Vapid-Vase 0xc83872…161263 Create alert
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Realized P&L (30d)
+$198
Unrealized P&L
+$123
Hit rate
53.9%
Resolved (30d)
61
Trades (30d)
352
1,700 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$2.46K
$9.74K lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$587
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-07
last 11-04 09:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 104 days
Categories
Politics
67% 60% +$400
Other
26% 62% -$26
Crypto
4% 57% +$4
Tech
1% 57% +$2
Sports
1% 50% -$17
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +91 $35 98¢ $90 +$55 09-27 05:41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +133 $60 64¢ $86 +$26 10-27 15:53
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +94 $65 67¢ $62 -$2 11-01 09:04
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +99 $30 32¢ $32 +$2 11-04 09:49
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +27 $20 92¢ $25 +$5 11-02 16:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +26 $20 78¢ $20 +$0 11-02 16:19
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +20 $5 87¢ $17 +$12 10-29 00:25
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +17 $13 99¢ $17 +$3 06-15 18:06
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +20 $10 78¢ $16 +$6 06-11 07:50
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +22 $15 72¢ $16 +$1 10-29 04:47
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -16 -$14 96¢ $-15 -$1 10-24 08:19
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +15 $10 97¢ $15 +$5 07-30 06:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +16 $10 90¢ $14 +$4 09-26 03:51
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +15 $5 92¢ $14 +$9 11-02 03:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -15 -$14 88¢ $-13 +$1 10-28 20:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +56 $16 22¢ $13 -$3 10-27 13:41
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +21 $10 59¢ $12 +$2 10-27 20:12
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +14 $7 86¢ $12 +$5 05-01 13:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +14 $10 78¢ $11 +$1 11-02 15:09
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +10 $7 98¢ $10 +$3 05-16 08:41
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +32 $9 28¢ $9 $0 10-27 20:06
US recession by end of 2026? No +9 $7 94¢ $8 +$2 05-17 16:41
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +107 $30 8¢ $8 -$22 09-28 19:37
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +8 $5 100¢ $8 +$3 10-29 04:11
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +11 $7 68¢ $8 +$1 05-02 04:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +19 $10 41¢ $8 -$2 10-27 05:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +8 $5 92¢ $7 +$2 08-20 15:44
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No +8 $5 90¢ $7 +$2 10-02 15:20
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +7 $5 92¢ $7 +$2 08-06 08:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +7 $5 91¢ $7 +$2 06-08 10:43