Elaborate-Hatchet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$909

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.8%

Resolved

Trades

10,551

lifetime

Volume

$1.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-12 06:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

78% 80% $-909

Other

17% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 511 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	306	$54.5K	33,166	33,056	+111	open	—	06-17 11:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	414	$51.0K	36,334	36,859	-526	open	—	06-17 04:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	437	$49.8K	32,297	30,695	+1,602	open	—	06-01 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	249	$40.7K	25,266	24,630	+636	open	—	07-06 02:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	224	$40.0K	26,143	22,944	+3,200	open	—	08-11 21:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	288	$26.6K	20,587	20,900	-313	open	—	06-17 02:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	191	$24.0K	16,286	16,086	+200	open	—	07-06 02:39
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	143	$22.4K	13,787	14,186	-399	open	—	06-12 05:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	145	$18.8K	11,520	10,633	+887	open	—	05-26 13:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	220	$17.2K	14,172	14,515	-343	open	—	07-12 06:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	155	$16.4K	8,734	10,606	-1,872	open	—	06-05 18:23
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	178	$14.8K	8,894	8,873	+22	open	—	06-21 03:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	206	$14.3K	11,362	11,562	-200	open	—	06-19 20:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	75	$13.4K	7,655	7,655	+0	open	—	06-13 05:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	178	$12.8K	17,266	17,759	-494	open	—	06-15 14:13
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	80	$12.3K	8,005	6,400	+1,605	open	—	08-10 09:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	204	$11.4K	18,993	17,675	+1,317	open	—	08-12 02:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	139	$11.0K	6,806	6,806	+0	No	+$154	05-08 15:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	148	$10.6K	6,320	7,873	-1,553	open	—	06-01 03:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	128	$10.5K	7,004	6,835	+169	open	—	06-01 04:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	131	$10.1K	6,191	5,585	+605	open	—	05-12 21:20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	97	$9.6K	6,613	5,745	+869	open	—	05-23 06:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	102	$9.6K	6,076	6,066	+10	open	—	06-05 21:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	231	$9.6K	8,503	8,007	+496	open	—	06-15 19:01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	129	$9.5K	8,226	6,699	+1,528	open	—	06-14 14:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	102	$9.5K	5,769	6,077	-308	open	—	05-31 01:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	142	$9.5K	7,138	6,719	+418	open	—	05-22 12:35
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	101	$8.8K	5,444	5,710	-266	open	—	06-13 10:34
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	88	$8.6K	4,969	4,705	+264	open	—	05-11 01:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	61	$8.2K	5,029	4,400	+629	open	—	06-01 04:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 08:25:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	20¢	$80	0xe20aeb…
08-12 06:13:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x0d23a2…
08-12 05:11:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x51ae94…
08-12 02:30:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x902aa3…
08-12 02:12:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	No	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0xda0087…
08-12 02:08:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xfe3ffa…
08-12 01:34:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x0b2009…
08-12 00:20:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x88306e…
08-11 22:13:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0x29aa0e…
08-11 21:53:58	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x13a51c…
08-11 21:53:54	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x072cf3…
08-11 21:53:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x7b4f82…
08-11 21:53:51	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0xb79672…
08-11 21:48:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5461b9…
08-11 21:09:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	400	82¢	$328	0xcedf10…
08-11 21:03:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x75a1cd…
08-11 20:52:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	110	71¢	$78	0x53562f…
08-11 20:50:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x31ecdb…
08-11 20:31:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x03772a…
08-11 20:01:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	400	51¢	$204	0x78b9d5…
08-11 19:22:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	186	97¢	$181	0xf5de77…
08-11 19:22:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	14	97¢	$13	0x4a2efb…
08-11 19:22:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xc795e0…
08-11 13:15:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xe7499a…
08-11 11:07:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x5e7360…
08-11 11:04:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xa8d24b…
08-11 10:59:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xd861be…
08-11 09:12:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x30b16b…
08-11 03:36:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x8ed7c9…
08-11 02:10:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x869248…
08-11 02:09:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xae2323…
08-10 23:11:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x1f95a2…
08-10 21:16:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x1009dc…
08-10 19:30:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xa1e11f…
08-10 18:55:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0xfdf8ff…
08-10 16:21:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	334	96¢	$321	0x89b62e…
08-10 16:09:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xed5e41…
08-10 16:08:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	400	86¢	$344	0xebf45d…
08-10 16:02:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x657ec4…
08-10 16:02:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8b4f60…
08-10 16:02:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x6d7046…
08-10 16:02:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2b2fe3…
08-10 16:01:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	173	95¢	$165	0x64c8e1…
08-10 16:01:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x660c21…
08-10 15:58:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x0cd99c…
08-10 15:50:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x500c7f…
08-10 15:48:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xa22d96…
08-10 15:46:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0xb0cc2a…
08-10 15:03:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x8d6a25…
08-10 14:38:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xee6756…
08-10 14:38:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xde72e1…
08-10 14:28:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	34	81¢	$28	0x1e02c2…
08-10 14:02:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x52ed18…
08-10 13:54:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x023b52…
08-10 12:49:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xf78282…
08-10 12:46:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	66	81¢	$53	0xfdda80…
08-10 11:53:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0xacbb5a…
08-10 09:05:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xf2564f…
08-10 08:20:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	91	92¢	$84	0xa94ab5…
08-10 07:55:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	109	92¢	$100	0x5ed8a7…
08-10 02:51:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	400	91¢	$364	0x2a855c…
08-10 02:49:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0xd90e28…
08-10 01:23:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x5515bc…
08-10 01:01:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	383	90¢	$345	0x2b4faa…
08-10 00:53:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0xc73852…
08-10 00:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x9bd33b…
08-09 23:39:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x0d1349…
08-09 22:51:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x357e87…
08-09 22:41:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x13327e…
08-09 22:38:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0x342c23…
08-09 22:30:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x382f3b…
08-09 22:23:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xe42376…
08-09 22:16:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x48d0de…
08-09 22:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xfbc109…
08-09 21:34:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x40c19a…
08-09 21:09:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	185	90¢	$167	0x35a20d…
08-09 21:08:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0xbae67f…
08-09 21:08:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	215	90¢	$193	0x426d18…
08-09 21:08:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0x3f71f1…
08-09 20:43:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x52c421…
08-09 20:39:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	91¢	$364	0x1652b7…
08-09 20:38:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0xb1fc76…
08-09 20:37:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xc31b7c…
08-09 20:33:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x80fbce…
08-09 20:31:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x3be5cb…
08-09 18:47:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x10b36e…
08-09 18:31:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	352	85¢	$300	0x843b5b…
08-09 18:28:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xd00c84…
08-09 18:07:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	48	85¢	$40	0x3d4908…
08-09 17:56:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0xbe95ab…
08-09 17:49:54	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xdef0d3…
08-09 17:09:00	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	400	70¢	$280	0xc4f396…
08-09 16:59:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xa0401c…
08-09 16:02:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x341219…
08-09 15:37:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0x36fdda…
08-09 15:03:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x382ee1…
08-09 14:56:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0x544667…
08-09 14:55:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	397	45¢	$179	0x10681b…
08-09 14:44:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x017cea…
08-09 14:42:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xe6b7fd…