Realized P&L
-$1.37K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.90K
Hit rate
47.4%
Resolved
23
Trades
1,497
lifetime
Volume
$404.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$270
Open exposure
$124.0K
27 positions
First seen
2026-03-01
last 06-09 15:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
56% 22% $-1,029
Other
44% 67% $-389
Sports
0% 50% +$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -43,397 $-36,830 90¢ $-39275 $-2,445 06-08 02:02
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No +39,495 $27,906 80¢ $31.8K +$3,887 06-07 03:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +13,461 $9,208 70¢ $9.5K +$283 06-07 23:40
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No +20,230 $6,732 34¢ $6.8K +$45 06-09 13:03
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No -6,666 $-5,934 94¢ $-6266 $-332 06-07 19:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No +18,030 $5,235 32¢ $5.7K +$444 06-08 22:35
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No -5,407 $-4,909 92¢ $-4948 $-39 06-06 13:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No -4,738 $-4,217 90¢ $-4240 $-24 06-06 10:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +16,100 $4,184 24¢ $3.9K $-320 06-09 10:01
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes -2,423 $-1,769 76¢ $-1829 $-61 05-31 19:24
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +2,170 $850 72¢ $1.6K +$724 06-08 03:19
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +1,941 $1,384 81¢ $1.6K +$188 05-28 22:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,000 62¢ $1.2K +$250 05-29 07:16
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +12,272 $1,126 10¢ $1.2K +$46 06-07 18:05
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes +8,000 $960 15¢ $1.2K +$200 06-04 18:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No +1,670 $1,002 62¢ $1.0K +$25 06-08 14:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No +1,138 $768 64¢ $723 $-45 06-09 13:12
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -1,000 $-740 72¢ $-715 +$25 06-05 17:03
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +744 $241 44¢ $327 +$86 06-01 01:42
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes -115 $-112 97¢ $-111 +$1 06-09 15:13
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -150 $-103 72¢ $-107 $-4 06-09 15:13
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes -326 $-225 28¢ $-90 +$135 06-08 01:33
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No -8 $-7 94¢ $-7 +$0 06-03 23:19
Iran leadership change by June 30? No -5 $-5 96¢ $-5 +$0 06-05 17:03
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No -5 $-5 95¢ $-5 +$0 06-09 15:13
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +29 $3 14¢ $4 +$0 06-06 08:36
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No +1,877 $170 $2 $-168 06-07 21:18