Sudden-Gingerbread — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

Trades

575

lifetime

Volume

$26.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-19 18:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

50% 50% +$42

Crypto

22% — —

Other

17% 43% $-50

Tech

9% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	27	$2.1K	1,600	1,664	-64	open	—	06-01 05:58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	8	$1.5K	1,100	850	+250	open	—	06-02 08:52
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	35	$1.5K	1,600	1,200	+400	open	—	06-12 01:57
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	14	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-01 06:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	12	$1.3K	800	1,600	-800	open	—	05-29 19:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	21	$1.2K	773	1,300	-527	open	—	05-29 19:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	12	$1.2K	643	643	+0	open	—	06-01 11:57
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$735	411	411	+0	open	—	06-06 14:21
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	6	$725	400	600	-200	open	—	06-12 05:41
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	11	$564	300	500	-200	open	—	05-25 14:58
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$441	537	537	+0	open	—	02-06 15:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$418	624	624	+0	open	—	03-01 14:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	11	$413	300	300	+0	open	—	06-11 01:01
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	4	$409	284	284	+0	open	—	02-15 16:24
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$398	400	400	+0	open	—	06-10 12:37
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	3	$392	386	386	+0	open	—	04-04 06:48
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	2	$391	279	279	+0	open	—	03-19 22:17
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$382	305	305	+0	open	—	03-19 19:31
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	2	$377	284	284	+0	open	—	03-04 18:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$371	256	256	+0	open	—	03-17 20:52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	5	$362	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 10:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	7	$357	369	98	+272	open	—	06-14 08:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$326	200	200	+0	open	—	05-27 16:50
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	3	$319	185	185	+0	open	—	04-14 15:43
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$304	411	411	+0	open	—	03-15 21:11
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$303	191	191	+0	open	—	03-13 18:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	3	$297	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 09:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$296	200	200	+0	open	—	05-20 17:24
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$280	200	200	+0	open	—	03-31 03:07
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$277	204	204	+0	open	—	03-23 14:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 18:50:23	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x71d87f…
06-14 08:25:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0xa846f1…
06-14 08:24:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	SELL	42	89¢	$37	0x9581b5…
06-14 08:24:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	SELL	42	89¢	$37	0xb1f391…
06-13 14:15:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	79	72¢	$57	0xca1f15…
06-13 14:07:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	120	73¢	$88	0x74fcd9…
06-13 14:07:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xda9117…
06-13 07:37:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	55	55¢	$30	0x2cd6d4…
06-12 18:06:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	163	48¢	$78	0xe14a1f…
06-12 18:03:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xbd6a98…
06-12 17:27:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	109	49¢	$53	0xd769b2…
06-12 17:26:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xfbea8e…
06-12 17:26:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	91	49¢	$44	0x657e98…
06-12 05:41:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x28e160…
06-12 01:57:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	63	71¢	$44	0xff1b0f…
06-12 01:57:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	137	71¢	$98	0x38d324…
06-11 17:25:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xa799f7…
06-11 17:19:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	124	63¢	$78	0xe6a9e4…
06-11 17:17:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x3bb86b…
06-11 17:15:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x68d7da…
06-11 17:13:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0x203e6c…
06-11 17:11:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x46e401…
06-11 15:34:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	232	70¢	$163	0xa2bc86…
06-11 01:01:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	63	70¢	$44	0x57523f…
06-11 01:01:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x378000…
06-11 01:01:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	70¢	$27	0xdfc4b7…
06-11 01:01:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	78	70¢	$54	0x40c36b…
06-11 01:00:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xe0c7e8…
06-11 01:00:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x73c42b…
06-10 23:22:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x750445…
06-10 23:22:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x428349…
06-10 12:37:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	400	49¢	$196	0xad0473…
06-09 05:41:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	93	69¢	$64	0x265117…
06-09 05:08:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xcb7e9d…
06-08 12:01:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0xcae68e…
06-08 09:48:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	104	77¢	$80	0x3e9c2c…
06-08 09:47:49	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xc316fc…
06-07 22:00:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa23dd3…
06-07 21:12:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1a49ba…
06-07 19:37:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xe8318b…
06-07 13:29:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	96	70¢	$67	0x14ca38…
06-06 18:37:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x01af91…
06-06 18:37:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	55	59¢	$32	0x441d97…
06-06 18:36:58	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xeeba64…
06-06 14:21:28	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x08b26b…
06-05 20:15:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x032a2f…
06-04 21:49:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	130	46¢	$60	0x202ae7…
06-04 21:48:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	46	46¢	$21	0x14d05f…
06-04 21:39:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x4b6e4f…
06-04 21:39:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x07ad5d…
06-04 21:32:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0xd71ffd…
06-04 21:31:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x237ed2…
06-04 21:30:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x559594…
06-04 21:19:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xf0bcdd…
06-04 21:19:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	155	45¢	$70	0xeb5de3…
06-04 21:12:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x1be39b…
06-04 21:11:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x12ce76…
06-04 21:06:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x5e4042…
06-04 20:58:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x0f35a2…
06-04 20:58:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x2a326f…
06-04 20:47:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x3f7464…
06-04 18:32:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x869ad1…
06-04 18:16:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x1db274…
06-04 17:51:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x3df1f6…
06-04 16:56:49	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	32	74¢	$24	0xe44114…
06-04 11:56:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xbc7499…
06-04 06:05:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	178	45¢	$80	0xcec9b4…
06-04 06:04:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x18766b…
06-04 05:54:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x477045…
06-04 05:49:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x185a4c…
06-03 21:34:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	57	61¢	$35	0x8e6be6…
06-03 21:24:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	143	61¢	$87	0xd7d8b7…
06-03 06:08:41	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0x06b537…
06-03 05:56:24	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xe858ae…
06-03 05:56:17	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xa8ce88…
06-03 05:56:12	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x03e2be…
06-03 05:15:17	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	177	90¢	$159	0x4c798b…
06-02 22:57:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x80ba4c…
06-02 20:21:46	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x5ffaa2…
06-02 20:21:25	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x101fbd…
06-02 20:20:51	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xef0c83…
06-02 20:20:41	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x8c45ad…
06-02 20:20:37	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xafcc92…
06-02 20:20:34	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xf4047b…
06-02 20:20:32	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x15d9b1…
06-02 20:20:25	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x949f50…
06-02 20:20:16	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x122632…
06-02 13:09:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xca1a46…
06-02 12:33:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xbbafbf…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	300	85¢	$255	0x868943…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	300	84¢	$252	0x1d2667…
06-01 17:36:43	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x024ddc…
06-01 17:12:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	196	50¢	$98	0x9a8dcd…
06-01 17:12:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa2bb93…
06-01 17:10:51	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0xbb62cb…
06-01 17:01:17	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	89¢	$49	0xc3b219…
06-01 16:57:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x243d36…
06-01 16:47:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x91573d…
06-01 16:28:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x53055e…
06-01 16:23:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xb5177f…