Quizzical-Fertilizer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.1%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$2.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-08 17:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

51% — —

Other

37% 0% —

Sports

12% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	10	$270	138	138	+0	open	—	04-10 14:46
Will Alberta join the US?	8	$143	149	149	+0	open	—	06-08 12:11
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$142	72	72	+0	open	—	06-05 00:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	7	$138	139	139	+0	open	—	06-06 12:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	5	$131	125	125	+0	open	—	06-05 09:05
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$126	78	78	+0	open	—	06-02 21:02
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	9	$99	134	134	+0	open	—	04-20 21:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	4	$94	87	87	+0	open	—	06-02 02:58
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$78	110	110	+0	No	+$0	04-11 23:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$73	38	38	+0	open	—	04-10 20:44
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	04-22 08:31
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$70	37	37	+0	open	—	04-22 06:56
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	6	$69	107	107	+0	open	—	06-08 12:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$68	105	105	+0	open	—	05-17 08:13
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	2	$68	36	36	+0	open	—	03-30 19:42
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	04-04 07:39
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	3	$66	43	43	+0	open	—	05-30 01:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$66	35	35	+0	open	—	05-19 12:26
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$65	34	34	+0	open	—	06-07 03:24
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	4	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	04-21 13:42
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$64	34	34	+0	Yes	+$0	04-22 20:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	04-21 08:51
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	04-21 20:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	3	$56	79	79	+0	open	—	06-08 17:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	05-18 00:53
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$33	17	17	+0	open	—	03-27 23:35
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	05-29 20:18
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	4	$18	47	47	+0	open	—	06-06 02:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$3	31	31	+0	open	—	05-18 04:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 17:55:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	68	33¢	$22	0xcc9ec9…
06-08 17:55:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x38d1e0…
06-08 15:27:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x7a5d52…
06-08 12:13:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x4b8478…
06-08 12:11:33	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x6ab9db…
06-07 13:36:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0x8b9a65…
06-07 12:01:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0xdffac7…
06-07 09:19:21	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	37	5¢	$2	0xb37d50…
06-07 09:19:21	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	37	5¢	$2	0x1337e6…
06-07 06:13:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	78	5¢	$4	0xb37848…
06-07 03:24:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xb9197c…
06-06 22:59:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x659f62…
06-06 12:34:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xf1f611…
06-06 12:33:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	50¢	$28	0xaec33d…
06-06 12:33:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x72b9a2…
06-06 11:20:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	50¢	$36	0xf040b5…
06-06 02:16:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xc5716e…
06-06 02:16:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	27	19¢	$5	0x55ab11…
06-06 00:35:27	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	19¢	$6	0x22ae60…
06-06 00:35:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	19¢	$3	0x1952c7…
06-05 09:05:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	59	55¢	$32	0x7aed35…
06-05 03:01:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	59	55¢	$32	0xf651ec…
06-05 00:49:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x2c565b…
06-04 22:24:21	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x5e5d66…
06-04 18:02:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xb9d4d7…
06-04 16:15:58	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$35	0xe89617…
06-03 13:00:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	49¢	$33	0x4a0ac5…
06-03 10:01:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xc80d05…
06-03 10:01:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0x037b63…
06-03 01:18:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x9805de…
06-02 21:22:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x30fa0d…
06-02 21:02:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	44	82¢	$36	0x119c8d…
06-02 19:20:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	44	82¢	$36	0xcc4833…
06-02 02:58:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	31¢	$11	0x86f2a9…
06-02 01:15:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	31¢	$11	0x7793e6…
06-01 23:13:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xe9f20c…
06-01 20:47:32	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x4b7494…
05-31 13:05:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	51	70¢	$36	0x3ba751…
05-31 11:19:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	51	70¢	$36	0x4cbe7e…
05-30 20:26:19	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	50¢	$22	0xf200db…
05-30 20:26:19	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0xcf3d43…
05-30 19:11:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	66	50¢	$33	0x81d71f…
05-30 19:09:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	34	78¢	$27	0xb0f166…
05-30 16:46:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0xa82224…
05-30 01:22:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	43	77¢	$33	0x07fe24…
05-29 23:40:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	35	77¢	$27	0xfce170…
05-29 23:40:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x30b037…
05-29 20:18:54	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xf772d1…
05-29 17:14:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xd115e4…
05-28 09:57:53	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xef5a95…
05-28 09:57:53	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x2296fe…
05-28 06:36:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0xcecc03…
05-19 12:26:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x9deeaf…
05-19 09:23:15	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x930686…
05-18 04:11:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0xeb7a03…
05-18 01:58:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xaa43e8…
05-18 01:58:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x1f3487…
05-18 00:53:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x09b882…
05-17 22:48:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x1db22f…
05-17 08:13:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	2¢	$1	0xe853a2…
05-17 08:13:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xd7db98…
05-17 05:58:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xbb05f9…
05-17 05:58:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x2d917e…
05-16 22:35:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x4aeb85…
05-16 22:35:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcf86dc…
05-16 17:52:15	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x38135f…
04-22 20:24:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xa5b97e…
04-22 20:24:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x2feca6…
04-22 17:53:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0xa10132…
04-22 08:31:28	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x707a2e…
04-22 08:29:32	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xe79a73…
04-22 06:56:24	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdd0ffb…
04-22 06:56:22	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x1ffcda…
04-22 04:28:50	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0x5c3d02…
04-21 20:55:16	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xefd5cb…
04-21 18:06:04	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0071a5…
04-21 13:42:48	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xda77e3…
04-21 13:42:48	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x295bdd…
04-21 11:39:54	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xe512e6…
04-21 11:39:54	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x616dc6…
04-21 08:51:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xf403e2…
04-21 08:51:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x207b13…
04-21 05:40:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0xc02ef0…
04-20 21:23:52	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xc3be5b…
04-20 16:51:18	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x737708…
04-20 16:27:00	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0x4505e3…
04-20 16:27:00	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x3198d9…
04-20 12:04:08	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x686a93…
04-20 09:51:12	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xedca11…
04-20 09:51:12	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x2a0686…
04-13 16:09:25	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xd4d562…
04-13 14:13:03	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xdb1861…
04-11 23:34:53	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0xd491b5…
04-11 21:31:41	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0x91f232…
04-10 20:44:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0xffc1b6…
04-10 20:43:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x000405…
04-10 14:46:23	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x6f2df3…
04-10 12:37:13	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x12a419…
04-10 12:37:13	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x011059…
04-09 01:10:59	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	74	8¢	$6	0x4c84ad…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	29	$361.5K	5,484	06-10 03:50
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	28	$138.9K	10,409	06-10 02:21
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	25	$60.7K	459	06-08 20:34
Babyish-Thesis 0x7fa4…30eb	24	$1.77K	109	06-08 17:49
Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae	23	$49.5K	16,958	06-09 23:06
Favorable-Pepper 0xc3d2…9383	23	$7.87K	151	06-08 03:53
Venerated-Garlic 0x02f1…3ca2	23	$7.31K	110	06-09 20:21
Thankful-Fender 0x4947…353d	23	$3.30K	121	06-07 08:18