Realized P&L
+$8.49K
Unrealized P&L
-$44
Hit rate
54.6%
Resolved
18,110
Trades
650,955
lifetime
Volume
$1.17M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$314
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-10 00:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 203 days
Categories
Other
42% 24% +$3,531
Crypto
27% 22% -$4,354
Politics
18% 33% +$7,005
Sports
11% 30% +$1,828
Tech
2% 28% +$452
Pop-Culture
0% 19% +$22
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No -100 -$74 96¢ $-96 -$22 06-01 19:27
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? No -90 -$26 88¢ $-79 -$53 05-01 21:54
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -100 -$3 28¢ $-28 -$25 05-07 16:52
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -145 -$4 10¢ $-15 -$11 06-04 07:30
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? Yes -199 -$14 4¢ $-8 +$6 05-03 21:17
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -190 -$19 4¢ $-8 +$11 05-22 08:55
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No -9 -$8 91¢ $-8 +$0 09-06 11:20
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -115 -$17 6¢ $-7 +$10 07-02 06:53
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes -200 -$5 3¢ $-7 -$1 05-26 20:11
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -134 -$3 5¢ $-6 -$3 08-13 06:36
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes -212 -$5 2¢ $-5 +$0 05-08 04:10
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes -8 -$5 58¢ $-5 +$0 08-25 05:02
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -100 -$5 5¢ $-5 +$0 08-19 12:03
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -157 -$8 3¢ $-4 +$4 09-06 11:20
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -100 -$3 4¢ $-4 -$1 05-09 06:24
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -200 -$4 2¢ $-4 +$0 05-02 21:22
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -46 -$3 8¢ $-3 $0 05-02 16:35
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes -100 -$6 3¢ $-3 +$3 05-03 04:08
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes -100 -$9 3¢ $-3 +$6 05-05 10:25
Vanta IPO before 2027? Yes -50 -$7 4¢ $-2 +$4 04-30 11:28
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -240 -$3 1¢ $-2 +$1 05-02 22:09
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? Yes -51 -$3 4¢ $-2 +$1 06-04 13:34
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? Yes -172 -$3 1¢ $-2 +$1 04-29 17:57
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Yes -57 -$7 3¢ $-2 +$5 04-29 17:57
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -208 -$2 1¢ $-1 +$1 04-29 14:56
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes -100 -$2 1¢ $-1 +$1 05-11 11:00
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? Yes -35 -$2 4¢ $-1 +$0 06-15 14:23
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes -32 -$4 4¢ $-1 +$3 05-08 19:09
Will Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -59 -$1 2¢ $-1 +$0 08-15 19:42
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -145 -$14 1¢ $-1 +$13 06-09 15:56