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Realized P&L (30d)
+$145
Unrealized P&L
+$40
Hit rate
51.0%
Resolved (30d)
44
Trades (30d)
376
1,694 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$2.68K
$9.71K lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$861
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-07
last 11-02 23:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Politics
67% 61% +$456
Other
26% 62% -$26
Crypto
4% 57% +$4
Tech
1% 57% +$2
Sports
1% 50% -$17
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No +171 $114 82¢ $139 +$25 11-01 05:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +133 $60 74¢ $99 +$39 10-27 15:53
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +242 $120 24¢ $59 -$61 10-29 12:32
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +94 $65 61¢ $57 -$8 11-01 09:04
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +49 $35 80¢ $39 +$4 11-02 16:59
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +91 $35 42¢ $38 +$3 09-27 05:41
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +107 $30 29¢ $31 +$1 09-28 19:37
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +39 $25 76¢ $30 +$5 11-02 17:49
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +39 $25 74¢ $29 +$4 11-01 21:24
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? No +43 $30 66¢ $29 -$1 11-02 21:24
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +20 $15 100¢ $20 +$5 05-30 11:41
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +27 $20 72¢ $19 $0 11-02 16:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +26 $20 74¢ $19 -$1 11-02 16:19
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +25 $15 76¢ $19 +$4 11-02 15:29
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +30 $20 58¢ $18 -$2 09-17 21:37
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +54 $15 32¢ $17 +$2 10-26 00:55
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +20 $10 82¢ $17 +$7 06-11 07:50
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +17 $13 99¢ $17 +$3 06-15 18:06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +22 $15 75¢ $16 +$1 10-29 04:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +21 $15 76¢ $16 +$1 11-02 13:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +56 $16 28¢ $15 $0 10-27 13:41
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +35 $20 44¢ $15 -$5 11-02 10:09
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -16 -$14 96¢ $-15 -$1 10-24 08:19
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +15 $10 98¢ $15 +$5 07-30 06:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +16 $10 88¢ $14 +$4 09-26 03:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -15 -$14 82¢ $-12 +$2 10-28 20:09
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +19 $15 62¢ $12 -$3 10-05 06:40
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +14 $7 86¢ $12 +$5 05-01 13:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +16 $10 74¢ $12 +$2 10-26 15:56
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +29 $10 38¢ $11 +$1 11-02 01:19