Composed-Embellishment 0xa4bc3b…78026c
whale hot 13W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$14.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$401
Hit rate
82.2%
Resolved
215
Trades
2,701
lifetime
Volume
$731.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$271
Open exposure
$5.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-27 14:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 113 days
Categories
Politics
83% 56% +$15,161
Other
14% 62% +$1,745
Tech
3% 52% +$548
Crypto
0% 25% -$2,636
Sports
0% 0% -$83
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +2,700 $2,188 96¢ $2.6K +$418 10-10 22:24
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? No — +620 $526 86¢ $536 +$10 10-27 14:58
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +400 $322 88¢ $354 +$32 10-11 19:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +400 $256 78¢ $310 +$54 10-08 21:39
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 Yes +10,000 $1,100 3¢ $265 -$835 07-06 14:24
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +264 $230 91¢ $240 +$10 09-20 17:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +240 $202 94¢ $226 +$24 09-03 04:59
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223 No +200 $166 84¢ $169 +$3 07-29 22:55
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +179 $100 86¢ $154 +$54 06-28 16:11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +200 $140 68¢ $136 -$4 10-19 21:15
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +146 $100 88¢ $128 +$28 05-03 13:16
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +150 $118 76¢ $115 -$4 10-27 13:55
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +257 $132 35¢ $89 -$42 10-04 22:58
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +100 $40 82¢ $82 +$42 09-20 10:26
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +400 $68 14¢ $58 -$10 09-02 19:26
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No +65 $37 87¢ $57 +$20 08-24 08:53
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +314 $63 18¢ $55 -$8 07-16 09:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +100 $43 42¢ $42 $0 10-23 10:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +67 $20 44¢ $29 +$9 09-03 01:30
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 Yes +100 $36 22¢ $21 -$14 07-22 13:37
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes +289 $83 5¢ $13 -$70 06-05 12:59
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes +101 $8 9¢ $9 +$1 10-19 04:41
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +50 $20 16¢ $8 -$12 09-15 19:08
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +10 $7 35¢ $3 -$4 10-20 00:03
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +100 $71 3¢ $3 -$68 05-22 01:44
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980 Yes +52 $5 5¢ $3 -$3 09-05 06:32
Plague pandemic in 2026? Yes +129 $5 2¢ $3 -$2 10-06 15:45
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 Yes +20 $7 12¢ $2 -$5 07-30 21:37
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +205 $2 0¢ $0 -$2 09-10 17:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +0 $22 6¢ $0 -$22 10-19 21:26