Composed-Embellishment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$327

Hit rate

82.2%

Resolved

215

Trades

2,708

lifetime

Volume

$731.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$270

Open exposure

$5.67K

29 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-27 20:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Politics

83% 56% +$15,161

Other

14% 62% +$1,745

Tech

3% 52% +$548

Crypto

0% 25% -$2,636

Sports

0% 0% -$83

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (29) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+2,700	$2,188	97¢	$2.6K	+$431	10-10 22:24
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	+620	$526	89¢	$552	+$26	10-27 14:58
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	+400	$322	89¢	$356	+$34	10-11 19:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	+400	$256	77¢	$308	+$52	10-08 21:39
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	+10,000	$1,100	3¢	$260	-$840	07-06 14:24
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+264	$230	90¢	$239	+$9	09-20 17:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+240	$202	94¢	$226	+$24	09-03 04:59
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	No	+200	$166	84¢	$169	+$3	07-29 22:55
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	+179	$100	88¢	$156	+$56	06-28 16:11
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+257	$132	59¢	$151	+$19	10-04 22:58
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	+146	$100	88¢	$128	+$28	05-03 13:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+200	$140	64¢	$128	-$12	10-19 21:15
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+100	$40	80¢	$80	+$40	09-20 10:26
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+400	$68	14¢	$58	-$10	09-02 19:26
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	+65	$37	88¢	$57	+$20	08-24 08:53
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+314	$63	17¢	$53	-$10	07-16 09:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+100	$43	39¢	$39	-$4	10-23 10:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+67	$20	44¢	$30	+$10	09-03 01:30
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	+100	$36	20¢	$19	-$16	07-22 13:37
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	+289	$83	5¢	$13	-$70	06-05 12:59
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	+50	$20	18¢	$9	-$11	09-15 19:08
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	+101	$8	8¢	$8	+$0	10-19 04:41
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+100	$71	4¢	$4	-$67	05-22 01:44
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	+52	$5	6¢	$3	-$2	09-05 06:32
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	+20	$7	14¢	$3	-$5	07-30 21:37
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+129	$5	2¢	$3	-$2	10-06 15:45
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$7	18¢	$2	-$6	10-20 00:03
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+205	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	09-10 17:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+0	$22	6¢	$0	-$22	10-19 21:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	71	$54.9K	49,068	43,639	+5,430	Yes	+$10,527	04-07 23:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	23	$50.6K	62,453	62,453	+0	No	-$750	03-28 02:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	76	$40.1K	51,224	51,224	+0	Yes	+$838	04-05 01:01
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	21	$38.0K	20,702	21,573	-872	No	+$2,839	04-01 00:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$34.3K	17,843	17,843	+0	No	+$586	03-20 12:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	9	$31.1K	16,326	16,326	+0	No	+$1,058	03-13 18:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	43	$30.5K	19,071	19,071	+0	Yes	+$3,503	03-01 22:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$28.8K	15,071	15,071	+0	Yes	+$1,298	04-17 01:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	35	$23.0K	42,357	41,714	+643	No	+$72	04-19 13:44
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	113	$21.5K	20,480	20,338	+142	Yes	+$1,342	02-28 06:44
iran strike on us military by february 28	13	$20.8K	12,029	9,022	+3,007	Yes	+$29	02-28 18:24
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	39	$19.9K	31,094	29,108	+1,986	No	-$212	01-14 13:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	22	$19.2K	45,850	45,850	+0	No	+$422	01-12 02:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	18	$17.9K	16,585	4,673	+11,912	Yes	+$872	02-28 06:53
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	174	$16.2K	14,768	13,668	+1,100	Yes	+$3,751	02-28 06:50
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	28	$15.5K	16,285	0	+16,285	No	+$771	03-13 18:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	13	$14.7K	8,736	8,736	+0	No	+$67	04-20 14:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$13.5K	7,738	7,738	+0	No	+$673	05-29 18:48
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	21	$11.2K	10,159	1,400	+8,759	No	+$287	03-05 19:46
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	30	$10.7K	13,566	13,566	+0	Yes	-$10,314	04-03 18:02
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	24	$10.2K	5,600	5,600	+0	Yes	+$199	09-02 23:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$10.0K	6,400	6,400	+0	No	+$1,568	06-08 08:43
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	46	$10.0K	6,698	6,698	+0	No	+$413	04-15 22:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	18	$9.0K	5,094	5,094	+0	Yes	+$345	03-21 20:16
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	62	$8.0K	6,900	6,900	+0	Yes	+$25	01-28 17:55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	19	$7.8K	4,108	4,108	+0	Yes	+$330	02-28 06:46
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	33	$7.8K	20,483	20,483	+0	No	-$121	01-31 16:46
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	13	$7.2K	3,816	3,816	+0	No	+$187	02-26 14:46
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	43	$6.8K	7,045	2,294	+4,752	Yes	+$1,179	05-12 08:31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	10	$6.7K	3,489	3,489	+0	No	+$237	06-22 20:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:15:36	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x86d2b2…
10-27 20:15:36	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x44dfce…
10-27 20:15:35	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x65c236…
10-27 20:15:33	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	108	60¢	$65	0x26789c…
10-27 20:06:20	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	150	26¢	$39	0xe05f69…
10-27 20:05:00	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xb21349…
10-27 20:04:35	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	388	60¢	$233	0xb77132…
10-27 14:58:51	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0x636e88…
10-27 14:33:09	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	76	84¢	$64	0x150f4c…
10-27 14:04:44	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0xac9b6a…
10-27 13:55:29	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	150	79¢	$118	0xc747f7…
10-27 09:37:50	Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x522967…
10-23 10:22:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x9b98de…
10-23 08:24:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x8dd216…
10-23 08:23:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0x25ef7b…
10-23 08:23:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x3a87ce…
10-23 07:53:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	43¢	$38	0xb772db…
10-20 01:56:57	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x3b3f28…
10-20 00:03:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x4a5c8c…
10-19 23:09:08	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x38cf8b…
10-19 23:02:17	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x8934cc…
10-19 21:26:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	84	15¢	$13	0x0611be…
10-19 21:21:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	47	15¢	$7	0x6fcde8…
10-19 21:20:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x36b863…
10-19 21:15:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0xbe54e7…
10-19 20:54:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	137	14¢	$19	0x16ad2c…
10-19 04:41:05	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x3c15a6…
10-19 02:42:47	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	8¢	$6	0x93d355…
10-13 18:13:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x002247…
10-13 17:20:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	60¢	$51	0x46cf06…
10-13 17:19:40	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x91aa63…
10-13 05:30:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,600	4¢	$344	0x2ca82a…
10-12 08:58:48	Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x931dd2…
10-11 19:45:10	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xcedf33…
10-11 18:51:54	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	300	34¢	$102	0x7fb026…
10-10 22:29:43	Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0xe872da…
10-10 22:24:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	87¢	$1,740	0xebd745…
10-10 11:33:16	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	18¢	$4	0xed7e73…
10-10 11:33:15	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xa4f162…
10-09 21:58:35	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	18¢	$5	0x51566d…
10-08 21:39:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x38a75c…
10-08 21:07:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0xf58f6a…
10-08 20:41:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	87	64¢	$56	0x56e77e…
10-06 15:45:27	Plague pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	4¢	$5	0xd34b04…
10-04 22:58:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	60	54¢	$32	0x5155ea…
10-03 22:32:11	Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	64	15¢	$10	0xb9623c…
10-02 18:42:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xb948e0…
09-26 15:36:05	Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	587	15¢	$88	0x41a9a0…
09-26 15:30:53	Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x2c9f28…
09-26 15:30:15	Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,500	14¢	$350	0x1cea03…
09-24 08:26:35	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	99	89¢	$88	0xf88de6…
09-24 08:26:26	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x7a43ee…
09-20 17:09:49	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x360900…
09-20 11:47:45	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xae8c06…
09-20 11:27:49	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0x8017d9…
09-20 10:57:49	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x765480…
09-20 10:26:55	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x596a13…
09-20 10:26:12	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x0d4f61…
09-20 00:33:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xd54e15…
09-20 00:33:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xdf5c9d…
09-20 00:09:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	158	14¢	$22	0xe823bf…
09-20 00:09:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x8660e0…
09-20 00:09:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xca844d…
09-20 00:06:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	38	14¢	$5	0xa4c7ec…
09-18 04:32:37	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	29	60¢	$18	0xa085ae…
09-17 07:13:03	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x7fa7d1…
09-16 16:31:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x27134c…
09-16 15:24:00	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x86ecd7…
09-16 15:21:06	Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x44b7eb…
09-16 14:50:42	Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xf2ce12…
09-16 04:49:01	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x4ca1cd…
09-16 04:36:18	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x3e5213…
09-15 19:08:19	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x480230…
09-15 07:19:57	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x8d1c72…
09-15 07:19:30	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xcda312…
09-14 18:29:21	Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xec8cb5…
09-14 18:21:27	Will AI solve Legendre's conjecture in 2026?	No	BUY	533	75¢	$400	0xb6d8fc…
09-14 09:41:22	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xc9ec24…
09-14 09:39:57	Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc3dc27…
09-13 20:28:55	Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xfa50f4…
09-13 20:27:19	Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xe8eb9c…
09-13 10:42:24	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0x80f685…
09-12 23:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf44675…
09-10 17:17:06	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$1	0x221ce8…
09-09 21:41:00	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x7e35a9…
09-09 20:21:15	Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0xd25b33…
09-06 16:53:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	400	75¢	$300	0x544c1b…
09-06 14:38:52	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0x100249…
09-06 13:25:34	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x10142c…
09-06 11:06:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	52	49¢	$26	0x2170eb…
09-06 11:03:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	64¢	$384	0x00e106…
09-05 21:33:00	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xd33daa…
09-05 06:32:42	will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x25a55b…
09-04 21:35:30	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0xf8d53a…
09-03 14:39:58	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	46	76¢	$35	0x5c9415…
09-03 13:33:30	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0xaeed15…
09-03 04:59:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	215	84¢	$181	0xccc238…
09-03 03:14:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x01c1bf…
09-03 01:30:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xe2d080…
09-03 01:29:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x259773…