Realized P&L
-$10.5K
Unrealized P&L
-$20.7K
Hit rate
61.4%
Resolved
234
Trades
3,497
lifetime
Volume
$841.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$241
Open exposure
$76.2K
23 positions
First seen
2026-03-01
last 08-08 16:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 82 days
Categories
Other
54% 51% +$36,897
Politics
46% 47% -$46,140
Sports
1% 22% -$1,221
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -51,283 -$41,868 94¢ $-48462 -$6,594 05-10 20:58
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +9,258 $3,219 92¢ $8.6K +$5,344 06-01 01:42
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -5,653 -$4,360 90¢ $-5116 -$757 06-11 19:21
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655 No +6,139 $4,320 68¢ $4.2K -$145 08-08 01:36
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +4,597 $3,475 85¢ $3.9K +$428 08-07 22:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -2,857 -$1,971 80¢ $-2271 -$300 05-04 18:38
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 Yes +12,491 $6,922 12¢ $1.6K -$5,361 08-08 16:33
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 Yes +8,183 $4,401 7¢ $573 -$3,828 08-07 08:48
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 Yes +3,125 $1,000 12¢ $359 -$641 08-07 16:07
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 Yes +17,197 $7,635 2¢ $344 -$7,291 08-07 03:11
us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236 Yes +8,616 $800 3¢ $289 -$511 08-05 13:24
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date Yes +2,852 $1,000 10¢ $271 -$729 08-05 01:43
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No +175 $100 88¢ $154 +$54 05-10 02:27
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +79 $50 92¢ $73 +$23 05-10 02:05
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -605 -$88 10¢ $-57 +$30 08-02 00:51
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +28 $20 86¢ $24 +$4 05-10 02:11
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes +401 $50 4¢ $15 -$35 05-10 01:58
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +131 $50 11¢ $14 -$36 05-10 02:21
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +7 $5 91¢ $6 +$1 05-10 02:23
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -5 -$3 92¢ $-5 -$1 06-09 15:13
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +29 $3 12¢ $3 $0 06-06 08:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +0 $343 87¢ $0 -$343 05-24 04:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +0 $0 97¢ $0 $0 05-15 02:27