Amused-Innocence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

45.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$222

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-14 05:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

71% 33% -$6

Politics

29% 50% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No		+5	$4	86¢	$4	+$1	09-03 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	2	$936	480	480	+0	Vålerenga Fotball	+$24	05-28 01:59
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	2	$931	520	520	+0	open	—	05-24 05:59
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	2	$911	490	490	+0	No	+$0	05-25 02:42
NATO dissolves before 2027?	2	$893	470	470	+0	open	—	05-19 08:16
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	2	$880	460	460	+0	open	—	07-13 07:15
will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	2	$869	475	475	+0	open	—	07-13 09:09
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	2	$833	455	455	+0	open	—	07-09 10:09
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	2	$828	445	445	+0	open	—	07-09 11:10
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$678	369	369	+0	No	+$0	04-16 03:08
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	2	$528	278	278	+0	open	—	06-22 09:05
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	2	$525	278	278	+0	No	-$3	06-22 10:12
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5	1	$461	490	0	+490	Over	+$29	05-24 06:10
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5)	1	$456	480	0	+480	AC Monza	+$24	05-19 08:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$210	300	300	+0	No	+$6	05-08 03:58
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	5	$152	1,010	1,010	+0	No	-$10	05-23 01:03
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	4	$98	975	975	+0	open	—	05-23 03:23
will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	3	$81	905	905	+0	No	+$0	08-03 08:34
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$81	900	900	+0	No	+$0	08-03 06:35
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	2	$70	999	0	+999	Sydney FC	-$70	05-23 04:02
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	09-03 08:56
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-14 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 05:54:05	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa5b184…
09-03 08:56:42	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6e1655…
08-03 08:34:30	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	SELL	905	4¢	$41	0xa52fc3…
08-03 07:14:39	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	BUY	465	4¢	$21	0x5eb8b1…
08-03 07:14:38	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	BUY	440	4¢	$20	0xc97a76…
08-03 06:35:57	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	900	4¢	$40	0x769778…
08-03 05:55:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	900	4¢	$40	0xa3c86e…
07-13 09:09:26	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	SELL	475	91¢	$432	0xf7f316…
07-13 08:00:16	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	BUY	475	92¢	$437	0xe30e7e…
07-13 07:15:16	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	460	96¢	$440	0x02b042…
07-13 05:44:26	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	460	96¢	$440	0xfa83a7…
07-09 11:10:10	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	445	93¢	$414	0x5113d9…
07-09 10:19:04	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	445	93¢	$414	0x83f8b4…
07-09 10:09:58	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	455	91¢	$414	0xb64a4e…
07-09 07:15:25	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0x639b7b…
06-22 10:12:46	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	278	94¢	$261	0x7d2455…
06-22 09:10:26	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	278	95¢	$264	0x1b8c94…
06-22 09:05:32	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	SELL	278	95¢	$264	0x4073c4…
06-22 07:38:31	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	BUY	278	95¢	$264	0xe8605b…
05-28 01:59:44	Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	Vålerenga Fotball	SELL	480	100¢	$480	0x1b64cf…
05-25 02:48:54	Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	Vålerenga Fotball	BUY	480	95¢	$456	0xded8bd…
05-25 02:42:55	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	No	SELL	490	93¢	$456	0x8cbad8…
05-25 02:02:26	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	No	BUY	490	93¢	$456	0x6c5b82…
05-24 06:10:24	Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	490	94¢	$461	0xc99226…
05-24 05:59:54	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	SELL	520	89¢	$463	0x6ea64d…
05-24 02:41:18	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	520	90¢	$468	0x1f06b0…
05-23 04:02:45	Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	Auckland FC	BUY	489	7¢	$34	0x73e63f…
05-23 04:02:31	Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	Auckland FC	BUY	510	7¢	$36	0x23e778…
05-23 03:23:45	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	SELL	475	5¢	$24	0x509c21…
05-23 03:23:35	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	5¢	$25	0x400caf…
05-23 02:14:38	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	BUY	475	5¢	$24	0x1b8650…
05-23 02:14:24	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x1329d3…
05-23 01:03:52	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x26d038…
05-23 01:03:43	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	7¢	$35	0xc54647…
05-23 01:03:29	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	SELL	485	7¢	$34	0x944c59…
05-20 01:59:32	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	BUY	510	8¢	$41	0xab599b…
05-20 01:59:19	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x955f9d…
05-19 08:23:57	Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5)	AC Monza	BUY	480	95¢	$456	0x983ff6…
05-19 08:16:40	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	470	95¢	$446	0x70109b…
05-19 06:22:57	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	BUY	470	95¢	$446	0x730aa1…
05-08 03:58:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	300	36¢	$108	0x358aa4…
05-08 02:54:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	274	34¢	$93	0x307c26…
05-08 02:52:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x3290bd…
05-08 02:52:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xab87d5…
05-08 02:52:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x8e6fd9…
04-16 03:08:58	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	369	92¢	$339	0xf0fc57…
04-16 02:14:30	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	369	92¢	$339	0x91ddbc…