Realized P&L
+$996
Unrealized P&L
-$2.70K
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
3
Trades
694
lifetime
Volume
$111.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$160
Open exposure
$66.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-04
last 10-27 03:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Other
72% 100% +$352
Politics
26% 100% +$643
Tech
2% — —
Crypto
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 622 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +10,693 $8,997 84¢ $9.0K +$39 10-12 17:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +10,204 $9,001 88¢ $9.0K +$29 10-27 01:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +9,064 $7,070 78¢ $7.1K +$45 10-12 17:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +6,802 $4,711 72¢ $4.9K +$152 10-12 14:58
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +5,426 $3,871 68¢ $3.7K -$209 10-12 17:57
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +7,332 $3,514 33¢ $2.4K -$1,094 10-12 17:57
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +2,271 $2,023 91¢ $2.1K +$45 10-12 17:37
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +2,908 $2,394 67¢ $1.9K -$459 10-12 17:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +2,230 $1,962 86¢ $1.9K -$33 10-12 17:24
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +2,033 $1,748 88¢ $1.8K +$30 10-12 17:57
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? No +2,340 $1,979 73¢ $1.7K -$270 10-12 17:22
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? No +4,496 $1,717 38¢ $1.7K -$31 10-12 17:57
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +2,222 $1,493 72¢ $1.6K +$96 10-12 17:39
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +1,783 $1,458 80¢ $1.4K -$40 10-12 17:11
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +1,733 $1,427 82¢ $1.4K -$15 10-12 17:36
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +2,012 $1,603 69¢ $1.4K -$215 10-12 17:47
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No +1,362 $1,226 90¢ $1.2K +$7 10-12 17:42
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? No +1,308 $1,039 94¢ $1.2K +$184 10-12 14:43
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +1,496 $1,182 80¢ $1.2K +$15 10-12 17:52
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? No +1,715 $1,235 68¢ $1.2K -$60 10-12 17:36
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? No +1,295 $1,148 90¢ $1.2K +$12 10-12 17:42
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? No +1,765 $1,236 59¢ $1.0K -$194 10-12 17:36
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,422 $1,240 71¢ $1.0K -$230 10-12 17:36
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? No +1,792 $986 46¢ $833 -$152 10-12 17:17
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? No +1,301 $982 64¢ $833 -$149 10-12 17:07
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +993 $783 79¢ $784 +$2 10-12 17:13
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,158 $983 67¢ $781 -$202 10-12 17:57
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +877 $753 86¢ $754 +$1 10-12 17:01
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? No +960 $736 76¢ $730 -$7 10-12 17:15
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? No +798 $658 84¢ $667 +$8 10-12 15:34