Wordy-Penguin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$212

Unrealized P&L

-$60

Hit rate

90.7%

Resolved

4,108

Trades

5,344

lifetime

Volume

$45.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$136

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 10:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 74% +$98

Other

6% 57% +$13

Politics

6% 69% +$105

Sports

1% 40% -$7

Tech

0% 67% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 613 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	-60	-$42	100¢	$-60	-$18	06-09 16:44
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-31	-$30	94¢	$-29	+$1	06-17 12:20
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-30	-$24	92¢	$-28	-$3	05-26 10:55
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No	-30	-$22	55¢	$-17	+$5	06-17 12:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-77	$42	3¢	$-2	-$44	10-01 07:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$566	352	352	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	3	$403	224	224	+0	open	—	10-16 06:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$376	260	260	+0	No	+$124	06-21 08:13
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	2	$219	112	112	+0	No	+$5	09-28 19:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$206	106	106	+0	No	+$6	07-05 16:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$198	107	107	+0	Yes	+$16	09-16 21:09
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	2	$195	99	99	+0	Yes	+$3	07-18 12:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$186	189	115	+74	No	+$13	04-21 20:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$143	105	105	+0	Yes	+$19	04-06 19:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$107	57	57	+0	No	+$7	08-18 20:29
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	3	$101	86	86	+0	No	+$41	08-16 16:46
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	2	$100	57	57	+0	open	—	08-28 14:34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$76	48	48	+0	No	-$2	05-27 10:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$75	68	68	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$73	61	39	+23	No	+$8	05-31 18:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$70	25	56	-31	open	—	06-17 12:20
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	6	$67	283	360	-77	open	—	10-01 07:45
another critical cloudflare incident by january 31	2	$65	35	35	+0	No	+$5	02-01 09:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$64	35	35	+0	No	+$5	04-28 17:20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$64	42	42	+0	No	+$14	04-08 05:45
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$64	34	34	+0	No	+$4	02-01 09:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	2	$63	56	56	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	2	$62	33	33	+0	No	+$2	04-18 15:33
Trump kiss by May 31?	3	$61	70	48	+22	Yes	-$29	05-20 14:45
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$57	34	34	+0	No	+$7	06-17 12:21
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	2	$55	42	42	+0	No	+$17	06-21 08:11
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	3	$54	55	24	+31	Yes	-$12	02-04 17:47
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	2	$52	27	27	+0	No	+$2	02-13 07:10
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 15 and 20 million views on day 1?	2	$49	51	0	+51	No	+$1	08-28 15:01
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$48	28	28	+0	No	+$7	03-29 14:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:25:33	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe0f74f…
10-27 11:25:00	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4cf36e…
10-27 11:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3d16f3…
10-27 11:13:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1de4d1…
10-27 11:13:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfa29fc…
10-27 11:13:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf73a44…
10-27 11:13:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe51507…
10-27 11:13:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb655fa…
10-27 11:08:59	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	29¢	$7	0xfa2fb3…
10-27 11:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x24060f…
10-27 11:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5869d8…
10-27 10:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x8dd7a2…
10-27 10:59:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd37ee2…
10-27 10:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x759c4a…
10-27 10:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x50a0c3…
10-27 10:59:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcd927e…
10-27 10:58:20	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb306e1…
10-27 10:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x004580…
10-27 10:33:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x751ba7…
10-27 10:29:27	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9bfabd…
10-27 10:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd6bfd7…
10-27 10:28:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x84e86d…
10-27 10:10:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x340c05…
10-27 10:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6343c8…
10-27 09:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdf8dae…
10-27 09:58:57	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbf9773…
10-27 09:44:44	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x77f5ab…
10-27 09:44:41	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9d39df…
10-27 09:44:39	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x6710e1…
10-27 09:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6b24ae…
10-27 09:29:18	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-27 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x60cb43…
10-27 09:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe21e02…
10-27 09:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7e4ccf…
10-27 08:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbd4a85…
10-27 08:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7a9f0e…
10-27 08:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f64d7…
10-27 08:45:54	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf30cb6…
10-27 08:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x041c88…
10-27 08:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xfe9f8a…
10-27 08:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6eaabd…
10-27 08:04:53	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb2c8f1…
10-27 08:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0b1d7a…
10-27 07:57:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xafc993…
10-27 07:57:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9c8413…
10-27 07:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb1e09b…
10-27 07:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4ab668…
10-27 07:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4023d9…
10-27 07:57:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x125eeb…
10-27 07:50:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb6e0de…
10-27 07:49:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8b8bf8…
10-27 07:37:53	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x260c61…
10-27 07:30:29	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6da2e1…
10-27 07:19:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa7e054…
10-27 07:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9dcdfd…
10-27 06:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb3c535…
10-27 06:23:57	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xad95f8…
10-27 06:23:57	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x53cd68…
10-27 06:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2af6c5…
10-27 06:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3c680b…
10-27 06:06:14	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xba99db…
10-27 05:59:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb778d6…
10-27 05:59:05	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdde4bc…
10-27 05:57:32	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$3	0x92f784…
10-27 05:52:20	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3f212d…
10-27 05:49:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd6d369…
10-27 05:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe34be3…
10-27 05:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x005b75…
10-27 05:29:29	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x71ddf2…
10-27 05:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8ef878…
10-27 05:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa7d33b…
10-27 05:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5dfe7b…
10-27 05:11:02	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb582d5…
10-27 05:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe77663…
10-27 05:01:24	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc3f699…
10-27 05:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa6723f…
10-27 04:59:53	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xca84bb…
10-27 04:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf08b50…
10-27 04:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa43dad…
10-27 04:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x952241…
10-27 04:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x320e91…
10-27 04:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0be6c5…
10-27 04:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa2ebfd…
10-27 04:43:45	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf4b41e…
10-27 04:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2208b7…
10-27 04:03:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x846aaf…
10-27 03:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4dbb8a…
10-27 03:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0a04cf…
10-27 03:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x43278f…
10-27 03:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x805365…
10-27 03:44:02	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3456a1…
10-27 03:39:44	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9d3bef…
10-27 03:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4e5759…
10-27 03:05:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x596d39…
10-27 02:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2c6ebf…
10-27 02:58:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5a59b7…
10-27 02:56:47	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x4d51fb…
10-27 02:38:29	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x2f4c1f…
10-27 02:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3c16b6…
10-27 02:29:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3a6b93…
10-27 02:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4cd349…