Likely-Civilisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$142

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

51.4%

Resolved

1,461

Trades

1,617

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 99% -$2

Politics

27% 14% -$65

Other

23% 88% -$60

Sports

8% 20% +$1

Tech

5% 17% -$15

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+0	$0	11¢	$0	$0	07-07 01:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-01 07:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	8	$848	600	600	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$828	800	800	+0	No	+$0	07-02 16:05
Fed rate hike in 2026?	12	$789	698	698	+0	Yes	$0	07-09 10:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	8	$685	639	639	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 06:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$498	402	402	+0	Yes	+$0	06-09 16:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-30 22:37
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$328	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-08 20:55
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 07:46
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$296	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-16 23:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$280	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-31 15:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$276	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 14:44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$268	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-02 17:35
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:37
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	6	$248	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-09 14:55
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$248	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-04 20:12
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 07:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$240	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-25 15:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	9	$231	197	197	+0	Yes	+$0	07-10 15:01
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$212	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-08 15:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-02 15:38
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	No	-$54	07-13 18:11
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$175	129	129	+0	Yes	+$0	06-16 15:23
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	3	$175	112	112	+0	No	+$0	07-01 15:51
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	3	$151	100	100	+0	open	—	07-13 14:38
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$144	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-30 03:57
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	4	$144	400	400	+0	No	-$8	06-10 10:17
sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	3	$138	100	100	+0	open	—	06-08 03:28
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$127	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 04:53
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	6	$127	108	108	+0	Yes	-$3	07-13 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:11:50	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	49	54¢	$27	0xbded19…
07-13 18:11:38	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xc2c51b…
07-13 14:38:14	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	76¢	$53	0x0f3666…
07-13 14:38:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x0245a5…
07-13 14:37:55	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x152d82…
07-10 15:01:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	62	14¢	$9	0xffc2b0…
07-10 14:22:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x48cd5a…
07-10 13:32:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0x143bb7…
07-10 08:42:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	33	83¢	$27	0x2b95ee…
07-10 08:35:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x1433e7…
07-10 08:32:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0xed1a2c…
07-10 07:42:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	74	83¢	$61	0xa4f135…
07-09 10:10:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0x7d6a22…
07-09 10:10:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x18f36d…
07-08 17:30:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	51	86¢	$44	0x5d7fe9…
07-08 15:26:56	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa31f40…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 14:51:55	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xed6c15…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 01:56:25	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	64	71¢	$45	0xfb07da…
07-06 00:49:40	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	71¢	$45	0x42cb26…
07-04 20:52:23	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x7cdeae…
07-04 20:12:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x08f7b2…
07-04 20:07:20	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x6b0585…
07-02 17:14:53	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x2f664c…
07-02 16:05:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	27¢	$54	0x3170dc…
07-02 15:56:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0xa0b930…
07-02 15:47:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x5315cd…
07-02 02:44:56	over 40m committed to the laso finance public sale 638	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x5cfc71…
07-01 15:51:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	61	78¢	$48	0x553559…
07-01 15:41:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	51	78¢	$40	0x61c098…
07-01 15:33:02	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	112	78¢	$87	0x6bdd85…
07-01 11:08:01	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	70	39¢	$27	0x9f93b2…
07-01 11:00:25	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x72ad17…
07-01 11:00:08	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	73	39¢	$28	0x5b33c3…
07-01 10:26:26	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	75	65¢	$49	0x3a6d5f…
07-01 07:14:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xaa9911…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
07-01 06:20:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0xf1f651…
06-30 14:11:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	192	65¢	$125	0x0a4374…
06-30 14:02:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x289f67…
06-30 07:30:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x6d7c4e…
06-30 07:27:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$169	0x8fb446…
06-30 03:57:04	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0xb35051…
06-30 02:57:13	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xdceb62…
06-30 02:52:34	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	171	25¢	$43	0x5e3827…
06-30 02:38:16	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	171	25¢	$43	0x5929b5…
06-29 22:06:50	Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	77	39¢	$30	0x08c2c5…
06-29 22:03:20	Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x6c90bd…
06-28 20:35:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	42¢	$23	0x6f7d0d…
06-28 20:24:04	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	42¢	$23	0xe4cdf3…
06-28 20:23:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xbe5716…
06-28 02:23:22	Will Bin Win MSI Finals MVP	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x0b7936…
06-28 02:16:07	Will Bin Win MSI Finals MVP	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xb1b4fe…
06-27 01:07:05	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	51	35¢	$18	0x6f656e…
06-27 00:35:01	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0xd4b9a4…
06-27 00:35:01	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0xd05658…
06-26 06:11:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x9b1a5f…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0xcbe8f1…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 15:08:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xefcbfc…
06-25 11:42:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x75bf1f…
06-25 00:55:08	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x61fcda…
06-25 00:54:14	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xa734bf…
06-25 00:45:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	54	60¢	$32	0x90bd39…
06-25 00:39:02	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	54	60¢	$32	0xd72620…
06-23 17:38:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x610d79…
06-23 17:37:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	85	20¢	$17	0xc61488…
06-23 13:01:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x410475…
06-23 12:58:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x0fc951…
06-23 12:36:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x996104…
06-23 12:25:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	65	27¢	$18	0x748ec4…
06-23 12:25:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x94c2a2…
06-22 23:51:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xcf0ee0…
06-22 13:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x4e8d99…
06-19 02:12:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	140	42¢	$59	0x0a635e…
06-19 02:04:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x8c1766…
06-19 00:36:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	49	42¢	$21	0x3b90a0…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-18 07:46:52	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x31c3ed…
06-17 21:15:02	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xdffdac…
06-17 14:33:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0x316316…
06-17 13:26:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x0612ad…
06-17 13:25:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0x16a5be…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-17 01:57:59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x22519d…
06-17 01:56:25	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	48	49¢	$24	0xedcfa5…
06-16 23:53:14	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x0b6fbe…
06-16 17:27:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	70¢	$38	0x188abd…
06-16 15:23:53	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	129	68¢	$88	0xfc6545…
06-16 14:56:19	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	129	68¢	$88	0x8421a7…
06-16 14:53:31	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x4e52e9…
06-16 04:02:21	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	70¢	$38	0xdfc748…
06-15 19:48:45	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	SELL	75	29¢	$22	0x265ac6…
06-15 13:00:57	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	33	69¢	$23	0xf05cd1…
06-15 12:55:18	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0x0a4c71…
06-15 12:54:03	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0xe4bfc7…
06-15 06:21:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	98	64¢	$62	0xdb1426…