Assured-Gale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$694

Unrealized P&L

+$1.12K

Hit rate

81.0%

Resolved

Trades

6,426

lifetime

Volume

$1.39M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$216

Open exposure

$9.05K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 07-20 21:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

55% 40% $-4,579

Other

33% 82% +$3,683

Tech

12% 100% +$202

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+18,377	$2,551	26¢	$4.7K	+$2,135	06-25 19:25
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-15,000	$-2,250	24¢	$-3525	$-1,275	07-04 20:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	+3,221	$387	22¢	$693	+$306	06-26 19:09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+1,429	$200	11¢	$150	$-50	06-02 23:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	387	$109.7K	118,826	105,603	+13,223	open	—	04-27 10:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	10	$62.6K	36,094	29,051	+7,043	open	—	02-28 21:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	49	$54.1K	56,339	43,000	+13,339	open	—	02-28 21:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	421	$47.7K	341,413	250,413	+91,000	open	—	05-01 01:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	257	$44.3K	477,213	77,518	+399,696	open	—	05-31 06:44
will company b be accused of insider trading	3	$32.5K	18,328	18,300	+28	open	—	02-26 14:42
will axiom be accused of insider trading	4	$31.8K	20,185	20,175	+10	open	—	02-26 13:49
donald trump of truth social posts february 27 march 6 120 139	16	$27.0K	27,296	1	+27,295	open	—	03-04 02:35
will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 22	11	$26.2K	26,455	0	+26,455	open	—	03-21 18:35
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	22	$24.7K	24,899	0	+24,899	open	—	04-28 09:22
Iran leadership change by April 30?	33	$22.5K	68,764	53,788	+14,976	open	—	04-26 04:40
will khamenei tweet again by march 10	12	$21.4K	23,696	0	+23,696	open	—	03-06 14:03
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by May 5?	12	$20.7K	10,404	10,400	+4	Yes	+$101	05-04 21:35
donald trump of truth social posts february 27 march 6 100 119	2	$20.5K	20,525	0	+20,525	open	—	03-04 02:11
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	99	$20.2K	42,600	19,600	+23,000	open	—	04-22 02:06
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	10	$17.7K	58,666	10,775	+47,891	open	—	06-22 18:28
Iran leadership change by May 31?	41	$16.8K	52,305	2,393	+49,912	open	—	05-08 05:28
will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 21	10	$16.3K	16,898	0	+16,898	open	—	03-21 17:05
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 80 99	60	$15.8K	16,221	0	+16,221	open	—	03-17 08:23
donald trump of truth social posts february 27 march 6 180 199	36	$15.5K	17,449	3,201	+14,248	open	—	03-06 15:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	108	$14.2K	25,659	15,000	+10,659	open	—	05-26 03:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	31	$14.0K	12,808	11,183	+1,625	open	—	04-26 19:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	62	$12.4K	14,528	12,710	+1,818	open	—	04-26 19:33
Will Clavicular receive a Kick ban by June 1, 2026?	8	$12.2K	7,092	7,000	+92	open	—	03-27 04:47
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	44	$12.1K	11,861	2,080	+9,781	open	—	03-31 15:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	166	$11.7K	54,442	36,066	+18,377	open	—	06-25 19:25
will khamenei tweet again by march 1	4	$10.8K	12,114	0	+12,114	open	—	02-28 21:35
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by May 4?	1	$9.9K	10,046	0	+10,046	Yes	+$101	05-04 21:27
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30, 2026?	3	$9.8K	10,030	0	+10,030	open	—	04-16 22:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	24	$9.3K	21,683	11,264	+10,419	open	—	04-19 03:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 21:57:51	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,281	13¢	$427	0xdf51c4…
07-20 21:52:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	682	13¢	$89	0x43e5cd…
07-10 23:04:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0x3cc1fb…
07-04 20:21:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	140	15¢	$21	0x1d3b5e…
07-04 19:50:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x7acabc…
07-04 19:36:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0xf2b602…
07-04 19:13:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0xb2ccc9…
07-04 18:44:53	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	430	15¢	$64	0xd5406e…
07-04 18:33:23	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	275	15¢	$41	0xa77ff8…
07-04 14:21:08	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	69	15¢	$10	0x3f9161…
07-04 13:32:35	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	187	15¢	$28	0xe53292…
07-04 12:06:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0x83d526…
07-04 11:30:25	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0xe6d3a4…
07-04 11:29:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	210	15¢	$32	0x150f41…
07-04 11:27:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	390	15¢	$58	0xfc321a…
07-04 10:14:50	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xda8acb…
07-04 10:14:50	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x1361a4…
07-04 10:14:47	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	129	15¢	$19	0x2fb626…
07-04 06:17:38	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x8ffd06…
07-04 06:10:29	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	15¢	$5	0x4977bb…
07-04 04:55:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	545	15¢	$82	0xd4b43e…
07-04 04:19:47	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x905f78…
07-04 04:18:41	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x3fd607…
07-04 03:54:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xc13062…
07-04 03:33:41	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x1665ac…
07-04 03:32:14	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x60e6ea…
07-04 01:58:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xdc63d4…
07-04 01:48:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x4e6419…
07-04 01:06:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x2d1a9d…
07-04 00:20:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0xb2d84f…
07-03 22:33:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	15¢	$10	0xa621d3…
07-03 21:57:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11,688	15¢	$1,753	0x3573d3…
07-03 20:11:35	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x6a66d8…
07-03 18:42:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xffbfaa…
07-03 17:01:47	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xa623b1…
07-03 16:23:29	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x3fed18…
07-03 16:22:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0xae1f64…
07-03 14:05:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xf8992f…
07-03 14:05:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	15¢	$9	0x2a0f54…
07-03 13:14:59	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	15¢	$3	0x44033c…
07-03 13:14:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0xebcb2d…
07-03 11:04:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xfdd5a5…
07-03 09:44:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,064	74¢	$787	0x722135…
07-03 08:54:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,212	100¢	$2,205	0x90435a…
07-03 07:47:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	393	15¢	$59	0xc23b5b…
07-03 06:22:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,018	15¢	$153	0x9dea56…
07-03 06:11:11	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	15¢	$21	0x6bfcb1…
07-03 05:54:17	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0xd85494…
07-03 05:53:35	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x90a37f…
07-03 05:48:26	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd1dfe2…
07-03 05:18:41	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	15¢	$28	0x22004d…
07-03 03:26:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0xd9b70e…
07-02 23:54:11	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	15¢	$25	0x5911a8…
07-02 23:18:20	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,353	15¢	$353	0x22558f…
07-02 19:18:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	15¢	$12	0xa130f7…
07-02 18:08:07	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,992	15¢	$299	0xb56a35…
06-30 16:47:31	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$12	0x56687f…
06-30 05:07:05	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,010	1¢	$8	0x5d999e…
06-30 04:48:17	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	210	1¢	$2	0xf67c14…
06-27 00:31:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x94c2b3…
06-27 00:30:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	BUY	1,739	23¢	$400	0x6f7dcf…
06-26 22:53:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x4b7cb5…
06-26 22:52:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	254	1¢	$2	0x070e37…
06-26 22:48:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	333	1¢	$3	0xb3aea3…
06-26 22:45:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	532	1¢	$5	0xc56e78…
06-26 22:42:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	BUY	462	22¢	$100	0xb8406e…
06-26 22:41:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	102	46¢	$47	0xa9352d…
06-26 22:41:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	7,136	1¢	$64	0xadc28b…
06-26 22:40:50	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	799	19¢	$150	0x3284e9…
06-26 19:09:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xda5016…
06-26 18:56:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$19	0xda1c72…
06-26 16:31:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xd1ef33…
06-26 16:31:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xbbeff3…
06-26 16:13:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xa08f19…
06-26 16:13:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x1b83dd…
06-26 15:22:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x2c08f4…
06-26 15:22:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x99f214…
06-26 15:22:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x8e35e7…
06-26 13:45:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,172	12¢	$261	0xfb4e5b…
06-26 13:27:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xeaffc2…
06-26 07:54:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xbe4da2…
06-26 06:27:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	65	22¢	$14	0x4a4da5…
06-26 05:29:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc4c7e1…
06-26 05:29:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc63937…
06-26 05:29:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x682a43…
06-26 05:24:20	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x997e6c…
06-26 05:17:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xf9a936…
06-26 04:44:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xea7adf…
06-26 04:44:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x2ce089…
06-26 04:43:38	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,721	1¢	$41	0xc430d7…
06-26 04:43:38	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,279	2¢	$64	0x117fc3…
06-26 03:55:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	38	22¢	$8	0x5e20de…
06-26 02:56:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x648500…
06-26 02:50:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0x33c3d0…
06-26 02:32:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	31	22¢	$7	0xec0342…
06-26 01:53:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x35816e…
06-26 00:55:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0xc602bf…
06-26 00:28:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x3c285f…
06-26 00:07:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x4fcb78…
06-25 23:33:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0xacaf8d…