Alienated-Wifi — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.03K

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

42.1%

Resolved

488

Trades

8,147

lifetime

Volume

$25.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 10-16 07:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

52% 56% -$871

Other

34% 58% -$8

Crypto

9% 76% -$110

Sports

4% 52% -$44

Tech

1% 57% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 328 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	+$0	09-09 19:23
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	+$0	08-29 02:07
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	+$0	09-10 06:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$11	1¢	$0	+$11	10-01 15:15
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	+0	$0	0¢	$0	$0	09-13 16:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1,457	$10.4K	63,797	52,522	+11,275	No	-$878	03-30 11:53
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	424	$2.0K	2,170	2,172	-2	No	+$25	03-30 23:52
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	141	$1.6K	3,381	3,444	-63	No	+$21	03-29 08:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	206	$528	17,311	12,974	+4,336	No	-$84	04-02 11:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	163	$399	8,446	8,446	+0	No	+$11	09-09 16:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	68	$312	8,881	8,881	+0	No	+$2	08-25 13:08
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	100	$287	4,672	4,672	+0	No	+$13	09-12 13:24
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	110	$287	8,396	8,396	+0	No	+$17	09-09 21:24
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	97	$213	2,570	2,570	+0	No	+$5	09-13 16:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	95	$204	6,059	6,059	+0	No	+$5	09-11 00:14
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	68	$192	4,935	4,935	+0	No	+$2	09-14 11:16
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	107	$187	5,181	5,181	+0	No	+$3	10-02 13:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	68	$179	2,345	2,345	+0	open	—	09-12 10:39
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	36	$179	1,992	1,992	+0	open	—	09-13 12:26
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	69	$170	3,660	3,660	+0	open	—	09-13 22:20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	63	$144	5,058	5,058	+0	open	—	10-01 15:15
Iran leadership change by September 30?	48	$135	2,521	2,521	+0	No	$0	09-13 09:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?	63	$129	4,055	4,055	+0	No	+$1	09-13 22:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	51	$128	5,095	5,095	+0	No	+$5	08-26 13:12
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	32	$127	2,281	2,281	+0	open	—	09-10 10:05
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	69	$125	2,180	2,180	+0	No	+$2	10-02 06:42
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	42	$120	1,736	1,736	+0	open	—	10-04 09:24
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	73	$111	1,469	1,469	+0	No	-$2	09-21 15:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	27	$98	1,193	1,193	+0	No	+$12	09-09 23:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	12	$97	1,656	1,656	+0	No	+$7	09-09 18:10
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	24	$94	1,658	1,658	+0	open	—	10-03 15:48
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	24	$92	2,844	2,844	+0	No	+$10	09-11 13:45
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	61	$91	3,973	3,973	+0	No	+$4	09-13 15:09
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	61	$91	1,843	1,843	+0	No	-$10	08-27 18:44
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	36	$89	2,986	2,986	+0	open	—	09-11 08:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 07:46:25	dota2 ch1 z10 2026 10 16 game1	Zero Tenacity	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x507be6…
10-16 07:46:22	dota2 ch1 z10 2026 10 16 game1	Zero Tenacity	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x443eb5…
10-16 07:16:57	dota2 kineti xctn 2026 10 16	Team Kinetix	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xa6e22f…
10-16 06:30:15	cs2 offcho gz1 2026 10 16 game2	Ground Zero	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xbbd219…
10-16 06:16:45	lol mvk kc 2026 10 16 game4	Karmine Corp	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x90d3c4…
10-16 01:31:24	Seahawks vs. Broncos	Seahawks	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x5a6cb0…
10-16 00:12:28	LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	FURIA Esports	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0x7e34ee…
10-15 20:25:26	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-15?	No	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0x45575d…
10-15 20:07:07	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x0f933f…
10-15 09:00:20	lol we bro2 2026 10 15 game2	HANJIN BRION	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xcce5ac…
10-15 03:59:17	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Nuggets	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x3b526c…
10-15 03:58:20	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Nuggets	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x7d758d…
10-15 03:31:05	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Nuggets	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xcab73e…
10-15 02:41:52	nba nop dal 2026 10 14	Mavericks	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x7ba048…
10-15 02:40:55	nba nop dal 2026 10 14	Mavericks	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x6ef23c…
10-14 16:33:58	lol anb sly 2026 10 14	Anubis Gaming	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0xeb1df6…
10-14 16:28:39	lol anb sly 2026 10 14	Anubis Gaming	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x27b888…
10-14 15:56:06	lol anb sly 2026 10 14	Anubis Gaming	BUY	23	11¢	$3	0x345795…
10-14 14:27:48	lol c9 kc 2026 10 15	Karmine Corp	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x438878…
10-14 08:17:25	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Karmine Corp	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xd670fd…
10-14 08:16:32	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Cloud9	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0xe46f44…
10-14 07:52:13	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Cloud9	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x18c0dd…
10-05 07:40:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xe2a5d1…
10-05 07:40:52	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0xfe83cf…
10-04 17:25:26	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	375	2¢	$7	0x5fe2c3…
10-04 12:01:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	2¢	$3	0x905f04…
10-04 11:33:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$6	0x05d11a…
10-04 09:24:58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x9d9a1f…
10-04 08:29:23	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	3¢	$4	0xbb1f5f…
10-04 07:39:31	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$1	0x9dd9a5…
10-04 06:58:14	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$1	0x63b840…
10-04 06:49:10	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	2¢	$3	0xcc266e…
10-04 05:47:17	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x739d4b…
10-04 05:26:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	545	1¢	$6	0x091ca3…
10-04 04:56:10	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x37506b…
10-04 04:51:34	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xdc7a72…
10-04 04:51:01	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xdfd12b…
10-04 04:51:01	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7501ce…
10-04 04:51:01	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x65dfb0…
10-04 04:51:01	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4191a3…
10-04 04:48:17	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	2¢	$4	0x91f706…
10-04 04:47:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	3¢	$6	0x88a7d2…
10-04 04:47:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x09509e…
10-04 03:04:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0xc207ca…
10-03 22:48:13	Will Michael Kratsios be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	173	2¢	$3	0xa20658…
10-03 21:53:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xc61f7f…
10-03 21:52:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x730a55…
10-03 21:52:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x14ba45…
10-03 21:52:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xe22dbd…
10-03 21:52:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x204bb8…
10-03 21:52:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xef9768…
10-03 21:52:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x26c38f…
10-03 21:07:40	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	375	2¢	$6	0x70ce59…
10-03 17:42:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x68547f…
10-03 17:41:09	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x0609ab…
10-03 17:41:03	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x720786…
10-03 17:41:02	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x4cc8cb…
10-03 17:40:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xef28ad…
10-03 17:40:56	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x6f8496…
10-03 17:40:54	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xba5a57…
10-03 17:40:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x343c38…
10-03 17:40:50	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x871c00…
10-03 17:40:48	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xad577e…
10-03 17:40:42	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb19ee9…
10-03 17:40:33	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xb114fe…
10-03 16:07:11	Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x988261…
10-03 15:48:17	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	273	2¢	$7	0x83cf65…
10-03 12:48:18	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x555514…
10-03 12:35:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	4¢	$7	0x9e1dbf…
10-03 10:41:45	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	2¢	$6	0x57614b…
10-03 10:23:41	Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	1,200	0¢	$2	0xacfa3b…
10-03 10:05:51	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$0	0xa8e328…
10-03 10:05:51	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0x96cf53…
10-03 10:05:51	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x5ec61e…
10-03 09:24:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xee527d…
10-03 08:23:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0xb0a0f4…
10-03 07:53:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	4¢	$6	0x0699a8…
10-03 06:33:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x640ea9…
10-03 06:16:17	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	4¢	$6	0x295e32…
10-03 06:03:41	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	4¢	$6	0xb613f9…
10-03 06:03:38	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xc80097…
10-03 05:12:06	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$1	0xa425f1…
10-03 04:05:20	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	2¢	$2	0x0d882c…
10-03 04:05:18	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0xaa8ee9…
10-03 03:57:38	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	0¢	$0	0xd73da4…
10-03 00:30:45	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	273	2¢	$6	0x50a381…
10-02 23:02:03	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x927247…
10-02 22:15:11	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$1	0x462be9…
10-02 21:09:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	4¢	$6	0x9755f2…
10-02 20:28:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	194	3¢	$5	0xe4cf26…
10-02 19:00:18	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xcff416…
10-02 17:33:23	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xc1977b…
10-02 17:32:32	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0xaaa6ec…
10-02 17:30:02	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x66e0e9…
10-02 16:14:18	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	286	3¢	$7	0x1c335c…
10-02 15:28:11	Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0x587e18…
10-02 15:08:59	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	1¢	$1	0x26bcbd…
10-02 15:08:53	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0xef09f3…
10-02 15:05:00	Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x9eafb0…
10-02 14:11:27	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	214	3¢	$6	0xd638b2…