Heavy-Contrary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

61.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$177

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-14 05:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

69% 44% -$31

Politics

31% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No		+5	$4	80¢	$4	+$0	09-03 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	6	$1.1K	588	588	+0	open	—	05-24 06:04
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	2	$902	475	475	+0	open	—	05-23 03:23
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	2	$897	485	485	+0	No	+$5	05-23 01:03
will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	2	$833	455	455	+0	open	—	07-13 09:08
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	2	$832	435	435	+0	open	—	07-13 07:13
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	2	$809	435	435	+0	open	—	07-09 11:09
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	3	$778	425	425	+0	open	—	07-09 10:10
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$619	337	337	+0	No	+$0	04-16 03:08
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	3	$509	268	268	+0	open	—	06-22 09:05
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	2	$501	265	265	+0	No	-$3	06-22 10:12
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5	1	$479	510	0	+510	Over	+$31	05-24 06:09
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	1	$455	489	0	+489	Sydney FC	+$34	05-23 04:02
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	4	$193	150	150	+0	No	+$1	05-07 13:21
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	4	$139	990	990	+0	No	+$0	05-25 02:43
NATO dissolves before 2027?	5	$100	1,005	1,005	+0	open	—	05-19 08:16
will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	3	$81	905	905	+0	No	+$0	08-03 08:33
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	3	$81	900	900	+0	No	+$0	08-03 06:36
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5)	2	$49	1,005	0	+1,005	AC Monza	-$49	05-19 08:23
Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	2	$48	970	0	+970	Vålerenga Fotball	-$48	05-25 02:48
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	09-03 08:56
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-14 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 05:54:07	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x0cd6b3…
09-03 08:56:10	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x140e30…
08-03 08:33:38	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	SELL	905	4¢	$41	0x755930…
08-03 07:13:44	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	BUY	465	4¢	$21	0x2a3005…
08-03 07:13:42	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	BUY	440	4¢	$20	0xa9a7f0…
08-03 06:36:33	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	900	4¢	$40	0x2b197a…
08-03 05:52:54	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	460	4¢	$21	0x371d80…
08-03 05:52:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	440	4¢	$20	0xc26813…
07-13 09:08:31	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	SELL	455	91¢	$414	0xd0b187…
07-13 08:00:17	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0xdca493…
07-13 07:13:22	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	435	96¢	$416	0xfa7d78…
07-13 05:44:07	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	435	96¢	$416	0xbeec01…
07-09 11:09:55	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	435	93¢	$405	0x4da476…
07-09 10:19:14	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	435	93¢	$405	0xfa0cca…
07-09 10:10:28	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0xc6bf32…
07-09 10:10:13	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	400	91¢	$364	0x9fccc1…
07-09 07:15:40	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	425	92¢	$391	0x105418…
06-22 10:12:34	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	265	94¢	$249	0xf53993…
06-22 09:11:04	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	265	95¢	$252	0x9de520…
06-22 09:05:55	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x286aa0…
06-22 09:05:49	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	SELL	255	95¢	$242	0x359720…
06-22 07:36:41	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No	BUY	268	95¢	$255	0x3a1ef1…
05-25 02:48:54	Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	IK Start	BUY	480	5¢	$24	0xded8bd…
05-25 02:48:31	Spread: IK Start (-2.5)	IK Start	BUY	490	5¢	$24	0x7a922a…
05-25 02:43:36	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	Yes	SELL	480	7¢	$34	0x0d4827…
05-25 02:43:09	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	Yes	SELL	510	7¢	$36	0x4c900a…
05-25 02:02:26	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	Yes	BUY	490	7¢	$34	0x6c5b82…
05-25 02:02:12	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x99115c…
05-24 06:09:42	Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	510	94¢	$479	0xf12910…
05-24 06:04:44	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xddeab9…
05-24 06:03:59	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	SELL	42	90¢	$38	0x141552…
05-24 06:03:20	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xb4dbb0…
05-24 06:02:14	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0xcae6a7…
05-24 05:58:46	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	SELL	540	89¢	$481	0xbbed21…
05-24 02:41:15	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	540	90¢	$486	0xec569f…
05-23 04:02:45	Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	Sydney FC	BUY	489	93¢	$455	0x73e63f…
05-23 03:23:45	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	SELL	475	95¢	$451	0x509c21…
05-23 02:14:38	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	BUY	475	95¢	$451	0x1b8650…
05-23 01:03:29	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	SELL	485	93¢	$451	0x944c59…
05-20 01:58:51	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	BUY	485	92¢	$446	0x80197e…
05-19 08:23:35	Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5)	SS Juve Stabia	BUY	510	5¢	$25	0xa62b43…
05-19 08:23:22	Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5)	SS Juve Stabia	BUY	495	5¢	$24	0x20494e…
05-19 08:16:52	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0x474367…
05-19 08:16:40	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	470	5¢	$24	0x70109b…
05-19 08:16:28	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	480	5¢	$24	0xdfaaf8…
05-19 06:22:27	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	BUY	510	5¢	$26	0x4250d5…
05-19 06:22:08	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	BUY	495	5¢	$25	0xa4ce2c…
05-07 13:21:48	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	150	65¢	$97	0x2efa3a…
05-07 09:38:24	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	64	64¢	$41	0x37db3c…
05-07 09:38:24	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	61	64¢	$39	0x100997…
05-07 08:29:27	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0xcbafea…
04-16 03:08:26	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	337	92¢	$310	0x245e59…
04-16 02:13:12	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	337	92¢	$310	0x8454b2…