Realized P&L
-$5
Unrealized P&L
-$159
Hit rate
46.3%
Resolved
8
Trades
735
lifetime
Volume
$18.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$26
Open exposure
$690
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-02 06:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
64% 33% $-17
Other
30% 40% +$12
Crypto
3%
Sports
1%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
70 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +345 $300 88¢ $305 +$5 06-30 23:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -110 $-96 86¢ $-95 +$1 06-21 08:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +110 $51 42¢ $47 $-4 06-08 13:46
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes +82 $50 56¢ $46 $-4 06-19 10:48
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +1,411 $116 $40 $-76 07-01 07:17
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +167 $40 22¢ $36 $-4 06-29 12:29
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +43 $30 61¢ $26 $-4 06-29 12:30
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +100 $32 26¢ $26 $-6 06-25 20:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +74 $20 24¢ $18 $-2 06-07 22:20
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +80 $19 22¢ $18 $-1 06-05 09:15
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +170 $20 10¢ $16 $-4 06-22 16:23
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No +110 $18 $7 $-11 06-26 11:25
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes +50 $11 11¢ $6 $-6 06-24 11:38
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No +60 $17 $3 $-14 06-03 14:55
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes +18 $3 $1 $-2 06-07 15:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +100 $15 $0 $-15 06-22 08:00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +50 $12 $0 $-12 06-08 10:45