Realized P&L
-$1.37K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.90K
Hit rate
47.4%
Resolved
23
Trades
1,497
lifetime
Volume
$404.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$270
Open exposure
$124.0K
27 positions
First seen
2026-03-01
last 06-09 15:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
56%
22%
$-1,029
Other
44%
67%
$-389
Sports
0%
50%
+$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk
• peak 146 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | -43,397 | $-36,830 | 90¢ | $-39275 | $-2,445 | 06-08 02:02 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | +39,495 | $27,906 | 80¢ | $31.8K | +$3,887 | 06-07 03:29 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +13,461 | $9,208 | 70¢ | $9.5K | +$283 | 06-07 23:40 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | +20,230 | $6,732 | 34¢ | $6.8K | +$45 | 06-09 13:03 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | -6,666 | $-5,934 | 94¢ | $-6266 | $-332 | 06-07 19:13 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | +18,030 | $5,235 | 32¢ | $5.7K | +$444 | 06-08 22:35 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | -5,407 | $-4,909 | 92¢ | $-4948 | $-39 | 06-06 13:09 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | -4,738 | $-4,217 | 90¢ | $-4240 | $-24 | 06-06 10:22 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +16,100 | $4,184 | 24¢ | $3.9K | $-320 | 06-09 10:01 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -2,423 | $-1,769 | 76¢ | $-1829 | $-61 | 05-31 19:24 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | +2,170 | $850 | 72¢ | $1.6K | +$724 | 06-08 03:19 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | +1,941 | $1,384 | 81¢ | $1.6K | +$188 | 05-28 22:27 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,000 | 62¢ | $1.2K | +$250 | 05-29 07:16 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | +12,272 | $1,126 | 10¢ | $1.2K | +$46 | 06-07 18:05 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +8,000 | $960 | 15¢ | $1.2K | +$200 | 06-04 18:26 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | No | +1,670 | $1,002 | 62¢ | $1.0K | +$25 | 06-08 14:35 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | +1,138 | $768 | 64¢ | $723 | $-45 | 06-09 13:12 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -1,000 | $-740 | 72¢ | $-715 | +$25 | 06-05 17:03 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | +744 | $241 | 44¢ | $327 | +$86 | 06-01 01:42 | |
| Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | -115 | $-112 | 97¢ | $-111 | +$1 | 06-09 15:13 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | -150 | $-103 | 72¢ | $-107 | $-4 | 06-09 15:13 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | -326 | $-225 | 28¢ | $-90 | +$135 | 06-08 01:33 | |
| No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? | No | -8 | $-7 | 94¢ | $-7 | +$0 | 06-03 23:19 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | -5 | $-5 | 96¢ | $-5 | +$0 | 06-05 17:03 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | -5 | $-5 | 95¢ | $-5 | +$0 | 06-09 15:13 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | +29 | $3 | 14¢ | $4 | +$0 | 06-06 08:36 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | No | +1,877 | $170 | 0¢ | $2 | $-168 | 06-07 21:18 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 12 | $53.0K | 31,311 | 31,311 | +0 | open | — | 05-15 06:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 8 | $37.7K | 0 | 44,397 | -44,397 | open | — | 06-08 02:02 |
| will another country strike iran by march 31 833 | 101 | $35.4K | 28,085 | 21,883 | +6,202 | open | — | 04-01 04:12 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 78 | $27.9K | 39,495 | 0 | +39,495 | open | — | 06-07 03:29 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | 61 | $19.7K | 10,782 | 12,412 | -1,630 | open | — | 05-03 14:00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 13 | $18.3K | 15,003 | 15,002 | +0 | open | — | 05-23 01:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 88 | $14.4K | 18,325 | 4,864 | +13,461 | open | — | 06-07 23:40 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | 67 | $10.7K | 14,152 | 14,152 | +0 | open | — | 05-24 06:26 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 14 | $10.6K | 30,394 | 31,345 | -952 | open | — | 04-03 16:00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 76 | $10.3K | 8,441 | 9,000 | -559 | open | — | 04-08 02:21 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 15 | $10.1K | 23,380 | 24,380 | -1,000 | open | — | 04-03 16:23 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | 6 | $9.9K | 5,928 | 5,928 | +0 | open | — | 05-03 14:00 |
| us iran nuclear deal by july 31 | 40 | $6.8K | 10,844 | 0 | +10,844 | open | — | 06-09 06:30 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 44 | $6.7K | 20,230 | 0 | +20,230 | open | — | 06-09 13:03 |
| Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? | 12 | $6.7K | 6,739 | 2,087 | +4,652 | open | — | 05-18 00:24 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 20 | $5.9K | 0 | 6,666 | -6,666 | open | — | 06-07 19:13 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 3 | $5.2K | 18,030 | 0 | +18,030 | open | — | 06-08 22:35 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | 12 | $5.2K | 3,000 | 3,000 | +0 | open | — | 05-18 07:53 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | 32 | $5.2K | 7,506 | 5,867 | +1,639 | open | — | 06-08 03:19 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | 23 | $4.9K | 0 | 5,407 | -5,407 | open | — | 06-06 13:09 |
| israel closes its airspace by june 15 687 | 14 | $4.8K | 7,066 | 6,014 | +1,052 | open | — | 06-08 02:46 |
| will qatar strike iran by march 31 | 39 | $4.4K | 5,113 | 4,113 | +1,000 | open | — | 03-07 08:26 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | 29 | $4.2K | 0 | 4,738 | -4,738 | open | — | 06-06 10:22 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 47 | $4.2K | 16,100 | 0 | +16,100 | open | — | 06-09 10:01 |
| us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894 | 23 | $3.6K | 3,000 | 3,000 | +0 | open | — | 04-08 00:33 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | 17 | $3.5K | 4,521 | 3,989 | +532 | open | — | 05-18 21:34 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | 32 | $3.4K | 3,015 | 1,005 | +2,010 | open | — | 05-19 14:43 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | 6 | $3.3K | 4,000 | 0 | +4,000 | open | — | 05-20 00:28 |
| will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on april 3 | 25 | $3.2K | 4,136 | 0 | +4,136 | open | — | 03-31 13:17 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | 6 | $3.2K | 4,823 | 2,823 | +2,000 | open | — | 05-23 01:50 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | 149 | $701.5K | 55,845 | 06-09 22:54 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 139 | $36.4M | 59,322 | 06-09 22:52 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 137 | $1.62M | 25,862 | 06-09 22:52 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 134 | $144.5K | 1,759 | 06-09 08:04 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | 132 | $65.9K | 6,497 | 06-08 10:59 |
| Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b | 124 | $189.5K | 3,477 | 06-09 22:39 |
| Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | 119 | $1.12M | 14,566 | 06-09 22:45 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 112 | $284.1K | 22,896 | 06-01 05:19 |