Nautical-Placement 0xbe8990…45b88c
whale hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$44.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$5.77K
Hit rate
90.9%
Resolved
264
Trades
4,084
lifetime
Volume
$3.20M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$785
Open exposure
$164.3K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 21:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 73 days
Categories
Other
89% 42% +$46,534
Politics
11% 50% -$1,807
Tech
0% 0% -$21
Crypto
0% 0% -$41
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
70 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +86,950 $72,720 70¢ $61.3K -$11,420 10-29 21:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +48,490 $36,483 70¢ $34.2K -$2,297 10-29 02:14
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +36,075 $21,103 72¢ $26.2K +$5,051 10-29 13:21
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +26,215 $16,941 68¢ $18.0K +$1,017 10-28 18:45
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -7,903 -$7,755 100¢ $-7867 -$112 10-13 08:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +10,246 $6,988 68¢ $7.0K +$31 10-28 23:45
US military draft authorized in 2026? No -4,426 -$4,315 98¢ $-4340 -$25 10-13 08:13
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +2,691 $2,087 94¢ $2.5K +$438 10-15 12:41
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +1,193 $995 87¢ $1.0K +$43 07-16 19:11
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +1,124 $1,010 90¢ $1.0K -$4 10-09 14:08
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No -409 -$481 97¢ $-396 +$85 09-29 18:25
Trump out as President before 2027? No -221 -$212 96¢ $-213 -$1 10-13 18:49
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? No +244 $115 36¢ $89 -$26 10-05 20:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +4,963 $135 1¢ $72 -$63 10-14 18:06
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No -40 -$35 87¢ $-35 +$0 05-22 17:41
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes -1,650 -$758 1¢ $-23 +$734 05-02 04:22
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? Yes +40 $17 38¢ $15 -$2 09-22 23:03
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +20 $11 64¢ $13 +$2 10-05 21:03
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +472 -$731 1¢ $5 +$736 10-09 22:35
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$1 05-01 19:26
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -522 -$31 0¢ $-3 +$29 05-16 13:51
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -93 -$15 0¢ $-0 +$15 06-04 14:58