Wordy-Penguin — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$93

Unrealized P&L

-$62

Hit rate

91.9%

Resolved (90d)

4,222

Trades (90d)

5,444

5,601 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$46.9K

$50.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$167

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 20:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 75% +$67

Other

6% 57% +$13

Politics

5% 69% +$105

Sports

1% 40% -$7

Tech

0% 67% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 613 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes		-60	-$42	100¢	$-60	-$18	06-09 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	—	+30	$30	99¢	$30	$0	10-28 20:19
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No		-31	-$30	94¢	$-29	+$1	06-17 12:20
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		-30	-$24	92¢	$-28	-$4	05-26 10:55
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	No		-30	-$22	60¢	$-18	+$3	06-17 12:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-77	$42	3¢	$-2	-$44	10-01 07:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$566	352	352	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	3	$403	224	224	+0	open	—	10-16 06:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$376	260	260	+0	No	+$124	06-21 08:13
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	2	$219	112	112	+0	No	+$5	09-28 19:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$206	106	106	+0	No	+$6	07-05 16:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$198	107	107	+0	Yes	+$16	09-16 21:09
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	2	$195	99	99	+0	Yes	+$3	07-18 12:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$186	189	115	+74	No	+$13	04-21 20:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$143	105	105	+0	Yes	+$19	04-06 19:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$107	57	57	+0	No	+$7	08-18 20:29
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	3	$101	86	86	+0	No	+$41	08-16 16:46
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	2	$100	57	57	+0	open	—	08-28 14:34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$76	48	48	+0	No	-$2	05-27 10:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$75	68	68	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$73	61	39	+23	No	+$8	05-31 18:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$70	25	56	-31	open	—	06-17 12:20
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	6	$67	283	360	-77	open	—	10-01 07:45
another critical cloudflare incident by january 31	2	$65	35	35	+0	No	+$5	02-01 09:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$64	35	35	+0	No	+$5	04-28 17:20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$64	42	42	+0	No	+$14	04-08 05:45
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$64	34	34	+0	No	+$4	02-01 09:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	2	$63	56	56	+0	open	—	10-04 15:55
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	2	$62	33	33	+0	No	+$2	04-18 15:33
Trump kiss by May 31?	3	$61	70	48	+22	Yes	-$29	05-20 14:45
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$57	34	34	+0	No	+$7	06-17 12:21
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	2	$55	42	42	+0	No	+$17	06-21 08:11
another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	3	$54	55	24	+31	Yes	-$12	02-04 17:47
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	2	$52	27	27	+0	No	+$2	02-13 07:10
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 15 and 20 million views on day 1?	2	$49	51	0	+51	No	+$1	08-28 15:01
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$48	28	28	+0	No	+$7	03-29 14:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x63bcc4…
10-28 20:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x18d8f7…
10-28 20:15:19	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5087bf…
10-28 20:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xcc5cf0…
10-28 19:57:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf744b6…
10-28 19:57:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb901cb…
10-28 19:46:50	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xb39c26…
10-28 19:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xccfd3b…
10-28 19:39:53	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb5a6d8…
10-28 19:39:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0f392d…
10-28 18:52:46	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x8c28c9…
10-28 18:50:46	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8d7710…
10-28 18:49:38	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x534bdf…
10-28 18:49:37	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8da6da…
10-28 18:29:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x811f01…
10-28 18:01:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x30d382…
10-28 17:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7270df…
10-28 17:51:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xf59b9d…
10-28 17:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb74241…
10-28 17:50:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5b7543…
10-28 17:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x89d6a5…
10-28 17:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10293e…
10-28 17:26:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xfdc8fb…
10-28 17:25:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1eea8c…
10-28 17:25:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7eac17…
10-28 17:24:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61bd8a…
10-28 17:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2b8c1a…
10-28 17:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd63c49…
10-28 17:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5443ff…
10-28 17:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x227311…
10-28 17:19:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0c3aea…
10-28 17:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4c9238…
10-28 17:16:41	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x40a3b2…
10-28 17:15:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe1ca78…
10-28 17:13:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x087c92…
10-28 16:54:58	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3df38d…
10-28 16:54:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x95ebe0…
10-28 16:54:38	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x58b2a4…
10-28 16:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x10a196…
10-28 16:34:59	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4968ab…
10-28 16:25:53	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x265452…
10-28 15:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf4a3e5…
10-28 15:49:58	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x0d4164…
10-28 15:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbad504…
10-28 15:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x31d01b…
10-28 15:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x04f90a…
10-28 14:49:53	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9c89ca…
10-28 14:43:43	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaa2f30…
10-28 14:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2c3236…
10-28 14:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbcc688…
10-28 14:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7dbd2d…
10-28 14:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6a9f30…
10-28 14:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe09b76…
10-28 14:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xfb0c5a…
10-28 14:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x82d37f…
10-28 14:15:22	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x158c31…
10-28 14:10:59	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x379ce9…
10-28 14:10:35	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe3c350…
10-28 14:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd6bd7d…
10-28 13:29:16	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3b95a1…
10-28 12:59:28	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3576b9…
10-28 12:49:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x45575d…
10-28 12:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x72daaa…
10-28 12:36:02	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2ad0c0…
10-28 12:27:19	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xa0a777…
10-28 12:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa4324c…
10-28 12:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x360a2c…
10-28 12:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0d8314…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd90af6…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x971fa7…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8bee80…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5f1751…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x516420…
10-28 12:11:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x227028…
10-28 12:09:43	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1d7153…
10-28 12:01:07	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9a1dbe…
10-28 11:59:43	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf3fca7…
10-28 11:57:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc61136…
10-28 11:57:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x407a5f…
10-28 11:45:04	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfd0a46…
10-28 11:44:59	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1cd6c6…
10-28 11:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3c91c0…
10-28 11:35:53	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdbeca5…
10-28 11:35:29	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0010e3…
10-28 11:34:56	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5d5c72…
10-28 11:13:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x61c8b8…
10-28 11:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6ebbdb…
10-28 11:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdf26a9…
10-28 11:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdd7171…
10-28 10:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa2f9a7…
10-28 10:26:08	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1cbc20…
10-28 10:25:25	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd924b8…
10-28 10:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x64979e…
10-28 10:24:52	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbc9444…
10-28 10:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb59f68…
10-28 10:05:40	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7f5663…
10-28 09:55:44	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xee8be1…
10-28 09:54:17	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xcdb24d…
10-28 09:15:47	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcaca60…
10-28 09:14:40	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0424e5…