Realized P&L
+$13
Unrealized P&L
-$6
Hit rate
68.3%
Resolved
8
Trades
398
lifetime
Volume
$1.31K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$111
19 positions
First seen
2026-05-05
last 06-13 00:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
77% 50% +$13
Other
20%
Tech
3%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
20 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -14 $-11 73¢ $-11 +$0 06-13 00:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -11 $-10 92¢ $-10 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No -10 $-10 96¢ $-10 $-0 06-13 00:45
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -10 $-8 86¢ $-8 $-1 06-13 00:45
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -13 $-6 60¢ $-8 $-2 06-13 00:44
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No -11 $-7 72¢ $-8 $-1 06-13 00:45
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -12 $-7 60¢ $-7 +$0 06-13 00:45
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -10 $-6 70¢ $-7 $-2 06-13 00:45
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No -7 $-6 88¢ $-6 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No -7 $-6 82¢ $-6 +$0 06-13 00:45
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No -5 $-5 99¢ $-5 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No -5 $-4 97¢ $-5 $-1 06-13 00:45
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No -6 $-4 80¢ $-5 $-1 06-13 00:45
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No -4 $-3 86¢ $-3 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -4 $-3 75¢ $-3 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Yes -17 $-4 18¢ $-3 +$1 06-13 00:44
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No -3 $-3 99¢ $-3 $-0 06-13 00:45
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -6 $-2 32¢ $-2 +$0 06-13 00:45
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes -4 $-2 26¢ $-1 +$1 06-13 00:45