Composed-Embellishment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$930

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,314

lifetime

Volume

$700.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$303

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-10 06:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

84% 33% $-258

Other

14% 100% +$1,188

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	71	$54.9K	49,068	43,639	+5,430	open	—	04-07 23:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	23	$50.6K	62,453	62,453	+0	open	—	03-28 02:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	76	$40.1K	51,224	51,224	+0	open	—	04-05 01:01
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	21	$38.0K	20,702	21,573	-872	open	—	04-01 00:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$34.3K	17,843	17,843	+0	open	—	03-20 12:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	9	$31.1K	16,326	16,326	+0	open	—	03-13 18:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	43	$30.5K	19,071	19,071	+0	open	—	03-01 22:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$28.8K	15,071	15,071	+0	open	—	04-17 01:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	35	$23.0K	42,357	41,714	+643	open	—	04-19 13:44
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	113	$21.5K	20,480	20,338	+142	open	—	02-28 06:44
iran strike on us military by february 28	13	$20.8K	12,029	9,022	+3,007	open	—	02-28 18:24
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	39	$19.9K	31,094	29,108	+1,986	open	—	01-14 13:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	22	$19.2K	45,850	45,850	+0	open	—	01-12 02:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	18	$17.9K	16,585	4,673	+11,912	open	—	02-28 06:53
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	174	$16.2K	14,768	13,668	+1,100	open	—	02-28 06:50
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	28	$15.5K	16,285	0	+16,285	open	—	03-13 18:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	13	$14.7K	8,736	8,736	+0	open	—	04-20 14:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$13.5K	7,738	7,738	+0	open	—	05-29 18:48
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	21	$11.2K	10,159	1,400	+8,759	open	—	03-05 19:46
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	30	$10.7K	13,566	13,566	+0	open	—	04-03 18:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$10.0K	6,400	6,400	+0	open	—	06-08 08:43
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	46	$10.0K	6,698	6,698	+0	open	—	04-15 22:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	18	$9.0K	5,094	5,094	+0	open	—	03-21 20:16
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	62	$8.0K	6,900	6,900	+0	open	—	01-28 17:55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	19	$7.8K	4,108	4,108	+0	open	—	02-28 06:46
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	33	$7.8K	20,483	20,483	+0	open	—	01-31 16:46
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	13	$7.2K	3,816	3,816	+0	open	—	02-26 14:46
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	43	$6.8K	7,045	2,294	+4,752	Yes	+$1,179	05-12 08:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$6.4K	4,821	4,821	+0	open	—	04-07 22:45
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	20	$6.3K	3,619	3,619	+0	open	—	04-27 18:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 06:53:06	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by december 31	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x0a02e1…
08-09 17:30:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	120	21¢	$25	0x825587…
08-09 12:25:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	80	20¢	$16	0x952548…
08-06 20:28:03	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x4b96cb…
08-06 20:27:35	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xd38647…
08-06 20:18:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0x49b2de…
08-06 15:26:03	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x2048da…
08-05 17:10:53	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	5¢	$10	0x7eb166…
08-05 05:28:45	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	23	38¢	$9	0x1b7a94…
08-01 20:43:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xa7eef5…
08-01 20:39:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x61a7bc…
08-01 18:44:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xfb2c13…
08-01 18:41:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xb553ba…
08-01 11:48:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x9af27d…
07-31 23:33:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	700	22¢	$154	0xe6bcb3…
07-31 23:08:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x10892a…
07-30 21:37:12	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x175ed2…
07-30 21:35:59	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x1b57d9…
07-30 21:16:59	will israel election happen as scheduled 20260720204824362	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x6bbc11…
07-29 22:55:00	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xbad17c…
07-25 00:16:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x114009…
07-24 19:49:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	98	13¢	$13	0x8b3deb…
07-24 19:44:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xe6076c…
07-24 19:44:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x56cccf…
07-24 19:42:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	270	1¢	$4	0x29c074…
07-24 10:21:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0x26e45f…
07-24 09:37:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x95a20f…
07-23 23:20:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x41534f…
07-23 23:13:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	170	11¢	$19	0xff689e…
07-23 23:13:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xe5d881…
07-23 23:10:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	32	13¢	$4	0x0b7750…
07-23 22:58:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0x2a1b5c…
07-23 22:56:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	300	13¢	$39	0xa8097a…
07-22 13:37:34	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x796977…
07-22 11:27:55	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x345f09…
07-21 14:29:30	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd75768…
07-18 14:13:21	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	Yes	BUY	78	36¢	$28	0x3fa10c…
07-17 02:14:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x6ce153…
07-17 01:52:36	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x8c6f9b…
07-16 21:29:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	235	20¢	$47	0x87425a…
07-16 20:56:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	155	40¢	$62	0x0f3400…
07-16 20:39:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	86	20¢	$17	0xe8fdb0…
07-16 20:30:26	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x65bb06…
07-16 20:27:56	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	165	20¢	$33	0x4094a8…
07-16 20:15:56	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	140	36¢	$50	0x1def7d…
07-16 20:14:43	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	240	20¢	$48	0x8b3731…
07-16 20:14:28	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0xbd7a11…
07-16 20:14:20	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0x6f425b…
07-16 20:13:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	60	36¢	$21	0x6542d3…
07-16 20:13:10	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x620f3d…
07-16 17:48:22	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	61	42¢	$26	0xb720ee…
07-16 17:36:43	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	39	42¢	$16	0xfaa213…
07-16 16:40:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0x6503e5…
07-16 16:38:56	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0x957d43…
07-16 16:38:29	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	No	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x6ef6c5…
07-16 12:41:32	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x71a126…
07-16 09:34:47	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	60¢	$15	0x9a8268…
07-16 09:26:19	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x796ade…
07-16 09:20:32	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xc72513…
07-16 08:43:38	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0x6991e7…
07-16 08:24:28	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 20 2026 20260714195149522	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x63dd99…
07-16 07:51:13	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	60¢	$45	0x5dd12a…
07-16 07:35:32	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xe75df3…
07-16 07:19:37	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x1a204f…
07-15 22:54:28	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$5	0x54773c…
07-15 22:29:40	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0x2ba4f6…
07-15 21:59:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x94dad0…
07-15 21:27:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	Yes	BUY	110	70¢	$77	0x15da66…
07-15 20:33:01	israeli parliament dissolved by july 17 20260713154943505	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x6e22ee…
07-15 19:58:32	will clavicular kiss the western wall in 2026 20260709144445859	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa418e2…
07-15 14:18:11	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xcffb8a…
07-15 13:32:44	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x264fac…
07-15 12:30:58	will netanyahu talk to joseph aoun by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xee66d3…
07-15 12:28:34	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x60f81e…
07-15 04:22:17	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	292	42¢	$123	0x39e96c…
07-14 20:52:07	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xd38a1e…
07-14 19:03:02	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	91¢	$171	0xa7ff80…
07-14 19:02:59	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0xd3355b…
07-14 19:02:58	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,222	91¢	$2,022	0x860c69…
07-14 18:49:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x41c3b5…
07-14 14:02:55	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0xf05baa…
07-14 11:06:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	1,406	99¢	$1,392	0x5c3bff…
07-14 10:40:19	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb4bfef…
07-14 10:27:02	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	279	99¢	$277	0x8f4d07…
07-14 08:27:02	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x6389a6…
07-14 08:27:02	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	70	90¢	$63	0x26befa…
07-14 06:41:46	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	91¢	$130	0xc8743d…
07-14 04:16:16	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x076345…
07-13 23:25:34	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	BUY	98	76¢	$74	0x391856…
07-13 22:10:20	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	186	97¢	$180	0x299fdd…
07-13 20:50:40	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x76c699…
07-13 19:43:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	88	97¢	$85	0x71a59c…
07-13 19:43:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x26bd69…
07-13 19:10:20	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	500	97¢	$485	0xd3dff4…
07-13 19:02:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x53bcd8…
07-13 19:01:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfe094b…
07-13 18:45:44	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x49fa5d…
07-13 18:45:34	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x7de2af…
07-13 18:40:20	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	480	97¢	$466	0xb63ff4…
07-13 18:10:22	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	500	96¢	$481	0xdb3838…