:01:44	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xf1db3e…
10-26 17:46:33	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0xd63ffe…
10-26 17:46:26	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x6c454d…
10-26 17:38:05	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xc6fc69…
10-26 16:13:26	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xaa3092…
10-25 15:51:45	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xc86223…
10-25 02:31:05	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x06fc14…
10-25 02:30:53	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x3e73c5…
10-25 02:23:47	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xde2745…