Realized P&L (30d)
+$1.82K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.21K
Hit rate
90.7%
Resolved (30d)
45
Trades (30d)
616
9,722 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$70.5K
$872.3K lifetime
Avg / trade
$90
Open exposure
$20.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-12 02:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 200 days
Categories
Politics
65% 79% +$12,271
Other
32% 74% +$5,614
Crypto
2% 37% +$154
Sports
0% 50% -$680
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$63
Tech
0% 40% -$121
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +4,000 $3,836 98¢ $3.9K +$78 10-26 01:44
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +24,521 $2,506 16¢ $3.8K +$1,307 11-10 13:57
Trump out as President before 2027? No -2,400 -$2,160 98¢ $-2347 -$187 05-23 21:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +3,000 $1,803 67¢ $2.0K +$196 11-08 23:49
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -1,300 -$949 94¢ $-1216 -$266 06-08 01:41
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes +1,200 $1,096 99¢ $1.2K +$94 09-29 13:20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,000 $1,481 33¢ $1.0K -$481 11-09 20:01
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +1,000 $911 88¢ $882 -$30 11-11 00:54
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +800 $611 94¢ $756 +$145 11-09 16:29
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +560 $521 98¢ $546 +$25 11-11 00:58
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +500 $433 98¢ $489 +$55 10-17 19:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 15, 2026? No +600 $453 79¢ $474 +$20 11-11 19:27
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -400 -$300 86¢ $-346 -$46 07-16 16:20
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $356 84¢ $334 -$22 11-12 02:10
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +260 $234 96¢ $250 +$16 09-20 15:30
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +100,000 $190 0¢ $150 -$40 09-28 23:18
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? No +120 $92 75¢ $90 -$2 11-12 00:42
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? No +100 $45 86¢ $86 +$40 11-12 02:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? No +200 $50 36¢ $73 +$24 11-11 00:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? Yes +100 $61 70¢ $69 +$8 10-26 10:58
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -579 -$358 10¢ $-56 +$303 05-28 15:08
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? Yes +450 $120 12¢ $52 -$68 11-02 05:09
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +50 $34 68¢ $34 +$0 11-11 22:15
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +20,000 $60 0¢ $30 -$30 10-23 14:57
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +50 -$85 60¢ $30 +$115 11-11 22:53
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +150 $37 15¢ $22 -$15 11-11 00:12
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +10,000 $20 0¢ $15 -$5 10-25 15:40
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? Yes -70 -$32 18¢ $-13 +$19 10-23 20:17
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +30 $22 26¢ $8 -$14 11-07 03:13
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 Yes +66 $34 6¢ $4 -$30 08-12 04:22