Likely-Civilisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$59

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

135

Trades

1,510

lifetime

Volume

$13.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$199

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-30 14:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 100% +$7

Other

23% 100% +$1

Politics

22% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 145 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+200	$140	99¢	$199	+$59	05-31 15:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+0	$0	82¢	$0	+$0	06-04 12:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$720	600	600	+0	open	—	06-30 14:11
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$691	400	400	+0	open	—	06-30 07:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$604	400	400	+0	open	—	06-04 12:41
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$589	411	639	-228	open	—	06-13 06:05
Fed rate hike in 2026?	10	$573	498	498	+0	open	—	06-19 02:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$498	402	402	+0	open	—	06-09 16:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 20:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$276	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 14:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:37
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	6	$248	200	200	+0	open	—	06-09 14:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-25 15:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:38
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$144	200	200	+0	open	—	06-30 03:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$140	200	0	+200	open	—	05-31 15:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$127	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 04:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	4	$106	86	86	+0	open	—	06-10 11:05
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	3	$100	400	200	+200	open	—	06-10 10:17
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	2	$73	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	4	$71	102	102	+0	open	—	06-27 01:07
sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	2	$69	0	100	-100	open	—	06-08 03:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:52
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	6	$55	76	76	+0	open	—	06-10 01:05
will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	2	$54	75	75	+0	open	—	06-15 19:48
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	7	$47	100	100	+0	open	—	06-23 17:38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$43	53	53	+0	open	—	06-05 18:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	2	$43	52	52	+0	open	—	06-11 08:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$42	51	51	+0	open	—	06-26 05:50
eth updown 5m 1776837000	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-22 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 14:11:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	192	65¢	$125	0x0a4374…
06-30 14:02:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x289f67…
06-30 07:30:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x6d7c4e…
06-30 07:27:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$169	0x8fb446…
06-30 03:57:04	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0xb35051…
06-30 02:57:13	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xdceb62…
06-28 20:23:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xbe5716…
06-27 01:07:05	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	51	35¢	$18	0x6f656e…
06-27 00:35:01	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0xd4b9a4…
06-27 00:35:01	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0xd05658…
06-26 06:11:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x9b1a5f…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0xcbe8f1…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 15:08:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xefcbfc…
06-25 11:42:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x75bf1f…
06-23 17:38:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x610d79…
06-23 17:37:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	85	20¢	$17	0xc61488…
06-23 13:01:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x410475…
06-23 12:58:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x0fc951…
06-23 12:36:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x996104…
06-23 12:25:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	65	27¢	$18	0x748ec4…
06-23 12:25:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x94c2a2…
06-22 23:51:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xcf0ee0…
06-22 13:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x4e8d99…
06-19 02:12:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	140	42¢	$59	0x0a635e…
06-19 02:04:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x8c1766…
06-19 00:36:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	49	42¢	$21	0x3b90a0…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-17 14:33:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0x316316…
06-17 13:26:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x0612ad…
06-17 13:25:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0x16a5be…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-15 19:48:45	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	SELL	75	29¢	$22	0x265ac6…
06-15 06:21:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	98	64¢	$62	0xdb1426…
06-15 06:16:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	98	64¢	$62	0xf02073…
06-15 05:27:39	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	BUY	75	43¢	$32	0x7b8069…
06-13 06:05:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	228	42¢	$96	0x7acf55…
06-12 06:46:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	211	43¢	$91	0x048d04…
06-12 06:17:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	211	43¢	$91	0x68ff03…
06-11 17:06:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x0c3da8…
06-11 17:05:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	140	78¢	$109	0xd04ca4…
06-11 17:05:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0xa7a137…
06-11 17:05:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xf3db15…
06-11 08:21:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0xa9bd4e…
06-11 08:10:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x19f1b5…
06-10 11:05:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	62¢	$27	0x4bb188…
06-10 11:04:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x915be1…
06-10 10:17:49	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x58ba20…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x51eb7a…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x42a2d4…
06-10 01:05:36	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x4b768b…
06-10 01:05:04	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xbe622c…
06-10 01:04:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	22	36¢	$8	0xeb0450…
06-10 01:04:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x2983fe…
06-10 01:03:58	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0x6a52f5…
06-09 19:15:52	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	76	36¢	$27	0xfcf0a1…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-09 16:30:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x9fc8a4…
06-09 16:29:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xa80355…
06-09 14:55:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	120	62¢	$74	0xa75c20…
06-09 14:50:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xcda5b5…
06-09 14:31:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x734bf1…
06-09 14:30:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xfcb147…
06-09 14:30:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	54	62¢	$34	0x9bd396…
06-09 13:59:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x669c8f…
06-08 20:55:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x51b58f…
06-08 20:52:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x55fc6a…
06-08 07:21:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x865b3d…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xc1fc2e…
06-08 03:28:36	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x63f8c8…
06-07 18:34:10	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	90	69¢	$62	0x703089…
06-05 18:53:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	53	41¢	$22	0x052fb7…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	202	60¢	$121	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	202	60¢	$121	0xa08e89…
06-05 07:36:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x3b383a…
06-05 07:14:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x1844fe…
06-04 22:37:15	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	106	65¢	$69	0x8710c7…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	94	65¢	$61	0x76ac12…
06-04 22:27:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x601b99…
06-04 14:44:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xeb6641…
06-04 12:41:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	157	74¢	$116	0x27d987…
06-04 09:09:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x170837…
06-04 06:47:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	74¢	$30	0xf5a4e8…
06-03 22:12:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x13de39…
06-03 19:52:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xd1992c…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-02 15:38:47	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xb3e710…
06-02 14:48:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xcc19bc…
06-02 13:52:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xdb484a…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x1d2667…
06-01 17:21:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x07fe9e…
06-01 15:57:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x19f126…
06-01 12:25:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xbb8566…
05-31 15:03:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x32e8aa…
05-30 22:37:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xf3e841…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 04:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	130	49¢	$64	0x2102ea…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	130	49¢	$64	0x05b826…