Grand-Restoration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$66

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.7%

Resolved

Trades

7,391

lifetime

Volume

$667.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 17:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

68% 50% +$30

Other

30% 100% +$36

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 167 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 8	48	$22.6K	16,711	6,711	+10,000	open	—	06-07 23:13
netanyahu out by march 31 854	39	$17.8K	8,742	9,501	-759	open	—	03-31 17:23
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	49	$15.5K	7,741	8,455	-714	open	—	03-17 17:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	28	$14.4K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	04-17 20:21
will the us not strike another country before 2027 952	95	$12.4K	8,061	4,433	+3,628	open	—	01-23 20:09
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	96	$9.9K	5,000	4,980	+20	open	—	01-29 23:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	75	$9.6K	5,779	4,850	+929	open	—	04-15 00:59
will iran strike dimona by march 31	116	$9.1K	5,254	4,748	+506	open	—	04-01 01:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	50	$9.0K	7,700	2,700	+5,000	open	—	04-01 16:43
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$9.0K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	02-03 22:51
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	21	$8.5K	8,660	660	+8,000	open	—	04-29 19:56
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	51	$8.5K	5,373	5,056	+316	open	—	02-28 19:37
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	89	$8.0K	5,100	5,100	+0	open	—	08-02 08:44
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$7.9K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	06-02 11:11
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	89	$7.7K	5,396	4,396	+1,000	open	—	07-25 21:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$7.7K	3,909	4,149	-240	open	—	07-06 21:11
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	8	$7.6K	7,564	0	+7,564	open	—	02-06 17:44
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	83	$7.4K	4,519	4,119	+400	open	—	04-01 05:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	26	$7.2K	7,370	1,370	+6,000	open	—	04-08 20:52
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	15	$6.9K	4,505	2,505	+2,000	open	—	07-24 20:48
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	8	$6.3K	6,342	0	+6,342	open	—	02-03 21:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	9	$6.2K	6,157	157	+6,000	open	—	03-01 02:10
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	52	$6.2K	4,187	5,537	-1,350	open	—	08-09 20:18
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	46	$6.2K	4,048	4,048	+0	open	—	08-04 16:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	43	$6.1K	3,950	3,250	+700	open	—	05-06 19:09
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	5	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	01-15 16:49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	95	$6.0K	4,900	4,510	+390	open	—	04-16 16:42
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	19	$5.4K	3,002	3,002	+0	open	—	07-24 14:27
iran closes its airspace by june 15	9	$5.3K	5,290	100	+5,190	open	—	06-07 23:10
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	01-10 20:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 23:00:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x901ef7…
08-11 22:50:52	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	262	92¢	$241	0x71197e…
08-11 22:43:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	479	8¢	$38	0xefb9a9…
08-11 22:39:07	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	No	BUY	16	80¢	$13	0xaa1bc0…
08-11 22:37:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x41034d…
08-11 22:37:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x006d00…
08-11 22:36:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$984	0xd01c33…
08-11 22:36:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0x6ff0cc…
08-11 22:35:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0x3fa76d…
08-11 22:34:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	170	98¢	$167	0xd80a21…
08-11 22:27:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x0a6c5d…
08-11 21:54:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x54e5b8…
08-11 21:49:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xec2090…
08-11 21:48:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x6f4b1d…
08-11 20:20:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	400	3¢	$12	0x010867…
08-11 20:08:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xe80b9d…
08-11 20:07:03	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	60	57¢	$34	0x2f2daa…
08-11 20:05:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	115	98¢	$113	0xf00b59…
08-11 17:41:13	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x5f92da…
08-11 16:12:15	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xb34558…
08-11 15:54:33	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x93eee3…
08-11 15:25:55	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xa39314…
08-11 15:25:34	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3d81f0…
08-11 15:25:31	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	78	85¢	$66	0xd92454…
08-11 15:24:58	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x86d9ca…
08-11 15:24:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	46	66¢	$30	0x3f5af2…
08-11 15:16:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0xb3558a…
08-11 15:15:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x9c2301…
08-11 15:14:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0xec6e27…
08-11 14:47:58	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0xf67921…
08-11 12:02:36	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	SELL	415	72¢	$299	0x69ffd4…
08-11 08:10:52	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x613384…
08-11 06:07:58	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xe6917f…
08-11 06:07:43	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0xce5bc7…
08-11 02:41:48	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0x149082…
08-11 01:13:07	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0xa0d734…
08-11 00:20:19	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xc5bd38…
08-11 00:09:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x23659c…
08-10 23:41:48	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xed22e8…
08-10 23:17:24	will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xc17a9b…
08-10 23:09:33	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	69	76¢	$52	0x0f03ff…
08-10 16:43:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x21a6bf…
08-10 16:42:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	300	33¢	$99	0xd9a2c5…
08-10 15:34:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	96	60¢	$57	0xb46ad0…
08-10 15:34:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0xf76ec9…
08-10 15:34:03	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	56	40¢	$22	0x1d34bb…
08-10 15:33:13	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xcad3e7…
08-10 15:32:34	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x9bebda…
08-10 15:24:22	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xf6d40f…
08-10 13:47:30	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	62	92¢	$57	0x16786f…
08-10 11:04:58	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x1d0f87…
08-10 08:02:27	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0xa5c5f4…
08-10 05:50:40	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0x2f845b…
08-10 04:45:03	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x1d34ae…
08-10 03:38:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	150	78¢	$117	0x8a7ac3…
08-10 03:28:37	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x80296b…
08-10 03:18:52	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x1b1fb3…
08-10 02:55:07	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x148049…
08-10 01:35:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	70	44¢	$31	0x350156…
08-10 01:34:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	720	9¢	$65	0xa224ff…
08-10 01:32:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x7593a2…
08-10 01:32:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x54f757…
08-10 01:28:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x959e27…
08-10 01:28:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	48	23¢	$11	0xf35630…
08-10 01:27:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	150	23¢	$34	0xecb973…
08-10 01:23:39	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x4b2f41…
08-10 01:19:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x98e5ea…
08-10 01:05:24	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x5e63e0…
08-10 01:05:21	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x1feb36…
08-10 00:54:00	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x359736…
08-10 00:47:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x0e555b…
08-10 00:45:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	SELL	500	34¢	$170	0x303db3…
08-10 00:45:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	472	24¢	$113	0xd29cf8…
08-10 00:23:13	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	150	57¢	$85	0x21a5c0…
08-09 23:38:43	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x489d31…
08-09 23:06:22	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	95	57¢	$54	0x251085…
08-09 22:37:25	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xf97d4f…
08-09 22:34:00	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xf87207…
08-09 22:27:55	will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	BUY	105	77¢	$81	0xa34487…
08-09 21:53:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xba404f…
08-09 21:53:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x0c2eb2…
08-09 20:39:45	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x0e9c33…
08-09 20:20:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	400	12¢	$48	0xf744ba…
08-09 20:18:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,500	85¢	$1,275	0x45f6fe…
08-09 16:56:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0x6f12eb…
08-09 15:37:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	700	7¢	$49	0x36fdda…
08-09 11:53:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	300	47¢	$141	0x1ff097…
08-09 06:32:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	48	84¢	$40	0x7103d1…
08-09 05:44:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0xbc1fa4…
08-09 04:54:52	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	38	76¢	$29	0x6cf474…
08-09 04:36:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	83	84¢	$70	0x000643…
08-09 03:59:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x5c01b3…
08-09 03:50:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xef5739…
08-09 03:48:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x21242a…
08-09 02:56:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	39	84¢	$32	0xf60e80…
08-09 02:47:24	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x316ae3…
08-09 02:38:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x55570b…
08-09 02:09:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$9	0x65e070…
08-09 02:08:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	174	84¢	$146	0x44c87b…
08-09 00:00:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x83177b…