Austere-Replacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

114 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$2.00K lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 08-25 09:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

98% 92% -$325

Crypto

2% 100% +$26

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	4	$960	500	500	+0	No	$0	04-28 22:26
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	1	$305	923	0	+923	Yes	-$305	06-15 11:30
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$42	500	500	+0	No	-$3	04-28 22:52
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$29	500	500	+0	No	-$4	04-28 18:37
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$28	500	500	+0	No	-$3	04-28 18:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-03 07:00 UTC	1	$24	50	0	+50	Up	+$26	03-03 06:56
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$23	500	500	+0	No	-$1	04-28 18:36
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	4	$15	500	500	+0	No	-$2	04-28 21:34
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 16?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-15 04:53
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on May 16?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-15 06:30
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or higher on May 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	05-29 08:32
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 16?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-15 06:29
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 82°F or higher on May 23?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-22 06:24
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on May 26?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-25 05:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-25 05:27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 10?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-09 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C or below on June 13?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-12 03:07
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-20 06:48
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-09 08:45
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on May 16?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-15 06:28
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-29 08:27
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-09 08:43
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-29 08:28
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 22?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-21 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-01 08:56
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-12 03:06
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 24?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-24 08:56
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on May 22?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-21 03:32
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-13 05:13
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	05-13 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 09:58:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0c75bb…
08-25 09:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x705493…
08-25 09:54:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc8c083…
07-24 08:56:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x27c93d…
07-24 08:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C or higher on July 25?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb3193f…
07-24 08:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on July 25?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x342e1a…
07-17 06:47:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 18?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x78310a…
07-17 06:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C or higher on July 18?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe649d6…
07-17 06:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc0b7f7…
07-13 03:04:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2fc2e4…
07-13 03:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x36ea2b…
07-13 03:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf21b99…
07-01 09:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7ed953…
07-01 08:59:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 2?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5230a3…
07-01 08:56:23	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0ebc13…
06-15 11:30:43	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	BUY	923	33¢	$305	0xae0c74…
06-12 03:07:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C or below on June 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x008f48…
06-12 03:06:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d7667…
06-12 03:04:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x21a9ff…
06-09 08:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 10?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4913cb…
06-09 08:45:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x2622f5…
06-09 08:43:46	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa65cf9…
06-09 08:42:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 9?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2b780b…
06-09 08:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeb6b09…
05-29 08:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x236ed5…
05-29 08:30:12	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x31f490…
05-29 08:28:53	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xae84f9…
05-29 08:27:29	Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x284a62…
05-25 05:33:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on May 26?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a9f14…
05-25 05:32:02	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C or below on May 26?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9818cf…
05-25 05:30:50	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0e9365…
05-25 05:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xea2980…
05-25 05:27:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb484b1…
05-25 05:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4fb2dd…
05-22 06:29:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x18c49c…
05-22 06:28:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on May 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe3c0bb…
05-22 06:27:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb521bf…
05-22 06:26:17	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xe04af9…
05-22 06:25:20	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on May 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x34e4da…
05-22 06:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 82°F or higher on May 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf92147…
05-21 03:42:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 22?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6c8ca0…
05-21 03:33:07	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on May 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x36fa07…
05-21 03:32:05	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on May 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xad4709…
05-21 03:31:08	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x79a7ec…
05-21 03:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on May 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x46015e…
05-21 03:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or below on May 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x4c4825…
05-20 06:49:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 21?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf96b6a…
05-20 06:48:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0xfebe0a…
05-20 06:46:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x421f6c…
05-15 06:30:38	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfa837a…
05-15 06:29:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4c7da3…
05-15 06:28:02	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on May 16?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x65331e…
05-15 06:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe49320…
05-15 04:53:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6279b…
05-15 04:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa08d31…
05-14 08:35:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on May 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x05e338…
05-14 08:33:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa31d2e…
05-14 08:32:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5897e9…
05-13 05:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x5ce2b1…
05-13 05:14:50	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C on May 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x347a47…
05-13 05:13:33	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x571838…
05-13 05:12:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on May 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0d6520…
05-13 05:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x01becb…
05-13 05:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xded589…
05-13 05:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x68794e…
05-13 05:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a7f40…
05-13 05:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on May 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc4b851…
05-12 03:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 12?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xed57a5…
05-12 03:04:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x12b92e…
05-12 03:02:06	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x00a610…
05-12 03:00:39	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe15b6b…
05-12 02:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on May 12?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f440d…
05-12 02:57:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4e300e…
05-12 02:55:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe1fe89…
05-12 02:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb0dfab…
05-12 02:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xb176ff…
05-12 02:51:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x449229…
05-12 02:49:55	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 12?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8acbc0…
05-12 02:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on May 12?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b1e99…
05-09 07:37:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 10?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd88fb0…
05-09 07:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C or below on May 10?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf1912f…
05-09 07:34:56	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 10?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x05f87e…
05-08 09:11:14	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 9?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c9aa3…
05-08 09:10:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x33491e…
05-08 09:09:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 9?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xca001f…
05-07 09:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on May 8?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x36e3d0…
05-07 09:25:20	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 8?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x22fda5…
05-07 09:24:07	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 8?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb61c60…
04-28 22:52:28	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	4¢	$10	0x758d8f…
04-28 22:26:54	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$288	0x52fb7b…
04-28 21:34:04	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	1¢	$3	0x419746…
04-28 19:27:48	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	244	1¢	$3	0xb013b0…
04-28 19:27:32	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	4¢	$10	0x024159…
04-28 18:38:20	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$12	0x0afec4…
04-28 18:37:58	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$12	0x6adf9b…
04-28 18:36:38	Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$11	0x277bdc…
04-28 18:35:08	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xd85414…
04-28 18:00:50	Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	382	2¢	$9	0xb1223c…
04-28 17:57:30	Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$3	0x496894…
04-28 17:52:46	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	439	2¢	$7	0x891ae7…