Composed-Embellishment 0xa4bc3b…78026c
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$930
Unrealized P&L
-$274
Hit rate
96.3%
Resolved
5
Trades
2,277
lifetime
Volume
$699.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$307
Open exposure
$7.58K
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-18 14:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
84% 33% $-258
Other
14% 100% +$1,188
Tech
2% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
74 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,132 $4,615 88¢ $4.5K $-125 07-14 19:03
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes +1,352 $972 71¢ $960 $-12 07-12 10:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +611 $568 99¢ $604 +$36 07-11 22:37
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,300 $837 8¢ $535 $-301 07-02 13:23
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No +200 $195 99¢ $197 +$3 07-21 14:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +400 $148 46¢ $182 +$34 07-12 17:35
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +700 $121 26¢ $178 +$57 07-13 12:55
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Yes +314 $88 41¢ $129 +$41 07-15 14:18
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? Up +100 $85 80¢ $80 $-6 06-24 13:55
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $37 38¢ $75 +$38 07-16 09:34
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No +110 $84 68¢ $75 $-9 07-13 23:25
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +34 $30 88¢ $30 $-0 06-27 13:58
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes +200 $58 12¢ $25 $-33 06-05 12:59
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? Yes -197 $-22 7¢ $-13 +$9 06-06 00:14
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Yes +78 $10 6¢ $5 $-5 06-26 21:25